Posted on 09/16/2003 1:13:54 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.
Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.
That's the key, isn't it? POWER.........LOL.
...Hurricane Watch issued as Isabel moves north-northwestward...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland...and the tidal Potomac. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.
At 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 27.4 north... longitude 71.2 west or about 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 105 mph...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is expected today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...27.4 N... 71.2 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
As it should, she is at best a CAT 2 at the moment. But she is not as disorganized as she was overnight. The hole that the westerly shear punched in here has closed back up in the SW qaudrant, and the NE and NW quads are showing nice expansion.
Prayers that she stays as she is, but from the looks of her, she seems to be getting a little better organized. The 5PM and 11PM advisories shuld be interesting.
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