McClintock Can't Win? Do the Math Again

From Perspicacity & Paradigms Online (www.perspicacityonline.com) Posted Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2003 By Rand Green P&P Editor & Publisher

OVERWHELMINGLY, Republicans who plan on voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California gubernatorial election on October 7 justify their choice by saying that they would rather see Tom McClintock be governor but they just don’t believe Tom can win.

You hear it over and over again. On talk radio. In letters to the editor. On network interviews. In emails. In conversations around the water fountain at work or on the golf course or at Chamber of Commerce meetings or at church. The sentiment is seemingly ubiquitous. “We’re tired of losing. Sure, Arnold’s a social liberal, but he’s a fiscal conservative, and we’d rather have 75 percent of something than 100 percent of nothing. McClintock can’t win, and if he splits the Republican vote, it will assure a Bustamante victory.”

I do not believe I have heard a single Republican supporter of Mr. Scharzenegger declare that he is the best qualified candidate or the preferred choice; only that he is the most electable. Many Republican leaders, in endorsing Arnold, have said if the balance tipped and it appeared that Tom could win, they would eagerly support him. But that will never happen, they say. “This is, after all, California, and California is a Democratic state. The majority of Californians are social liberals, and even though we wish it were otherwise, a true conservative has no chance of winning. Do the math.”

The “math” they talk about is simple -- or, more accurately, simplistic: A week out from the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding a two to one lead over Tom McClintock in the polls (40 percent to 18 percent), and Tom was trailing Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. Therefore, they conclude, Tom lacks the support to beat Cruz, and Arnold is the Republican party’s only hope.

You know, ordinarily it’s the liberal media and the liberal Democrats that I frequently suggest need to take a class in remedial math. Now, I have to suggest that the California Republican leadership needs to do the same thing.

I’m not about to get on their case in this article for not voting their convictions, for not standing by their principles. It may well be time to preach to the choir, but I’ll do that in another piece. For the moment, I’d just like to set the record straight on the math.

Ever hear of self-fulfilling prophecy? Yeah. Well, that is exactly what is happening with the California Republican leadership’s support of Schwarzenegger. Convinced that the only kind of Republican that can win state-wide office in California is one who has broad appeal to social liberals, they have nobly sacrificed their own personal preference in the interest of what they deem the greater good.

Rather than throwing their wholehearted support behind a candidate of Tom McClintock’s caliber, integrity and conviction, rather than seizing an opportune moment to explain to Californians that liberalism is a flawed concept and is at the root of the state’s problems, rather than pointing out that the left has misrepresented conservatism and that only a conservative agenda will bring greater prosperity, freedom and opportunity for all, California’s Republican leaders have basically thrown in the towel and acknowledged tacit defeat. Better to settle for a liberal (or a moderate if you insist) with an R after his name than to wind up with nothing.

Not only have the leaders of the California Republican party almost unanimously thrown their support behind Arnold (although nearly one-third of the rank-and-file stand firmly behind Tom), but they have urged -- no, they have pressured Tom’s supporters to hold their noses at the ballot box and vote contrary to the dictates of their conscience. Misery loves company.

If every Republican voter in California who believes that Tom McClintock would be the best choice for governor -- if only he could win -- would vote for Tom McClintock, he would win by a landslide.

If every Republican leader in the state, every conservative organization, and every conservative talk show host who has supported Arnold Schwarzenneger had instead endorsed the candidate they’d really like to see win, if only he could, their influence would have assured a victory for Tom McClintock.

Instead, they are talking themselves blue in the face, sometimes with angry tones in their voices, lambasting McClintock supporters for standing stubbornly by their principles and “splitting the Republican vote.” It is a squandering of energy that would better be invested in extolling the virtues of conservatism and exposing the liberal myth. And it is disingenuous. Here’s why:

The fact is, McClintock supporters are not splitting the Republican vote. If anything, it is the other way around. After all, Tom McClintock was in the race first. But more to the point, if Arnold had not jumped in, who would these Republican leaders and conservative organizations be backing? If they really, honestly believe that Arnold is the only candidate with enough public appeal to win, why did they back the recall in the first place? If they were convinced that Tom McClintock or Darrel Issa or Bill Simon didn’t have a chance against any of the likely Democratic contenders, what did they think to gain by ousting Governor Davis?

Or did they have foreknowledge of a Schwarzenegger candidacy even before the Steroid Wonder had made his decision to run?

With Bustamante at 25 percent and sliding, and McClintock at 18 percent and climbing, McClintock is only seven points back from beating Bustamante, and the gap is closing. Schwarzenegger supporters rant about how McClintock needs to drop out to assure a Republican victory, but nobody seems to be asking what would happen if Schwarzenegger pulled out of the race. A CNN poll actually posed that question, but apparently nobody in the new media liked the answer, because it never got reported!

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent! The idea that Tom McClintock could not win is nonsense. The idea that a principled conservative cannot win in California is absurd. If Tom McClintock is not elected governor on October 7, it will not be because he is unelectable. It will not be because a social and fiscal liberal named Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who calls himself a Republican and who, by pretending to be a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, is pulling off the most successful acting roll of his career -- is the only R who can win. It will be because of self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of party leaders with a “we’re sick and tired of losing” mentality.

Here are some more highly relevant numbers. Senator McClintock has name recognition in California of 96 percent. Over 60 percent of California voters - and not just Republicans -- have a favorable impression of him, and only 20 percent have a negative opinion.

Given that Tom McClintock needs to gain only seven points to close the gap with Lt. Gov. Bustamante, and that the vast majority of those who say they’ll vote for Schwarzenegger would gladly tip to Tom if they thought he could win, it would only take a few key Republican leaders, even at this late date, to break ranks and call for their constituents to support McClintock, and people would quickly see that a McClintock victory is indeed possible. Once that possibility became apparent, Republican voters would run in droves to the other end of the teeter-totter.

Or maybe they don’t. Maybe the voters of California will figure this out for themselves and vote their conscience, notwithstanding the endorsements of party leadership in favor of a candidate who is not their first choice. If that should happen, there are going to be a lot of high-profile Republicans in the state feeling more than a little chagrinned.

But what about this vote-split concern? What if some Arnold supporters switch to Tom but not in large enough numbers to give Tom the victory? Will not that vote splitting assure a Bustamante victory as so many Arnold supporters contend?

Not at all -- not unless, in the next few days, Bustamante makes a huge surge in the polls, which is unlikely as his popularity has been going steadily down, not up.

Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one.

Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin.

If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory.

Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor.

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. So no one who in their heart of hearts would really rather cast a vote for McClintock than for Schwarzenegger needs to worry about being the cause of a Republican defeat if they vote their conscience. Arnold backers should just lay off the guilt trip, because it is without basis.

Maybe what some of those who say a principled conservative can’t win in California are really afraid of is not that McClintock supporters might split the ticket and cause Republicans to lose but that Tom might actually gain enough momentum to win, thus proving their pessimism unfounded. Maybe that’s why they are digging in and turning the turrets on their brethren instead of taking the battle to the foe.

If all voters in California would vote their conscience, their principles, their head and their heart and not allow themselves to be intimidated, the numbers show that Tom McClintock would be California's next governor and the myth that that no principled conservative can win statewide office in the Golden State would be forever dispelled.

As Shakespeare wrote, and as Tom McClintock has recently quoted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life are spent in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

From Perspicacity & Paradigms (www.perspicacityonline.com). Copyright (c) 2003 by Rand Green Communications. Note: You may make coies of this article for free distribution, distribute it by email, or post it to the internet, if you do so in its entirety, complete with all credits and this copyright notice.

**I am very disappointed in Ray Haynes, not to mention Senator Chuck Poochigian - both endorsed Schwarznkennedy. They are going to have to take the heat for it, though. Apparently, they have a personal axe to grind with McClintock. **

Unless you know for certain that Ray Haynes has a personal axe to grind with McClintock...and can prove it...you shouldn't offer that information as truth.

I know Ray Haynes personally.

When was the last time you voted for a Conservative regardless of the candidate's supposed chances of winning?

Last year, when I voted for Simon in the primary. Before that, it would have been Steve Forbes over Bob Dole in the 1996 primary, even though Forbes had already withdrawn from the race.

...but RINOs have finally succeeded after decades of refusing conservatives a voice at the table.

There is nothing worse than a Conservative whiner. If you can't dominate the GOP, than don't cry when others do.

I noticed alot of Arnold supporters who say that they support him because he is the most electable also just happen to agree with little things like banning firearms and leaving the borders wide open to invasion.

When you've strayed so far away from the constitution you obviously cant call yourself a conservative and can your really honestly call yourself a republican?

You don't know how things around here work.

That's a sad excuse from Conservatives who allowed the Liberals to take over and dominate the state government. Why should anybody trust the Conservatives to straighten out their act? If Tom is going to be ousted by own party leadership, then why wasn't he smart enough to not put himself in such a position?

I had one guy yesterday tell me that the Indian Mafia paying off CA Elected officials was just like paying a bribe to do business, therefore OK. If that is the way "things around here work," I make the following offer...

If you vote YES on the Recall and the FOR Ahrnold,

I will vote for Tom for US Senator...honest injun.

Disclaimer--The above post is intended as satire, it is not intended to encourage or otherwise endorse "vote swapping" or any other nasty, underhanded thing CA Republicans allow the Federal and State Democrat Party (and their "Conservative" allies) to do them every time the Republicans have and actual chance to win an elected office in California.

A Personal Message from Tom McClintock

Dear Friends,

I'd like to ask you to vote yes on the recall...and then vote your conscience on a replacement. This time, it's just too important for any of us to sit on the sidelines.

This state is at a real turning point—and on Tuesday, we’ll make a decision that will affect us—and our children, for years to come. There are some things we differ on, sure, but here’s what we can all agree on—an honest government, fair taxes, a balanced budget, protecting our families and healing our divisions.

Now, some people say I can't win...but, if you read the polls you'll find that most people say I'm the best man for the job. Think about it. If everyone who feels that way gets out and votes for me on Tuesday—then we'll win by a landslide.

I've held my ground and fought for what I believed in. Now, it’s your turn.

Because when they count the ballots, only one vote counts—yours.

At this point, it doesn't depend on me—it depends on you.

Thank you for your continued support. Together we can and will save our state!

Tom McClintock
California State Senator

You should be willing to name names if you plan to make blanket accusations like that. Why don't you give me the names of, say, five Arnold supporters here who agree to those things?

Given your numbers... if Tom were to "split" the vote down the middle with (R)nold...

You make a good point......

But do you think that is the likely outcome... I don't. My guess is the 'tock voters are and have been in his camp all along and aren't late comers from the undecided or switch over groups. On this forum the unscientific poll shows more switching to Schwarzenegger than 'tock. Just a guess and could be wrong, but I doubt it.

[Vote your conscience... it's safe and it's called Democracy.].......
My guess is that is what the voting public is doing and their conscience is telling them to vote for change and Schwarzenegger seems to be the one that can provide it....

"That said, I do believe that Tom would make a fine governor and would vote for him if Arnold was not in the race."

If this were a primary fight, McClintock would be bringing Arnold down right now. But with the election cycle so short, I think McClintock supporters ought to be proud of bringing him up as far as they did in such a short period of time, but his support will vanish as the election nears. Sad but true. The reason is, Arnold might win even if McClintock stays. But so long as Arnold stays, McClintock can't. It's too short a time line.

McClintock might be wise to bow out while he's still strong.

Sad FReegards....

Well, Davis is at work behind the scenes slashing and burning Arnold

And Schwarzenegger's numbers seem to be going up..... People aren't buying the smears this time around. I hope they don't and maybe if they backfire it will lessen their use in the future for all candidates.

Look at this forum which should be one of McClintock's stronger supporters.... He can't even win here and the cross over or change vote isn't even in his favor. What makes you think the general public of CA will change over to McClintock?

[I'd rather have Bustamante as governor than Schwarzenegger]....
I bet you that McClintock wouldn't say that or even support that. In fact he's said he'd support Schwarzenegger fully if he wins. At least he understands the need to try and move the ball some even if only a little bit.

"Sadly, there is a sizable portion of FReepers who prefer Arnold on the issues. :-("

Not to fear. The internet is anti-leftist for a reason. So is talk radio. A lot of FReepers need to do a lot of catching up. By the time that happens, California politics will be completely changed. This recall vote is merely the beginning. FReegards....

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/994615/posts

For nearly a decade, the far right has trapped the Republican Party in a murder-suicide soap opera, putting forth right-wing candidates for statewide office who can't win elections. The far right, which is better-organized and willing to fight dirtier than Republican moderates, has crippled its party. The Democratic Party of California has benefited enormously. The party has risen to its greatest power in more than 20 years. The last thing partisan Democrats want now is a moderate Republican governor who could tame the ultra-conservative tail that wags the dog in the California Republican Party.

"Leader of what? Show me when he [McClintock] was an actual leader, as opposed to being just a lip mover."

Yes you're right CP. Please forgive some of us for forgetting that Arnold is a "leader" -- Afterall, he has saved planet Earth twice AND actually saved Mars!! Most importantly, he even saved Jamie Lee Curtis...

Oh, that's right -- that happened only in his movies. What am I thinkin'??

I guess you believe Schwarzenegger's "leadership" is displayed because he promises to do "dis kinda stuff and dat stuff." AND he has big muscles. Yeah, that kind of opiate is hard to resist...

This," said he. "is not the time for ceremony: the question before the house is one of awful moment to this country. It is nothing less than freedom, or slavery. If we wish to be free, we must fight. I repeat it, sir, we must fight! an appeal to arms, and to the God of Hosts, is all that is left us. It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, peace! Peace! But there is no peace. The war is actually begun. The next gale that sweeps from the north, will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms. Our brethren are already in the field. Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish! What would they have? Is life so dear, and peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but for me," cried he, with both his arms extended aloft, his brows knit, every feature marked with the resolute purpose of his soul, and his voice swelled to its boldest not of exclamation" give me liberty, or give me death!" He took his seat, and the cry "To Arms!" seemed to quiver upon every lip, and gleam from every eye. ....why post all of this on your about me page then, if your are not voting for your true beliefs??????????????

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