Posted on 04/01/2006 10:55:38 AM PST by Westpole
Here is a basic question. If we could wave a magic wand and in a short time every illegal worker returned to his native county, would we be richer or poorer?
The answer is substantially poorer. In fact it would trigger an economic crisis that could well shatter our economy. Various economic models have tried to answer whether we could get alone without foriegn workers but no model has yet captured the domino effect of a complete elimination of foriegn workers. No employer wants to be quoted on his business or industry's dependancy for obvious reasons. But this is the scenario that would unfold if that magic wand was waved.
There has been some discussion of the negative effects in the agricultural industry where overwhelming the workers are Mexican migrants. Some looney congressmen yesterday suggest prison workers could do that work. But agriculture would be the least of our problems. At least 50% of the construction sites across the country would be shut down. Ditto for a substantial portion of hotels, motels, and restaurants.
The answer is substantially poorer. In fact it would trigger an economic crisis that could well shatter our economy. Various economic models have tried to answer whether we could get alone without foriegn workers but no model has yet captured the domino effect of a complete elimination of foriegn workers. No employer wants to be quoted on his business or industry's dependancy for obvious reasons. But this is the scenario that would unfold if that magic wand was waved.
There has been some discussion of the negative effects in the agricultural industry where overwhelming the workers are Mexican migrants. Some looney congressmen yesterday suggest prison workers could do that work. But agriculture would be the least of our problems. At least 50% of the construction sites across the country would be shut down. Ditto for a substantial portion of hotels, motels, and restaurants. In varying proptions other industries including manufactoring would face similar shut downs.
In effect the elimination of foriegn workers would act like a strike. When a union strikes the workers stop working and the business shuts down or hires replacements workers. Oh yes the anti-immigration say but that simply means employers would pay more and American workers would fill in.
The problem with this wishful thinking is that replacement workers would have to come totally from the ranks of the unemployed. And there simply are not nearly enough unemployed workers to fill the needs. Remember that even crop picking requires some skills, construction work is highly skilled and even work associated with the hospitality industry requires enormous training and a dependable work force.
So if a company could not find replacement workers it would shut down...and that would mean ironically greater unemployment. Non of the advanced skill trades for example in HVAC, electrical, plumbing etc in the construction industry could do their work if there were no workers available to set up the forms to build the building in the first place.
This country has never faced a massive general strike. Even in the days when the United Auto Workers could threaten to bring the country to its knees by stopping auto production would pale in comparison to such a massive withdrawal of labor.
Those that have fanned the flames of anti-immigrant prejudice appeal to racial fears and security fears risk our economy with their solutions. The reality is no there are not sufficient Americans to do the work foriegn workers are doing.
Despite all the dust up over how tough our policies should be on illegal immigration the law of supply and demand usually trumps. Remember before we had the War on Terror we had the War on Drugs. Similar calls were heard to close the border. A powerful new police force was formed to stop the contraband, the DEA. Well so far nothing hoped for as occured. Drug smuggling is unabated though our prisons are full. Somehow unless we deal with diminishing demand....the supply will be there.
There is no border in the world between such a rich country and such a poor country as the United States and Mexico. The result is we need vast numbers of workers...coincidentally they need the jobs. Rather than rail against this our policy should be to embrace economic growth and opportunity. The president is from Texas and knows first hand that it makes much more sense to adopt a sensible, econmically viable guest worker program than either the status quo of condoning a shadow work force or the extremely onerous suggestions that we attempt to get rid at whatever cost every illegal worker in the country. So what would happen if all the foriegn workers stayed home? You would hear a giant sucking sound....of our economy doing down the drain.
Beat it loser...
Right, because the leeches are breaking the law.
Yeah. Forget about those millions of more qualified people around the world who are trying to get here legally. Let's just give citizenship to Mexicans with a 4th grade education.
Sudhir, who speaks English, and is a college graduate, shouldn't bother applying. We need illiterate blue collar workers more. /sarc
Good post. I agree completely. Too bad many here on FR seem not to understand basic economics.
Interesting....Ben Stein, Michael Medved, and others basically agree.....and WHO are YOU to tell others to BEAT IT?
Except for the fruit and fern pickers the illegals used to stay home.
Why are they so needed now and not then?
I find it impossible to believe that no legal Americans will do jobs in construction or the hotel/motel/restraunt industry.
susie
More Bullsh$t. America can survive anything including losing a bunch of third world turds that are looting our national treasury.
Oh the horror. I shudder to think.
How did America survive these 200-plus years without hoardes of illegal Mexican workers flooding across the border.
I'm stumped. How 'bout you?
Here's an idea; let's try it for twenty years and see if you're right.
Close the border and we'll talk about the illegals remaining in this country.
Well, this is a bunch of hooey.
Of COURSE these jobs are getting done in areas of the country where (so far) the ILLEGALS have not infiltrated.
Sheesh.
We can get ALL the workers we need LEGALLY!
Illegals are not needed.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Lame article on BS premise.
Is there a link to an article?
It's a Vanity.
You're right- we'd be just like Canada, Australia or New Zealand- none of which has large-scale immigration of unskilled labor. And life is a living hell there. (sarcasm)
I WILL agree that in 15-20 years we'll have a demographic crisis. Too few young people to work and take care of the older people. Then we may well have a need for mass immigration. But we don't now.
The Teamsters brought the country to it's knees ( for a short while ) during the Carter years.
You don't mention how the you get the illegals already here to come in from the cold.
you don't have a solution either.
If sending 'em all back shuts the country down, shut it down.
You are dillusional if you really think that all, or even most, of the businesses in America willingly or knowingly hire illegal hispanic workers.
Those which do are a criminal minority, and should be fined heavily the first two times they are caught, and should face a small jail sentence the third time they are caught.
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