Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
Thank-you.
Worth repeating, since I'm in the utility business. Although the line crews are trained now days to expect back-fed lines from home generators, in a storm situation such as this, the odds of a lineman forgetting to check and ground the line go way up, due to the apparent haste of the situation. Don't feed the house fuse or breaker box without physically disconnecting the incoming wires from the utility. There HAVE been deaths from this.
The safest ways to use the portable generator are either through approved, weatherproof, adequately sized extension cords, or through a properly installed selector switch made for the purpose of connecting a generator to the household wiring without charging the lines going back to the utility.
Couple of reasons. (1) Fumes can get in through the soffit vents in the overhang (2) Gas furnaces (one up, one down) (3) Gas line in the fireplace (4) Gas cooktop (5) Gas water heater.
When we bought this house, the home inspector and I went down in the crawlspace and discovered that the flue had somehow been disconnected from the furnace. The downstairs furnace was pouring combustion gases into the crawlspace (and of course from there into the ground floor). As the home inspector pointed out, this actually had two advantages: (1) it kept the crawlspace nice and dehumidified (2) it lowered the price of the house. Also the house itself was so leaky that there probably never was any danger. All the windows rattle and the siding hadn't been caulked since the place was built.
Did I mention that the former owner was an idiot? We did get the house at a real bargain - but we've spent all we saved fixing the place up.
Yes you did. LOL.
A hurricane (or any low pressure system, for that matter) turns counterclockwise. If you are on the 'wrong' side of the storm, the forward speed is added to the force of the winds within the hurricane itself.
E.g., if the storm has 120 mph winds and you are in the part of the storm where the forward movement (let's say 15 mph for this explanation) and the hurricane winds are going in the same direction, then you will experience 135 mph winds.
On the other hand, if you are on the opposite side of the storm, the forward speed will actually subtract some from the hurricane winds.
I'm not saying this very well ...... I hope one of the real experts will try to do a better job of explaining it ..... but in terms that are easily understood to the uninitiated.
Btw, the same effect is also true for the storm surge ..... if you are in the part of the hurricane where the winds will be pushing the water ashore, you will have a storm surge. If you're in the opposite side of the hurricane, it will actually tend to push the water out towards the ocean, bay, or whatever.
He had Very Bad Taste. Balloon shades in the dining room in shades of pink and electric blue, walls painted Pepto-Bismol pink. Fake Tudor beams in the LR made of cheap pine stained dark walnut. Master bath was Florida Marlins Teal (at least I've changed that to a nice soft Nile green). Oh, yeah . . . the master bedroom is still painted mauve, including the fireplace surround. You can only imagine the effect of standing in a mauve bedroom looking through the door into teal. . . . blech.
He did hit one though -- the kitchen has bright red cabinets and granite countertops. It really does look nice.
So,...I take it he wasn't from around here. Yankee maybe? Floridian?
I never went to Charleston/McClellanville after Hugo, but I drove up I-95 to the Florence area a week after the storm - keep in mind this is about 70 miles inland.
It was night. For at least the last 50 miles of my drive there were no billboards or exit signs, although the power was back on in some places, and you could tell where the billboards had been by the spotlights shining into the sky. Along many of the exits, the power still wasn't back on. It's an odd feeling, passing a dark exit.
During Hugo, many large trees blew into the interstate, and some knocked holes in the pavement. A week later, they hadn't had time to repair the holes, and the trees had been cut off at the edge of the pavement, and the limbs dragged off, but my headlights illuminated the trunks, etc. at the edge of the emergency lane.
My aunts & uncles in the country still didn't have electricity back, and there were lots of trees down (some on houses) and some overturned mobile homes. I saw one mobile home that had the front half torn off. The back was still sitting there, with the furniture intact - it looked sort of like a showroom - but there was insulation & trailer siding scattered all through the trees around there.
Does that start to give you a mental picture?
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