Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[floriduh voter]

You love weather too.

[pgkdan]

A hurricane is less likely to kill hundreds of people in the U.S. nowadays. Still imagine the property damage this'll inflict.

Don't kid yourself. Without adequate evacuations a strong category 4 or a 5 on the east coast could very well kill hundreds...perhaps thousands. I truly dread the prospect of a direct hit ( or even a clean carrom off Cape Hatteras) in the Tidewater VA area...poor roads and a dependence on bridges and tunnels will really hamper evacuations and the huge developement boom in VA Beach puts a whole lot of people in harms way.

[SheLion]

Go back and get a CO detector.

Thanks so much for the warning! I certainly will check into this before I run it. It's plugged in now, out on the porch. I had to charge it up, and it states to leave it plugged in until a power failure.

[PJ-Comix]

hold on until 11PM, the projected path may be changing, moving to the south.

I doubt it. The last course was 285 degrees which was WNW. If anything the new course will be more towards 300 degrees as it veers in a more northerly course.

[VMI70]

"Excellent advice. There are always those who insist on staying behind in order to protect their property from the hurricane. I can't imagine what they think they can do to protect their property once the storm hits."

I'll tell you exactly why...
If you leave, the JBTs will not let you back to your property until way after the storm has passed. In our case, with Fran, it rained for about 5 days straight AFTER the storm proper.If I could have gotten to my cottage in a timely manner, I could have nailed a blue tarp on the roof, which would have saved me about 35 grand.

[Vinnie]

I dragged out my 'Chapman's Piloting' book and did a little calculations.

Wind Pressure increases with the square of the velocity.

What that means is

16 kt = 1 lb/ sq. ft. wind pressure

25 kt = 2.1 lb/sq. ft
50 kt = 8.5 lb/sq. ft.
75 kt = 22.5 lb/sq. ft.
100 kt = 50 lb/sq.ft.
120 kt = 72 lb/sq.ft
155 kt = 120 lb/sq. ft

That is on a flat surface perpendicular to the wind.
10 - 15 knots of wind can make a huge difference in wind pressure.

[CobaltBlue]

I dunno about "screwed" but I'll be very interested to see what happens if Isabel comes straight up the Chesapeake without losing strength. The White House and Capitol Hill are not all that far from the Potomac, the Potomac is already full of water, and the ground is saturated from a very wet summer.

When I lived in New Orleans, there were a few scenarios for the "perfect storm" that would have left that entire city completely underwater. I am glad I don't live there anymore.

[ZAKJAN]

Thanks Orion..........ekkkk
or NO thanks.....that big guy shows it going right for my back yard...LOL

Jan

NJ

[Howlin]

Exactly.

[Gabz]

If this thing hits anywhere north of Wilmington, NC on Thursday, I would venture to say that NASCAR will be cancelled at Dover because the govs of NC, VA, MD & DE will declare all the coastal areas disasters and shut the states down.

It's actually very easy for the Penninsula to be shut down.

My husband and I have been laughing most of the evening. He's scheduled for a weekend long computer system installation at a brokerage firm in Rehoboth Beach, starting on Wednesday!!!! I don't see it happening. with Virginia tags on his car and a VA driver's license they probably won't even let him into Delaware on Friday - let alone Rehoboth!!!!

Storm surge is always the problem and with the Chesapeake having an almost directly opposite schedule of high tide than the Atlantic side - I'll have no idea which way it's coming from - but thankfully I'm about 15 miles from either. I live 2 miles west of 13, but only about 8 miles south of the Maryland line. so I am on about the widest patch of ESVA. When we had all the flooding the Wednesday after labor day here in Accomac county - I had all the rain, but none of the flooding - So I guess I'm one of those high spots!!!

[agrace]

You'll be in my prayers for a miss. My brother lives in condos a few blocks down, 13th street, directly 2 blocks west of Phillips by the Sea. If you see him, tell him to bug out. ;) Have a safe trip and hurry!

[myprecious]

Thank you for posting Eric's name and history. I was in Pensacola then, but could not remember before posting. There are lots of wobble-ly storms, but this one has become the controlling force right now. It is as wide as Florida is long. Make way!

[U S Army EOD]

You don't have a generator, you have a large storage battery. It won't do you a bit of good if power is off for over a day or two.

[Amelia]

Do you have a generator, or an uninteruptible power supply (UPS)? If you have to plug it in, it sounds like a UPS.

Do you just plug it in, or do you put fuel of some sort (propane, gasoline, kerosene, etc.) in it?

[Sam Cree]

To tell you the truth, when Andrew was approaching I heard more thunder than I've ever heard in my life, it sounded like the grand finale at a fancy fireworks display. But it was somewhat distant and perhaps very high up.

The storm was just a little ways off, in the Stream, and power was already gone. Within an hour or so, it began to blow so hard you couldn't hear anything else, except the roaring wind and heavy objects impacting the house.

Yeah, it was very clear next evening, and for a couple days.

Next time I saw a thunderstorm, few days later, I jumped.

[SuziQ]

If you leave, the JBTs will not let you back to your property until way after the storm has passed

When Hurricane Georges hit MS, my older sister and her husband, whose house is right on the water of the MS sound, went to my younger sister's house. The next day, they could have gotten through on the road; it was only flooded slightly, and they could see the road wasn't damaged. The police wouldn't let them through from the Gautier side, but folks were coming from the Ocean Springs side, and looting the houses that had been left unattended while their owners fled the storm! Bastiges!

[Howlin]

I went over to babysit for my cousin late this afternoon; she said she was flying out to a week long convention in Paramus and she'd be back on Friday.

I said, "I don't think so."

[CobaltBlue]

Sterno stoves and Spam. The hurricane treat.

We have a fireplace so I plan on learning to cook over an open hearth, if needs must, but not at all sure what I'll do about coffee if we have a power outage for several days. Boil water in the fireplace, I reckon. At any rate, we've got over a cord of hardwood where the rain can't get to it.

[Howlin]

You better watch YOUR own back, friend.

[Howlin]

Do NOT use charcoal.