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In National Polling, Itís Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)
New York Times ^ | 10/19/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.

However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; natesilver; waaaah
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To: radpolis

The poor communists. They just can’t get their heads around the fact that freedom lovers are rejecting them once again. LOL! They’ll get over it. There’s a “utopia” for them somewhere. It’s just not on THIS planet.


21 posted on 10/19/2012 8:02:55 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)
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To: radpolis

With two exceptions, they’ve always picked the winner, back to FDR: http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx


22 posted on 10/19/2012 8:03:37 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: fortheDeclaration

Many are oversampling registered voters while Gallup is doing likely voters.

Pray for America


23 posted on 10/19/2012 8:06:05 PM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
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To: MNJohnnie

NE and ME assign their electors by congressional district, then 2 for the state, not according to the national popular vote at all.


24 posted on 10/19/2012 8:07:15 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: radpolis; All

Nate Silver ragging on Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster of 2008:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/27/1137007/-Nate-Silver-Nugget-Rasmussen-was-the-worst-of-the-lot


25 posted on 10/19/2012 8:10:11 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: radpolis
Nate Silver is deeply disappointed with the Gallup poll.


26 posted on 10/19/2012 8:11:18 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: goldstategop

Look Nate Silver in 2010 ended up predicting the election in most cases but what is hard to find in writing, but I remember, is he changed his October 31st final stats by about a third. Before that he spewed the same crap he is spewing now that promotes his liberal roots being the son of a MSU liberal professor and a mom who is a nut liberal.


27 posted on 10/19/2012 8:15:00 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: mrsmith

First, we are past the point of even watching national polls. They mean nothing at this point. This election is down to 4-6 states.

Secondly, watch the campaigns and what they are doing and where they are going. They both have much better polling and other tracking tools about the state of the race.

Suffolk said a week ago, that VA, NC, and FL were all in Romney’s corner, so they were moving to other states. Now we see that being played out in NC. And the polls in VA and FL are trending pretty strongly Romney.

Of course Obama can’t come out and say they are giving up on FL or VA (or even NC). Because that would cause massive panic in their organizations and with the voters. But the media and the close insiders know what is going on.

To me, they are spending most of their time in OH. Seems to be political ground zero for both campaigns.


28 posted on 10/19/2012 8:18:12 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: radpolis

Polls aren’t the only measure of how a race is going. Look at other factors.

Suffolk polling pulled out of FL, VA, and NC a week or two ago. Romney has pulled resources out of NC.

State polls show a close race in traditionally Dem states like WI, PA, MI and IA. NH and OH also show close races. Romney is ahead in CO.

Romney is absolutely killing in traditionally conservative states, so it’s not hard to believe that nationally his numbers would be strong.

Maybe he’s not leading by 6 or 7 points nationally, but 3 to 4 points wouldn’t be hard to believe and that would be enough for him to win the electoral college, IMO.


29 posted on 10/19/2012 8:23:53 PM PDT by randita
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To: Fee

I’m not sure. I know Washington State pledges their electoral votes to the popular winner, but I don’t know if that includes having to win the state. From an article in the Olympian they talk of a compact of states which includes Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey. How this plays out this election cycle has got me a little interested.


30 posted on 10/19/2012 8:28:15 PM PDT by soupbone1
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To: crosslink

Memo to the clueless moron Nate Silver:

Its the white men, stupid!


31 posted on 10/19/2012 8:33:13 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Perdogg
That's true. Your point 2 is interesting because it raises the question of what happens if the compacting states reach 270 and they try to enforce it, and one state gets cold feet and reneges.

The States have the power to allocate their electoral college votes as they wish, but they don't have the power to compel another state in a compact that Congress did not approve.

-PJ

32 posted on 10/19/2012 8:35:47 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: gswilder

Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.


33 posted on 10/19/2012 8:46:51 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: gswilder

Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.


34 posted on 10/19/2012 8:46:51 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: radpolis

“However, the poll’s results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race”

Maybe Nate forgot to read the recent UPI and KOS/PPP polls also showing a significant Romney lead.


35 posted on 10/19/2012 8:50:53 PM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: goldstategop
Last week I was polled by Quinnipiac. Although the poll was mainly concerned with NY matters it did ask "if the election were held today.......etc.
now the person who asked the questions on this poll was unmistakably African-American which raises the question-how many white Romney voters felt comfortable telling her their true voting preferences (like me)?
36 posted on 10/19/2012 8:55:37 PM PDT by Larry381 ("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")
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To: radpolis

It is interesting that Gallup is so different than the others. I think it’s because they are not weighting their samples, but letting their likely voter screen drive the results. It seems many of the polls are weighting the samples. I think Rasmussen is weighting it +4 Dem.

One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?


37 posted on 10/19/2012 8:55:46 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: radpolis

dang..the lib media going in on Gallup. I assume Gallup is gonna fall back in line soon.


38 posted on 10/19/2012 8:58:10 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: TomEwall
One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?

One main reason was because Zero had a substantial lead among women-which appears to not be the case anymore.

39 posted on 10/19/2012 9:00:12 PM PDT by Larry381 ("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")
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To: radpolis

I wonder if the Obama campaign is still sharing their internal polling with him


40 posted on 10/19/2012 9:11:43 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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