DEMOCRATS FEAR A ‘CATHOLIC APOCALYPSE’

“The Democratic Party is facing a Catholic apocalypse,” Patricia Miller warns at Salon.

Her article does a good job of marshaling statistics, but when she assesses the reasons for the apocalypse she makes a critical error.

“White Catholics are now identifying as Republicans by historic margins,” she says, and lists the evidence.

• She cites Pew data showing that 53% of white Catholics favor the GOP, versus 39% who favor Democrats.

• Catholics voted for John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008’s presidential race by 5 percentage points, she says — but chose Mitt Romney over Obama by 19 points four years later, she says.

• The U.S. House has gone from a Catholic Democrat “bastian” in 2009 — with 98 Catholic Democrats and 37 Catholic Republicans to having more Catholic Republicans than Catholic Democrats for the first time ever in 2015 — though only barely; 69 to 68.

• Between 2009 and 2014 the number of white Catholics who thought the White House was unfriendly to religious doubled from 17% to 36%, according to Pew, says Miller.

The article looks for blame for the sudden shift, and offers a few ideas. It could be the bishops who say you can’t support Democrats because of abortion. It could be that left-leaning Catholics are leaving the Church, leaving only “conservative” Catholics in the fold. It could be that bishops (every bishop, by the way) are in her words “demonizing” the HHS mandate — the federal mandate that says Catholic employers must violate their consciences or face crippling fines.

Last, she cites Pew data showing Catholics wanting more conservative spending and immigration policies to say it could be the “Tea Party-ization of white Catholics.”

But the only group missing from her list of possible suspects is the most likely culprit: the Democratic Party itself.

First, on abortion, the Democratic Party has changed dramatically. Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson all started out supporting the right to life. Democrats for Life powerfully make the case that liberals should be pro-life. But the party’s harsh stand against the right to life has left it hemorrhaging people of conscience for a long time.

Princeton’s Robbie George left the party over abortion decades ago. Jo Ann Nardelli, an important Democratic organizer who had close ties to the late Gov. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania over social issues. Bishop Thomas Tobin left in 2013, giving up all hope for reform in the party.

For years, the Clintonian formula allowed Democrats to believe they wanted abortion to be “safe, legal and rare.” Kermit Gosnell did away with the “safe” part . The 2012 Democratic platform did away with the “rare” part. Now all that is left is the “legal” part.

Just last week, Democrats killed a bill against human-trafficking because it didn’t pay federal money to abortion businesses. It is hard to accept a party that would do that, and many people simply won’t.

Catholics don’t only care about abortion. As the Financial Times wrote in 2008, Pennsylvania swung away from the Republicans over the Iraq war.

What did Catholics get for their votes? Under Obama’s watch, U.S. kill teams in Afghanistan made international headlines. The administration’s violence created chaos in Libya and our premature exit from Iraq created an opening for ISIS, and the Obama administration shamefully redefined “civilian” to justify his own drone policy.

Catholics who voted for Obama got more abortion, less religious liberty, and more violence worldwide.

By stressing “white Catholics,” the article doesn’t mention that Latino Catholics are also not a cinch for the Democratic Party.

When party-switcher New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez said, “I’ll be damned, we’re Republicans” she was describing a feeling others may be having. Latinos were not the shoe-in they were supposed to be for Democrats last November.

But one thing Miller totally gets right is that the changing dynamic heralds more changes to come.

“The shift in the Catholic vote should really be a wakeup call to the Democrats,” she quotes Democratic activist Steve Krueger saying. “White Catholics are 18 percent of the electorate and Catholics vote 1 to 2 percentage points above their representation in the overall population. This is a significant voting bloc that now perceives Republicans as being more welcoming to people of faith.”

Hope this is not too much, but much more here on Catholic views vs evangelical.

Ethnic views section in particular

Latinos make up about 40 percent of all U.S. Catholics (Pew Research states 33%); 70 percent of Latinos are Catholic; 23 percent of Latinos are Protestant or “other Christian;” 37 percent of the U.S. Latino population (14.2 million) self-identifies as “born-again” or evangelical (26% as born again); This figure includes Catholic charismatics, who constitute 22 percent of U.S. Latino Catholics; http://www.nhclc.org/news/latino-religion-us-demographic-shifts-and-trend
In 2007, 68% of Latinos identified as Catholics, two-thirds being immigrants. 42% did not graduate from high school. 46% have a household income of less than $30,000 per year - lower than that of other religious traditions. The Latino electorate was overwhelmingly Catholic (63%), and 70% of all Latino eligible voters who identified as Democrats were Catholics. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2007/04/25/changing-faiths-latinos-and-the-transformation-of-american-religion/
15% of Hispanics overall identified themselves as evangelicals. 64% have at least a high school diploma, and about 39% have a household income of less than $30,000 per year Among Hispanic eligible voters who were evangelicals, 37% said they considered themselves Republicans and 32% said they were Democrats. http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedfiles/Topics/Demographics/hispanics-religion-07-final-mar08.pdf
Among registered voters in 2007, 50% of white Evangelicals and 36% of Latino Evangelicals were Republican, 25% of the former and 36% of the latter were Democrats. 23% white Evangelical and 19% of Latino Evangelicals were Independents http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedfiles/Topics/Demographics/hispanics-religion-07-final-mar08.pdf
70% of Latino registered voters in 2012 identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 22% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. 81 percent of Latinos with no religious affiliation were Democrats or Democratic leaning. http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx#president
73% of Latino Catholics surveyed said they favored Obama, versus 19% for Romney, while 50% of Latino evangelical Protestants (who accounted for 16% of all Latino registered voters) favored Obama, and 39% were for Romney. http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx
Latino Catholics made up 57% of the Latin electorate in 2012, and 71% are Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 21% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Among Latino evangelical voters, about half are Democrats or lean Democratic, while about a third are Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx
White, non-Hispanic Catholics express about as much support for same-sex marriage as Hispanic Catholics do (53% and 54%, respectively). White evangelical Protestants are somewhat more opposed to gay marriage (76%) than are Hispanic evangelical Protestants (66%). ^
Latino Evangelicals are 50% more likely than those who are Catholics to identify with the Republican Party, and are significantly more conservative than Catholics on social issues, foreign policy issues and even in their attitudes toward the plight of the poor. http://pewforum.org/surveys/hispanic
54% of Hispanic Catholics believe that churches and other places of worship should be required to provide health care coverage that includes contraception, compared to 41% Hispanic Protestants. African American & Hispanic Reproductive Issues Survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, July 2012
80% of religiously unaffiliated Hispanics, and 62% of Hispanic Catholics, and 47% of Hispanic mainline Protestants support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry, versus 21% of evangelical Protestants (79% oppose same-sex marriage).http://publicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Catholics-and-LGBT-Issues-Survey-Report.pdf
52% of Hispanic Catholics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, along with 74% of Evangelical Protestants. ^
30% of Hispanic Catholics say that having an abortion is morally wrong, compared to 7% who say it is morally acceptable. nearly 59% of evangelical Protestants say that having an abortion is morally wrong, compared to only 4% who say it is morally acceptable. ^
45% of Hispanic Catholics and 51% of mainline Protestants say that sexual relations between two adults of the same gender is morally wrong, compared to 16% of Catholics and 19% of mainline Protestants who say it is morally acceptable.10% of Hispanic Catholics and 4% of mainline Protestants believe the morality of same gender sexual activity depends on the situation, and 27% of Catholics and 23% of mainline Protestants say it is not a moral issue. ^
72% of evangelical Protestants say that sexual relations between two adults of the same gender is morally wrong, while 8% say it is morally acceptable. 6% say that the morality of the behavior depends on the situation and 14% say that it is not a moral issue. ^
51% of Hispanic Catholics and mainline Protestants say that it is possible to disagree with church teachings on homosexuality and remain a good Catholic or Christian, versus 70% of evangelical Hispanic Protestants who say it is not possible to disagree with church teachings on the issue of homosexuality and remain a good Christian. ^
12% of Hispanic Catholics, and 22% of Hispanic mainline Protestants and 50% of Hispanic evangelicals report that religion is the most important thing in their lives. ^
Catholics and mainline Protestants do not differ in the frequency of their religious attendance from Hispanics overall, while evangelical Protestants are significantly more likely to attend religious services regularly.
5% of Hispanics report that they do not believe in God. Hispanic Catholics closely resemble Hispanics overall, with 59% believing God is a person and 32% believing God is an impersonal force. 69% of Mainline Protestants believe God is a person 25% believe God is an impersonal force (25%). 85% of Hispanic evangelical Protestants believe God is a person with whom one can have a relationship. ^
Black Catholics constituted 5% of the Catholic church (highly predominantly from the West at 11%, versus 4-6% elsewhere) in 2007, and 15% of evangelicals (based on denomination, and spread fairly evenly, even in the NE at 16%, but lowest in the West at 11%). http://www.pewforum.org/A-Religious-Portrait-of-African-Americans.aspx
Blacks constituted 13% of the electorate in 2012. http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/2012-the-year-changing-demographics-caught-up-with-republicans
77 percent of Black Protestants said they vote Democratic, whether they attended weekly services or not. 2008 The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.
For those in black Catholic churches, political affiliation or leaning in 2007 was 17%/74% Republican/Democrat, and 11%/76% for black evangelical churches. Opposition to homosexuality 37% by black Catholics and 58% by black evangelicals. Opposition to abortion was 35% by black Catholics and 53% by black evangelicals. 66% of black evangelicals and 36% of black Catholics say they attend services at least weekly. http://www.pewforum.org/A-Religious-Portrait-of-African-Americans.aspx
22% of Asian-Americans are Protestants and 19% are Catholic (while 26% are unaffiliated, with 52% of Chinese being so). .http://www.pewforum.org/Asian-Americans-A-Mosaic-of-Faiths-overview.aspx
47% of Asian-American Protestants are or lean toward the Republican party, versus 36% Democrat. Asian-American evangelicals were at 56%/28%. Asian-American Catholics were at 42%/41% (Hindu Asian-Americans 9%/72% Republican/Democrat). ^
76% of Asian-American evangelical Protestants go to services at least once a week, followed by Catholics at 60%. Opposition to abortion and homosexuality is likewise higher among the former. ^

71% of Evangelicals, 35% of Protestants and 25% of Catholics said that a candidates position on abortion would have a lot of influence on their decision of who to vote for in 2012. Likewise 63% of evangelicals, 35% of Protestants and 19% of Catholics and said a candidates position on homosexual marriage would have a lot of influence on their decision. Barna, April, 2011 http://www.barna.org/transformation-articles/482-voters-most-interested-in-issues-concerning-security-and-comfort-least-interested-in-moral-issues
73% of Catholics polled say they believe Catholic politicians are under no religious obligation to vote on issues the way the bishops recommend, with 75% disapproving of denying communion to Catholics who support legal abortion, while 70% of Catholics say that the views of Catholic bishops in the US are unimportant to them in deciding for whom to vote, and 69% of say they feel no obligation to vote against candidates who support abortion. Belden Russonello & Stewart, "Secular and Security-Minded: The Catholic Vote in Summer 2008," Catholics for Choice, July 2008. http://www.catholicvote.net/page7/page22/page22.html
According to a February, 2011 Pew forum survey, 44% of white evangelical Protestants agree with the Tea Party movement, with only 8% disagreeing, while 33% of white Catholics agree and 23% disagree. Only 12% of atheists/agnostics support it with 67% opposing. http://pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/Tea-Party-and-Religion.aspx
In 2011, 70% of white evangelicals favored the GOP (up from 65% in 2004), compared with 24% who favored the Democratic Party.
By 2011 the number of mainline Protestants favoring the Republican Party had jumped by six points to 51%, and Democratic support had dropped by six points to 39%. White mainline Protestants are now 12 points more likely to express support for the GOP than for the Democratic Party.
49% white Catholics in 2008 supported for the Democratic Party and 41% identified as Republican or said they leaned toward the GOP. By 2011, the figures were reversed, 42% expressed support for Democrats and 49% for Republicans.
White evangelicals under 30 are now more heavily Republican than those over 30 (82% vs. 69%). And among white non-Hispanic Catholics under age 30, support for the GOP has increased from 41% in 2008 to 54% in 2011.
In 2011, all basic groups (all Catholic, Protestants, Mormons, Jewish, atheist/agnostic) showed increased support for Republicans.
Religiously unaffiliated voters - the fastest growing block - 61% identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, versus 27% for Republicans. - http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/Trends-in-Party-Identification-of-Religious-Groups-affiliation.aspx
65% of Catholics supported a tax increase for the wealthiest Americans in 2006, up from 52 percent in 2002. Majorities of Catholics support issues traditionally considered planks of the Democratic Party platform: universal healthcare, pro-labor policies, access to abortion, and social welfare programs for the poor. http://cara.georgetown.edu/NewsandPress/PressReleases/pr061808.pdf
10% of Evangelical Protestants reside in the NE, 23% in the Midwest, 50% in the South, and 17% in the West. Catholics: 29% NE, 24% Midwest, 24% in the South, 23% in the West. “Muslim Americans: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream,” Pew Research Center, 2007. http://religions.pewforum.org/comparisons#
The population of Massachusetts ranks as the most liberal, with Boston and Cambridge being the most liberal large cities (100,000 or more), followed by California. http://www.epodunk.com/top10/liberal/index.html
The 16 most Catholic states contain 24 of the most liberal cities. Excluding (Maryland 26th), predominately Roman Catholic states contain all but one (Seattle WA) of the 30 most liberal cities. Of states in which S. Baptists are the single largest denomination none (of the 30 cities) were found. (the term “liberal” being defined according to individual contributions to PACs, election returns and the number of homosexual households: http://www.epodunk.com/top10/liberal/index.html http://www.glenmary.org/grc/RCMS_2000/Catholic_findings.htm , http://www.adherents.com/rel_USA.html.
The highest percentages of residents who describe themselves as Christian are typically in the South, including: Shreveport, LA (98%), Birmingham (96%), Charlotte (96%), Nashville (95%), Greenville, SC / Asheville, NC (94%), New Orleans (94%), Indianapolis (93%), Lexington (93%), Roanoke-Lynchburg (93%), Little Rock (92%), and Memphis (92%). http://www.barna.org/faith-spirituality/435-diversity-of-faith-in-various-us-cities
73% of the populations of Charlotte and Shreveport held scripture in high regard, versus only 27% of the residents of Providence, Rhode Island [the most Catholic state] and San Francisco [the most homosexual large city]. ^
The lowest percentages of self-identified Christians inhabited the following markets: San Francisco (68%), Portland, Oregon (71%), Portland, Maine (72%), Seattle (73%), Sacramento (73%), New York (73%), San Diego (75%), Los Angeles (75%), Boston (76%), Phoenix (78%), Miami (78%), Las Vegas (78%), and Denver (78%). Even in these cities, however, roughly three out of every four residents align with Christianity. ^
The highest percentage of souls who tended toward being atheist or agnostic were in Portland, Maine (19%), Seattle (19%), Portland, Oregon (16%), Sacramento (16%), and Spokane (16%)
Commitment to evangelism (agree strongly that a person has a responsibility to share their beliefs with others) saw the greatest percentage of endorsement by residents of Birmingham (64%) and Charlotte (54%), in contrast to residents of Providence (14%) and Boston (17%).

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.