Recall, Schwarzenegger ahead in new LA Times poll [Schwarzenegger 40, Bustamante 32]

SF Chronicle ^ | Sep 30, 2003

[george wythe]

Voters favored recalling Gov. Gray Davis by a large margin in a Los Angeles Times poll released Tuesday and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was ahead of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat.

It was the second recent statewide survey to show Davis badly behind and Schwarzenegger in the lead. There is a week to go until the Oct. 7 election.

[jmc813]

If Arnold hadn't entered the race, then chances are, Issa or Simon would still be in the race and ahead of McClintock.

And had any one of them won, we would have ended up with a conservative governor. Hence, Arnold turns out to be the spoiler for conservatives.

[deport]

The SURGE is still going strong for 'tock.... but it has apparently turned into an EBB TIDE......

[jmc813]

With Arnold out, Davis would not be recalled. Thats the problem.

I must respectfully disagree judging by the amount of registered Dems willing to vote "yes" on recall. It sure would be interesting for polling company to try to figure that out though.

[pushforbush]

How right you are Ambrose. The LA Times is deciding to try to approach the truth. Must mean that the recall is ahead by much much more, and this was as far as the Times thought they could distort things and still retain a shred of credibility.

[jmc813]

The SURGE is still going strong for 'tock.... but it has apparently turned into an EBB TIDE......

You're supposed to post wise-ass comments to people on the other side, not each other. Have I taught you nothing?

[george wythe]

Maybe if Arnold walks in with 50+% of the vote he walks in with a resounding mandate that will bring the legislature to attention.

That will be an earthquake in California politics.

After years of controlling every statewide office and the state legislature, the Democrats are finally acting scared. Just the face of McAuliffe and Davis at election night will be priceless.

[Uncle Miltie]

California is driven by celebrity. It was over when Arnold entered the race. Y'all should sit back and enjoy the show! You cannot overcome the voting proclivities of the pierced Jiffy Lube attendant.

(Would that it were otherwise....)

[carbon14]

There is another poll out today called the California NexGen Bigpoll using over 7,000 voters. Quick results:

Recall Yes - 61.4%, No - 38.6%

Replacement Candidates Schwarzenegger - 39.7%, CBust - 23.6%, TMad - 12.6%

[onyx]

And had any one of them won, we would have ended up with a conservative governor.

What's this "WE" business? YOU reside in New 'Jeer'sey!

[onyx]

Dan said the military might call it a "negative surge" but I like your EBB TIDE better. :-)

The YES on recalling doofus-doltus is also "looking GOOD."

[jmc813]

What's this "WE" business? YOU reside in New 'Jeer'sey!

Good point. It's funny how you can get dragged into this one issue so much, even being 3000 miles away from the action. Gotta love the Internet.

Anyhow, the "we" simply refers to Republicans/Freepers/etc. In most elections, we stick together and provide support and encouragement from out of state, and share in victories that we might not have been personally involved in.

Despite the animosity between the two sides lately, we're going to have to figure out some way to possibly mend fences in the future or we are screwed with a capital S.

[christynsoldier]

so you're convinced that Californians would vote to have
their CAR TAX tripled while watching the state go $20
Million deeper in debt every day, is that what you believe???

I don't think so... Davis has always been toast.
Part B is and was the issue.

[expatpat]

If Arnold dropped out, and his votes were split equally between Busty and McClintock then Busty would win if you use the new LA numbers.

[george wythe]

You are forgetting that except for the Gallup poll released on Sunday, previous polls did not showed McClintock winning over Bustamante if Schwarzenegger dropped out.

Now that Schwarzenegger has possibly changed the political landscape and has continued to be the frontrunner on the Republican side, he cannot drop out unless he's a fool

For example, the poll was released September 9, 2003. The poll was conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc., September 1-4, 2003 among 1,005 likely voters. According to the poll commissioned by California Chamber of Commerce:

If both Ueberroth and McClintock drop out, Schwarzenegger will win over Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and McClintock drop out, Ueberroth will tie with Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and Ueberroth drop out, McClintock will lose to Bustamante.

California Chamber of Commerce

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall
relection for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices) 

49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
6%   Undecided / refused (vol)
__________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)

43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
4%  Would not vote (vol)
9%  Undecided / refused (vol)
_________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)
 
41% Tom McClintock, Republican
47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
1%  Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
8%  Undecided / refused (vol)

[FairOpinion]

"Maybe if both our candidates pull out the maximum support of their supporters, we can "

===

This is a very dangerous thing to advocate - this is exactly the one thing that can hand victory to Bustamante. All of a sudden some people think it's "OK" to vote for McClintock, because Arnold will win anyway and then syphon off just enough votes from Arnold to get Bustamante in.

We have to keep our eye on the ball: to win, Arnold must win. Also-rans don't count. If Arnold wins by 50%, THAT counts.

A vote for McClintock is still a vote for Bustamante and it can STILL hand victory to Bustamante.

[El Conservador]

Sir, let me tell you that I'm absolutely impressed with the quality of whatever you're smoking.
If Arnold had not entered the race, the next Guvnuh of Kaleeforneea would be either Bill Simon or (gasp!) Cruz Bust-a-move.

[heleny]

McClintock would have dropped out of the race for Simon.

No way. Simon's negatives were high, and McClintock passed Simon in the polls very early in the campaign.

[TheBigB]

I swear, as much fun as it has been to watch this circus from across the country, I will be glad when it's over. Tom or Arnold. Arnold or Tom. Enough already. The DEMONRATS are the enemy. Our fire and wrath should be concentrated on THEM.

[FairOpinion]

"As for now, maybe what Schwarzenegger needs is fewer votes, just to keep him humble and remind him that he needs to pay attention to the right.

===

I nominate this for the most destructive and ludicrous post of the evening.

Let's cut back on Arnold's votes, maybe we can cut back enough to get Bustamante to win, that'll humble Arnold, that's what you are really saying, right?!

[GOPJ]

Hmmmm...

But others have said that Democratic officials have grown frustrated with Bustamante's campaign -- which has been rocked by campaign finance violations -- and have turned more toward a "save Davis" strategy.