Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[b4its2late]

The 11 AM Report will lower the storm to a Category 2 with winds around 105 mph....

[Howlin]

See 159.

[AbsoluteGrace]

Good Morning!

[agrace]

Good morning, how's the situation in Chester County?

[abner]

Good morning to you too. LOL!

[Howlin]

[4Freedom]

I'll be checking back later.

[abner]

So far, it is beautiful! A little drier and just a little breezy. I'm ready though. . Got lots of food, extra water and we have a backup generator coming in later today. I haven't discounted this storm one bit. It is too wet here not to take it seriously.

[Howlin]

Look familiar?

[appalachian_dweller]

MFH,

Thanks very much for your work in keeping us informed. Great Job!

A_D

[Howlin]

My best friend lives in Lynchburg! I was thinking of "escaping" Raleigh for her house; guess not, huh?

[appalachian_dweller]

>> You would think that by now people here in DC would not have to do anything but toss the birdfeeder in the garage <<

You'd think. I stay prepared for these things. I can evacuate in 10 minutes time. For the life of me I can't figure folks out. LOL!!

[Howlin]

and the weather channel's on all day

That's the key, isn't it? POWER.........LOL.

[Howlin]

Over here!

[b4its2late]

Make that the winds will be around 100 mph in the 11 am report. Wind shear is disrupting Isabel....

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 42
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 16, 2003

 
...Hurricane Watch issued as Isabel moves north-northwestward...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little
River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
Maryland...and the tidal Potomac.  A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

 
Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.

 
At 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect south of
Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch
area later today or tonight.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located
near latitude 27.4 north... longitude 71.2 west or about 600 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near  8 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 105
mph...with higher gusts.  This makes Isabel a category two
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  While some
further weakening is expected today...conditions could become
favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles.

 
A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure
of 959 mb...28.32 inches.

 
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being
experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic
coasts.  These conditions will also continue over portions of the
the Bahamas for the next few days. 

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...27.4 N... 71.2 W.  Movement
toward...north-northwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

 
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office...and statements from
local emergency management officials.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

[Howlin]

Is it wind sheers or dry air?

[commish]

The 11 AM Report will lower the storm to a Category 2 with winds around 105 mph

As it should, she is at best a CAT 2 at the moment. But she is not as disorganized as she was overnight. The hole that the westerly shear punched in here has closed back up in the SW qaudrant, and the NE and NW quads are showing nice expansion.

Prayers that she stays as she is, but from the looks of her, she seems to be getting a little better organized. The 5PM and 11PM advisories shuld be interesting.

[deport]

Aren't you far enough inland that winds won't be the problem, but rather rain/flooding and possible tornadoes.......

[Howlin]

Her pressure is down!