Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Howlin]

I'm beginning to REALLY get worried about my niece and nephew down in Wilmington.

[SuziQ]

How about Corin and his family? Reckon they'll be OK?

[Old Sarge]

We in the Kentucky Guard are watching this monster. Heavy rains in WV and eastern KY spell flooding in the flatlands. That translates into washout roads, and evacuations. And SAR missions when some dummy tries to skinny-dip in the floodwash, and we gotta drag the river.

We're figuring sustained 25-knot winds, and rainfall of several inches in a tight space. Which means rotary-wing aircraft have a hard time, and will probably be grounded.

We'll know better once Thursday rolls around, but we're prepping for some work to be done.

[Orion78]

LOL =)

What struck me when I looked at that was how bad it must have been for the people on the east side of Florida. They thought it was over with and the sucker turned around and came back at them again.

[NautiNurse]

Holy Smokes! TWC just said that tomorrow waves at the Outer Banks could reach 15 feet! Storm surge could be 30 feet!!!

[CobaltBlue]

I called my sister in Baton Rouge and asked her to refresh my recollection as to what to do about hurricanes, because it has been so long since I've seen one.

She said in Baton Rouge nobody puts plywood on their windows or duct tapes their windows. They just get extra batteries, flashlights, candles, canned food, pet food, toilet paper, so they are prepared for power outages and being stuck inside.

One thing Yankees might need to worry about is full freezers. We've quit buying food that needs to be refrigerated, and are using up what's already in the freezers.

But in Yankeeland, a bad hurricane won't do any more harm than an ice storm or a blizzard, so the people in Rochester are probably more ready for it than you are.

[Sam Cree]

Yes, true, thinking about hurricanes has been part of growing up for her. She was 12 when Andrew hit us, which means she remembers it very well.

She's telling me that after living through a category 5 strike, she's not overly concerned with a category one, but I'm trying to get her to worry a little.

[pgkdan]

Hey neighbor...I'm In Landstown Lakes off Dam Neck Rd. If I leave it will be Wednesday night or very early Thursday...before dawn. Any later than that will be gridlock and it will be safer to stay home.

I'll take 64 West to 460 West and keep going well beyond Franklin and Emporia. I don't know if you were here when Floyd hit but the flooding out in Franklin and Emporia and Isle of Wight County was truly disastrous, so don't stop until you get beyond 95.

Good Luck. It looks like this baby might whack Hatteras and then come right up the sound and hit Tidewater. If so, don't expect it to weaken much before it hits us.

I'm praying that a system develops to take this thing up to the N. Atlantic and let it die out.

[Howlin]

Same thing on Geraldo.

[Windcatcher]

Geez. Looks like *sone* part of PA will be devastated, it's only a question of which part (praying it won't be Delaware County).

[Howlin]

If I leave it will be Wednesday night or very early Thursday...before dawn.

They are just saying on TV that the tropical force winds will begin Wednesday afternoon, hurricane early Thursday morning.

And it's going to speed up when it comes ashore.

[PJ-Comix]

Who was the Freeper the other day that was gripping about how he thinks Drudge is too hung up on weather? He won't think that if Isabel smashes into his hometown.

[oceanview]

not tomorrow, there won't be a 30 foot storm surge tomorrow at the outer banks, its when the thing actually hits, right?

[Amelia]

I tend to agree with kayak; DC is right in the projected path as well...I'd tend to think further inland would be better than another location on the coast, except that with your parents she wouldn't be alone.

[CobaltBlue]

it will be a VERY, VERY, severe thunderstrom that will go on for a day and a half

No, it won't. Just a few hours and it will be gone. Two or three hours. Not so bad.

Plus, in the real hurricane's path, there won't be *any* lightning or thunder. Just wind and rain. Constant, howling wind and rain, then the eye passes, then the wind starts up again, and then it's gone.

And then, when it's gone, the sky will be clear and the sun will shine and it will be beautiful. Except for the destruction.

[PJ-Comix]

We've quit buying food that needs to be refrigerated, and are using up what's already in the freezers.

Sterno stoves and Spam. The hurricane treat.

[oceanview]

hold on until 11PM, the projected path may be changing, moving to the south. of course, that's until it changes again, but the more time passes, the more a consensus evolves.

[myprecious]

Hurricane Gordon did a lot of wandering when it was a tropical storm, but that was before it got big. Izzy has been very big and powerful for several days. The force of this storm is greater than the steering currents that all the computer models expected so far.

[floriduh voter]

I've seen everything now. Geraldo did a weather report tonight on Isabel. Stay safe, everyone. This time Florida gets a pass.

[U S Army EOD]

Hurricane Elaine in 1985 did basically the same thing. It came into the Gulf headed toward Texas then it headed toward Bay St. Louis, MS and then went down the coast all the way to Florida then turned around and came back across Bay St. Louis. What was the most interesting was that was my second exwife's middle name. Prior to that, while I was on my first date with her, my boat was struck by lighting. Do you think someone was trying to tell me something??