This has been bugging me for some time. I have my own opinions, but I'd like to hear others. With respect to Israel, I believe AQ realizes that a major terrorist act would lead to the Israeli military opening up a major can of whoop-ass on a few neighboring countries. As for Iran, there's certainly reason for them to be hit. There's just about as much anti-Iranian rants as there are anti "Zionist" ones on the jihadi forums. My best guess is that the Iranians are holding some high-level AQ members hostage.
