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But how do you know that the Holy Spirit did not convict Uncle Bill and Uncle Bill refused to respond?

Simple. Uncle Bill didn't believe. This is what John tells us albeit in an indirect way.

1Jn 2:19 They went out from us, but they were not of us; for if they had been of us, they would have continued with us. But they went out, that it might become plain that they all are not of us.

Uncle Bill unbelieve is evidence that God has not brought him to repentance. Consider these verses:

Act 13:48 And when the Gentiles heard this, they began rejoicing and glorifying the word of the Lord, and as many as were appointed to eternal life believed.

You could rephrase this: And when Aunt Myrtle heard this, she began rejoicing and glorifying the word of the Lord, and as she was appointed to eternal life [she] believed.

It fits. It excludes Uncle Bill.

Although John is talking about people who "left the faith", you could take John's verse and do the same thing for Uncle Bill: Bill went out from us, but he was not of us; for if he had been of us, he would have continued with us. But Bill went out, that it might become plain that he is not of us.

How can you possibly know what the Holy Spirit is doing in the life of another person?

I don't know. All I can be assured of is my own salvation. Believe me, I have plenty of issues of my own to be concerned with what the Holy Spirit is doing in other people's lives.

Those verses say what they say and apply to whoever John was writing about.

But the bottom line is that you don't know who the Holy Spirit convicts and who responds with a refusal and you don't know what the Holy Spirit is doing in someone's life.

None of the verses you have posted validate Calvinist belief. You cannot produce one verse that specifically states that God chooses who He will save and who He will not save.

Until those verses are posted, we have to stick with the facts of Scripture where Jesus said that He died for the entire world, that it is not His will that any perish, and that those who are condemned are condemned because they refused to believe.

Those are the Scriptures that we have and none of them even hint that God chooses who He will save and sends everyone else to hell. You have to be able to produce the Scripture to support your belief or the belief has to be questioned.