This is an over-generalization, but for this purpose the polls mostly equals the media. That’s my main point - just a point of reference and perspective here...
I agree that over-confidence is a fool’s errand at this point. I’m just looking at current trends, which can and will be in motion over the next 5 months.
Interestingly, there are no sitting US Senators this go-around, at present. Of course, Santorum lost his Senate re-election bid, and there are a few others who tried a run at the Senate and were unsuccessful.
Just thought that was an interested point, especially after so many Senators in the past few cycles (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Biden, Kerry, McCain, etc).
PPP released another poll[pdf] a month ago with the loaded claim that Americans supported Charlie Sheen for president over Sarah Palin, so take with a mega-grain of salt.
If my 50-50 prediction is true, it will be interesting to see how the organization / rules vote and negotiation goes, and whether either side can cherry-pick off a party defector. I wouldn't hold your breath on a Lieberman defection if I were you, but I wonder if anyone else could be tempted?
"This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding."
The key clause is "in Pursuance thereof".
This means that U.S. laws that are made in violation/contrary to the Constitution are not the supreme law (because an unconstitutional law by definition cannot be the supreme Constitutional law of the land). I think these lawsuits are setting up an unavoidable Supreme Court decision. Most of these State laws against the healthcare purchase mandate specifically reference that the State finds this law to be unconstitutional. This is a circular battle between the States and the federal government until the constitutionality matter is settled.
Whether or not the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of that is another discussion... If rights are inherent, and the Constitution is the duty of everyone to uphold.....?