3 scenarios:
1. A repeat of years passed when IDF goes into Gaza, smashes it up, other parties negotiate a cease fire, IDF leaves, Hamas rearms for several years and rinse and repeat.
2. IDF essentially makes Gaza uninhabitable causing a refugee crisis wherein the former Gazans end up in a number of Arab states and in Europe/USA via resettlement programs.
3. This situation turn into a much broader ME war drawing in Iran and others. Gaza is a sideshow in such a scenario and would be leveled to deny a base of operations to IDF enemies.
What other scenarios are possible?
It’s highly likely your #3 might happen *this time* (we’ll see).
That scenario could actually trigger an international confrontation with Iran, Russia, and others if the response escalates to using nuclear or neutron weaponry.
The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.
Escape from New York.
Turn the whole thing into an open air prison
Few Americans even after 9/11 comprehend the depth of the hatred and antipathy held by Arabs and their sympathizers against Americans and the United States. Israel will invade invade Gaza and in their vengeance will destroy much and kill many. Afterwards the internet will be full of the images of that destruction which will include destroyed homes, buildings mosques and of course thousands of dead Muslims. It won’t stop when the Israelis declare victory and their borders will again be secured. Hamas sympathizers within the US will seek their revenge. Ironically the number of such sympathizers is now more numerous than before 9/11. Also American security agencies such as the FBI may be good tracking Catholics who like the Latin mass, parents who attend school board meetings and MAGA voters but their ability to gather intelligence and tract real terrorists is not very good. Also the CIA and NSA completely failed to detect that Hamas had accumulated such a huge sophisticated arsenal or how it was transported. Over the next three months and especially during the holiday season Americans should beware and be very alert.
“2. IDF essentially makes Gaza uninhabitable causing a refugee crisis wherein the former Gazans end up in a number of Arab states and in Europe/USA via resettlement programs.”
That seems to be Netanyahu’s plan but who’s to say the US/Europe would want to accept them? If there’s a humanitarian crisis in Gaza the whole region could explode.
4. Take prominent Hamas and Pali leaders and families prisoner. When an Israeli is killed, force them to eat bacon and hang them on TV. To beat the foe, you must be meaner than the foe—More Savage, more cruel. Bomb Mosques (on Friday when they are full) Bomb Hospitals, schools and homes. Target women and children as well as all the out of work Young Men. War is Hell. Bring hell to their front door.
What other scenarios are possible?
Failure Theatre, unfortunately.
It is at the absolute limit of Israeli military capability to invade and retake Gaza.
Grozny in 1995 had ~400K population, and Gaza is over 2 million.
The Russians used 40-60K troops with massive bombing and a lot of losses, and it took two months.
Israel regular army is less than 200K, with 500K reservists.
It just doesn’t seem plausible.
Instead they will bomb until international pressure and threat of economic sanctions cause them to declare victory and stop.
I wish Israel had realistic options to prevent this for the future, but I don’t think they do.
I’ve read speculations for years about Israel having nuclear weapons under wraps. Is there anything about the skies raining fire and melting the land?
The former Gazans go to anywhere but Europe/USA.