It’s highly likely your #3 might happen *this time* (we’ll see).
That scenario could actually trigger an international confrontation with Iran, Russia, and others if the response escalates to using nuclear or neutron weaponry.
Yes, it definitely could happen. Seems many want this to occur, so it might. What’s clear is an 80 year paradigm is coming to a close, will the next be borne out of a violent world war or more so from a collapse and a whimper where the ‘keys’ are handed over?