Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[NCjim]

A bad day at the beach is better than a good day in ... nah, I won't go there. :-)

[4Freedom]

Isabel is going to fall into your "especially so" category.

Isabel is going to hit that pocket of warm water, re-organize and gain strength until it veers ashore somewhere in the Carolinas.

[Brian S]

I agree with your assessment. Southwest quarter seems to be getting reorganized. With daytime heating, we should have a strengthing storm by this evening.

JMO

[Hatteras]

LOL, I still say there's no such thing as a bad day at the beach. Seriesly though, I'd rather face hurricane force winds at the beach than face them in Raleigh.

[Gabz]

There was some talk the past couple of days about the NASCAR Races this weekend in Dover.

I have nothing against the races or the fans, I occassionally will watch a race or listen to it on the radio - but some of these people are down right fanatical about it.

Race campers staying put

I'm familiar with those camping areas - they would be the last place on earth I would want to be even just in a stronger than average thunderstorm.

[N8VTXNinWV]

I don't know if you want to come to my house or not! The red line goes directly over L'burg!!! Already calling for major flooding in our area. L'burg is on top of a mountain, so we'll be okay... other towns (ie: WSS, Ronceverte, Alderson, Marlinton) probably not as lucky. Door is ALWAYS open!! :o)

Glad for the news of Dear Brother-in-law!

[Damocles]

I'm just gonna trust you on that one...

[Damocles]

I'm just gonna trust you on that one...

[NCjim]

I have to agree with you there. Between the ice storms and the hurricanes in Raleigh, I keep getting roof damage from my trees. Those live oaks we have at Emerald Isle have weathered many a storm! Now the storm surge is an entirely different story, unfortunately. That is the only plus of being in Raleigh... we better not get that here!

[oldironsides]

Yesterday we got 8" of rain. Every creek and river went over and we had water rescues. The Brandywine River was a churning overwhelming mess. I could not get home. There was no weather warning issued. There was not one indication that we were in for a hell of a day. Isabel may bring rain but at least we are getting a heads up.

[Nexus]

Another quick point: The more this storm spreads out, the more ocean surface area to pull moisture/energy from (esp now that it's about to join up with the gulf stream). I'm not liking this situation at all.

[StriperSniper]

the NASCAR Races this weekend in Dover.

Well if Isabel shows up at the race, maybe they can run the race backwards, i.e. clockwise, and counteract the counterclockwise cyclonic flow. ;-)

[iceskater]

marking to check back later.

[agrace]

It is exciting,awesome,scary,spine tingling..until you lose your home or lose your child or friend.

Amen. I love big weather - give me a blizzard and a warm house from which to watch it and the weather channel's on all day. I love thunderstorms and hurricanes and the force of what God do. Tornadoes are fascinating but terrifying and my kids and I collect hail stones whenever they fall.

But of course I wish that in spite of all the wind, rain, downed trees, waves and lightning that not a single person suffers injury, loss of life or property. It'd be nice if things could just blow around and never hit a thing and we could all just say WOW and then go back to our undamaged lives.

[Howlin]

This morning, I'm getting back on edge.

Me, too. And one of the reason is because most people will believe it's not going to be a problem.

This could be a BIG problem for us.

[agrace]

I'm familiar with those camping areas - they would be the last place on earth I would want to be even just in a stronger than average thunderstorm.

Really, I'm with you. Plus, they are parked helter skelter everywhere along route 1/13 - we drove down to OC, MD for vacation the day before a big race in May and it was crazy through Dover - campers in parking lots, along the road, and thousands of people just milling about. Amazingly the traffic wasn't too bad. But Dover during a race day would be about the last place I'd want to be in a decent hurricane. All those campers flying around, yikes.

[Howlin]

It is.

Stay safe.

[Constitution Day]

Thanks. We've prepared all we can; hoping for the best now.

[Howlin]

This is from STORM2K.Org:

JetMaxx
Category 5 Hurricane
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 14449
Location: Douglasville, Georgia Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:07 am
Post subject:

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Scott...I'm very concerned...this is a lot like what occurred with Hugo and Hazel.. The hurricane weakens from the the sharp direction change....and drifts slowly northward. Then as the sharper trough approaches, Isabel accelerates like it's been shot out of a cannon...all the while intensifying as it TURNS BACK TO THE NW toward Cape Hatteras UNDERNEATH the high pressure to the north which enhances outflow....a "squeeze play" over warm waters and warmer Gulf Stream -- and the result is a deepening monster hurricane at landfall....just as the 18z GFS proggs (as does the ETA).... I foresee Isabel making landfall as at least a 130 mph hurricane....and a 135-140 mph cat-4 won't surprise me. This synoptic pattern I see setting up also reminds me of the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane -- except instead of racing northward into Long Island and Connecticut, the orientation will be NW then NNW from between Cape Lookout and Manteo area - then rapidly inland west and south of Norfolk towards Richmond and Washington DC --- that's why it reminds me of Hugo...the turn toward the coast and acceleration will be toward the NW...then NNW after landfall. It is potentially catastrophic Scott....and it's what Stacey Stewart was hinting at yesterday and James Franklin this afternoon about possibly rapid intensification just prior to landfall. If it happens, God help anyone that fails to evacuate the coast from Morehead City to at least Ocean City...and possibly southern Jersey (not to mention areas surrounding Chesapeake and Delaware Bay). This is already a large hurricane...and global models forecast it to get even larger around time of landfall. In 1954, hurricane Hazel's devastating storm surge destroyed every pier from Myrtle Beach, SC to Cedar Island, NC...a 170 mile long stretch. That's what we may witness in 72 hours -- except farther north.

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[abner]

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