Posted on 12/06/2009 11:42:52 AM PST by decimon
The Earth's temperature may be 30-50 percent more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than has previously been estimated, reports a new study published in Nature Geoscience this week
In the long term, the Earth's temperature may be 30-50% more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than has previously been estimated, reports a new study published in Nature Geoscience this week.
The results show that components of the Earth's climate system that vary over long timescales – such as land-ice and vegetation – have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but these factors are often neglected in current climate models.
Dan Lunt, from the University of Bristol, and colleagues compared results from a global climate model to temperature reconstructions of the Earth's environment three million years ago when global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively high. The temperature reconstructions were derived using data from three million-year-old sediments on the ocean floor.
Lunt said, "We found that, given the concentrations of carbon dioxide prevailing three million years ago, the model originally predicted a significantly smaller temperature increase than that indicated by the reconstructions. This led us to review what was missing from the model."
The authors demonstrate that the increased temperatures indicated by the reconstructions can be explained if factors that vary over long timescales, such as land-ice and vegetation, are included in the model. This is primarily because changes in vegetation and ice lead to more sunlight being absorbed, which in turn increases warming.
Including these long-term processes in the model resulted in an increased temperature response of the Earth to carbon dioxide, indicating that the Earth's temperature is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than previously recognised. Climate models used by bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change often do not fully include these long-term processes, thus these models do not entirely represent the sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to carbon dioxide.
Alan Haywood, a co-author on the study from the University of Leeds, said "If we want to avoid dangerous climate change, this high sensitivity of the Earth to carbon dioxide should be taken into account when defining targets for the long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations".
Lunt added: "This study has shown that studying past climates can provide important insights into how the Earth might change in the future."
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Notes to Editors
A high resolution version of the image can be downloaded from here: https://www.bris.ac.uk/fluff/u/inclel/rpj2a57H_ZzLx_B_WoXnVgEL/
Image caption: The temperature response of the Earth (in degrees C) to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels (280 parts per million by volume) to higher levels (400 parts per million by volume).
(a) shows predicted global temperatures when processes that adjust on relatively short-term timescales (for example sea-ice, clouds, and water vapour) are included in the model
(b) includes additional long-tem processes that adjust on relatively long timescales (vegetation and land-ice).
This research was funded by the Research Council UK and the British Antarctic Survey.
The paper: Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data by Daniel J. Lunt, Alan M. Haywood, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ulrich Salzmann, Paul J. Valdes and Harry J. Dowsett. Published online in Nature Geoscience on 6 December 2009.
Sensitivity training ping.
Is this a ‘humor’ article?
Hmmm ... sounds like the kids in Bristol are no longer sharp as a crystal.
A word to the wise, please don't click on any links. Mostly likely they have a hit counter racking up the hits to support a bullshit 'scientist consensus' tally. Jeeshh!!!!!
Only problem is the study is based on fraudulent data. It is a situation of putting garbage in so we get garbage out.
They used to call it “GIGO”.
The MSM won’t report ClimateGate, so we have to.
Tell everybody you know - BEST ClimateGate clips:
My God!
We are killing ourselves 30-50% more than we originally thought!
Where's my wallet, we need to stop this bullet train! ROTFLMAO!
Put another way: Previous studies, made by the same people, are a bunch of hooey.
But we can trust this study!
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE .... unless the United States is destroyed and becomes a turd world country.
What they DON’T say is that the CO2 concentrations FOLLOW the temperature changes and doesn’t CAUSE the changes.
These headlines always have qualifying words in them, “may”, “might”, “could”. This is not science, it’s guessing games.
LOL... more charlatans at work.
Oh!. Pick Me!!! I know: Your intelligence and credibility.
Complete BS.
He has no way to know the prevailing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 3 million years ago. No way to know how much volcanic activity was effecting the climate. No way to know the sunspot cycle.
This is just more political propaganda pretending to be "Science".
Since most people are sick of reading about this crap, here’s the money quote:
“The results show that components of the Earth’s climate system that vary over long timescales – such as land-ice and vegetation – have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but these factors are often neglected in current climate models.”
Note the last sentence. 18,000 years ago the spot where I’m sitting would have been covered with ice. The polar bears are going to be just fine.
When is this BS going to stop?
bullgore!
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