Skip to comments.In National Polling, Itís Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)
Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.
However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
What do the hetero pollsters think?
He has a point. Gallup’s numbers are so far from everyone else that it’s difficult to believe. Hoping it’s true, but we’ll have to wait and see.
They also know which way the momentum is shifting.
Clearly, the last debate did nothing to stop Romney's momentum.
With each debate the American People get more comfortable with Romney as President.
I think Gallup is picking up tea party surge that other pollsters are not. .”Feels a lot like 2010 and scott walker recall.
I’m curious about the States which changed their electoral votes to reflect national popular vote and what impact this would have on Romney.
No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.
I remember back in 1996 when almost every pollster was predicting that Clinton would win by 20+ percentage points. I think one had Clinton up by 25 points over Dole!
Only one lone pollster hit it on the money and showed Dole losing by 8% That was Zogby. Of course, he has managed to live down his reputation ever since.
So yes, one lone pollster all out on its own can be and in times past has been right, and the rest of the herd wrong.
That said, Gallup (like Pew) has a past history of wild swings in its numbers.
Basically the change should be insignificant. Romney may gain 1 in Maine and lose 2 in NE. If he wins NH and Ohio that will be an insignificant difference
Do you know which state did that? Please list.
The homosexual statistician was on the Daily Show yesterday trying to plug his new book. He knows has to do it now because once Obama is gone, so will his credibility.
None. This law is not effect for two reasons.
1. Not enough states have approved the law. If the did it would favor RR because three of the States are California, Ilinois, and Maryland.
2. They may face a constituitonal challenged, which is not clearcut, because state compacts require, per the constitution, approval from Congress. However, the Constituiton allows state to assign electors however they want.
Problem for Nate is the state polls lag behind the National polls. So the state polls should fall in line next 10 days.
So when both the National and the State polls swing against Nate’s opinions, where then is he going to run and hide?
Nebraska and Maine are the only ones in effect for this election.
The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.
Gallup has been polling presidential elections since FDR.
Do you weight these polls more heavily, or the same as a poll by an ex-Catholic college in Poughkeepsie NY using questionable methodology? (Silver seems to be weighing results from Poughkeepsie more heavily.)
I remember that well. Few places reported Zogby because his polling did not conform to the image the media wanted to create. Rush Limbaugh was one of the few who ever mentioned Zogby.
Nate Silver is wrong and Gallup is correct.
It predicted Obama’s win down to the final point on Oct 18th, 2008.
He can’t dismiss it simply because it shows a result he doesn’t like. I think Mitt Romney holds a very strong lead. Other pollsters just don’t want to come out and say it.
Every one knows Romney is going to win this election and it won’t be a close one at all.
The poor communists. They just can’t get their heads around the fact that freedom lovers are rejecting them once again. LOL! They’ll get over it. There’s a “utopia” for them somewhere. It’s just not on THIS planet.
With two exceptions, they’ve always picked the winner, back to FDR: http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx
Many are oversampling registered voters while Gallup is doing likely voters.
Pray for America
NE and ME assign their electors by congressional district, then 2 for the state, not according to the national popular vote at all.
Nate Silver ragging on Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster of 2008:
Look Nate Silver in 2010 ended up predicting the election in most cases but what is hard to find in writing, but I remember, is he changed his October 31st final stats by about a third. Before that he spewed the same crap he is spewing now that promotes his liberal roots being the son of a MSU liberal professor and a mom who is a nut liberal.
First, we are past the point of even watching national polls. They mean nothing at this point. This election is down to 4-6 states.
Secondly, watch the campaigns and what they are doing and where they are going. They both have much better polling and other tracking tools about the state of the race.
Suffolk said a week ago, that VA, NC, and FL were all in Romney’s corner, so they were moving to other states. Now we see that being played out in NC. And the polls in VA and FL are trending pretty strongly Romney.
Of course Obama can’t come out and say they are giving up on FL or VA (or even NC). Because that would cause massive panic in their organizations and with the voters. But the media and the close insiders know what is going on.
To me, they are spending most of their time in OH. Seems to be political ground zero for both campaigns.
Polls aren’t the only measure of how a race is going. Look at other factors.
Suffolk polling pulled out of FL, VA, and NC a week or two ago. Romney has pulled resources out of NC.
State polls show a close race in traditionally Dem states like WI, PA, MI and IA. NH and OH also show close races. Romney is ahead in CO.
Romney is absolutely killing in traditionally conservative states, so it’s not hard to believe that nationally his numbers would be strong.
Maybe he’s not leading by 6 or 7 points nationally, but 3 to 4 points wouldn’t be hard to believe and that would be enough for him to win the electoral college, IMO.
I’m not sure. I know Washington State pledges their electoral votes to the popular winner, but I don’t know if that includes having to win the state. From an article in the Olympian they talk of a compact of states which includes Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey. How this plays out this election cycle has got me a little interested.
Memo to the clueless moron Nate Silver:
Its the white men, stupid!
The States have the power to allocate their electoral college votes as they wish, but they don't have the power to compel another state in a compact that Congress did not approve.
Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.
Paul Ryan is head to PA. It is in play.
“However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race”
Maybe Nate forgot to read the recent UPI and KOS/PPP polls also showing a significant Romney lead.
It is interesting that Gallup is so different than the others. I think it’s because they are not weighting their samples, but letting their likely voter screen drive the results. It seems many of the polls are weighting the samples. I think Rasmussen is weighting it +4 Dem.
One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?
dang..the lib media going in on Gallup. I assume Gallup is gonna fall back in line soon.
One main reason was because Zero had a substantial lead among women-which appears to not be the case anymore.
I wonder if the Obama campaign is still sharing their internal polling with him
Nate mentioned 60 seats were possible but couldn’t bring himself to embrace that number and settled for a 50 something final estimate.
Charlie Cook was predicting 60 seats.
So was Mark Halprin.
2010 tarnished the golden boy’s crystal ball.
Yes, as the election draws near, that is the sample that matters and it will show the real poll numbers.
In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.
The liberal press will doubt and downplay any poll that does not show their savior leading. They had better get used to saying President Romney.