Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[PJ-Comix]

Way ahead of you. We've got at least seven kinds of single malt scotch.

Good stuff. And if ever there is a time to get blasted it would be during a hurricane. You're stuck indoors with nothing much to do and you sure won't be driving anywhere so why not get HAPPY!

[SuziQ]

I think the thing about the 1938 hurricane was that the storm surge was driven up into the bays and rivers and they rose so quickly folks couldn't get out. It was an interesting program.

[CobaltBlue]

I am sorry about your child. Your advice is good. I know a family who almost died due to a defective furnace. We have CO2 detectors on all three floors of the house, just like smoke detectors.

It is very sad when people die due to malfunctions of equipment, and thought they did everything right.

The ones that make me the angriest are the ones where the people did *not* properly use the equipment. Either way, it is so sad.

A year or two ago, a local family lost not only all their children but some neighbor children, as well, after a power outage. They were having a sleepover, and used candles for light. There was a fire, and no smoke detector, and the doors to outside were blocked. If I recall correctly, it was at least six children who burned to death. The news reports said the firemen were devastated.

[oceanview]

that happened in new england. it just blew out long island when it crossed.

[djf]

I've grown terrible fond of the Dalwhinnie.

[oceanview]

it appears the BAMM model has changed, that was the one that was taking it out to sea, relying on a stall and the trough to pick it up. Its not saying that now, its moved from an "out to sea" to a strike in southern NJ it appears, the bottom line is that it has moved south from a coastal perspective

[radiohead]

i don't know what floor, maybe 2 or 3rd in an apartment building.

[Sam Cree]

Hi, Suzi. Now they've got this thing headed to my daughter, in upstate NY, at Syracuse.

[Gabz]

As the guy said tonight on MSNBC, North Carolinians are PROFESSIONAL hurricane survivors!

They pretty much said the same think a little while ago on TWC!!!!

[deadhead]

Residents on the Atlantic Coast buy plywood,
bottled water and other supplies as they prepare for the storm.
BY MARTIN MERZE

SEVERE WEATHER

Forecasters warned people from North Carolina to
New Jersey to begin preparing Sunday for a direct
strike later this week by Hurricane Isabel, which
relentlessly maintained its course toward the mainland
-- and its immense destructive power.

Floridians appeared to be out of danger,
but coastal residents farther north bought plywood, bottled
water and other emergency provisions.

'Unfortunately, the models are now in excellent
agreement with Isabel making landfall along the central
U.S. East Coast in about four days,'' said forecaster
Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

The long-range prediction had Isabel slamming into
North Carolina's Outer Banks on Thursday morning. Such
forecasts are subject to wide margins of error, but
meteorologists began speaking in terms of an inevitable
assault somewhere along the middle of the East Coast by Friday.

'Landfall along the U.S mid-Atlantic coast
somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between
four or five days is appearing more and more likely,'' Stewart said.

By then, Isabel could lose some of its potency, but
it was expected to remain a major, Category 3 hurricane
on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale -- with winds of at least 111 mph.

Isabel once again raged through part of the day as
a Category 5 hurricane, one of the most persistent
top-level storms in history. Only 20 Category 5 storms
have formed since 1947 and most quickly lost that distinction.

Isabel spent some of Thursday, Friday, Saturday and
Sunday as a Category 5 storm before diminishing to
just under Category 5 strength by Sunday evening.

'It's about as textbook a hurricane as you will ever find,
said Max Mayfield, the hurricane center's director.

In North Carolina, many residents stocked up on
material required to protect their homes.

John Byrnes of Wilmington said he purchased plywood
and screws to barricade the windows at his house.
His household generator was ready and he had an extra tank of propane gas.

'We're all pretty much taken care of,'
Byrnes told The Associated Press. ``We're in standby mode.''

[oceanview]

geraldo covering isabel. his house is right on the water in central NJ along the water.

[ZAKJAN]

where did you find that map, can you give me url? I want to share it..

Thanks

Jan (hiding for now in Southern NJ)

[SuziQ]

Look up Hurricane Camille on the net. That will show you what a CAT 5 did do.

West of Gulfport, in Long Beach, I think, a big fishing boat got washed up 200' over the 4 lane highway and another 100 feet or so off the road. It got left there when the storm surge subsided. I think the folks who owned the property cleaned it up and made it into a gift shop!

Our Fishing Camp is about 25 miles East of where the eye came over, so the most damage we had was the pier and fish house got lost to the storm surge. The level of the houses is about 25 feet up the hill from the water. There's a boat ramp going down to the river, and next to it, at the top is a gas pump. My brother was there when Camille hit, he was going around turning folks' gas off at their cabins (most used propane from big tanks) and he said that the water was lapping at that gas pump, that's how high the storm surge was at our place.

[Gabz]

But, as I said, it hits home with me.

As it well should. God Bless you for your strength in warning others about the dangers.

[agrace]

Absolutely. I bought one last year because of Howlin, we have a wood stove and an oil burner, plus natural gas stove. Thank you so much, it provides great peace of mind. Although thanks to this thread, we have to get a second - ours is a plug-in, which will hardly do us any good at all if we lose power, duh. :)

Also, we just found out from our realtor (we are putting our house on the market soon) that as of April, NJ law requires one on each floor. A good piece of legislation for sure.

[oceanview]

www.wunderground.com has a lot of stuff, maps, commentaries, etc.

[Miss Marple]

Well, batten down the hatches. Geraldo is covering this, and has footage of Camille to show people what it's like.

[U S Army EOD]

This is a typical example why should have kept the hurricane with just female names. It just couldn't make up its mind.

[Orion78]

Here is the actual GFS model run. (Green Track)

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_wnd&loop=1

[SuziQ]

Hi, Suzi. Now they've got this thing headed to my daughter,

Well, having gone through Andrew, she'll know what to do better than most folks at her school! We have one son in Ithaca NY and one in Pittsburgh. Look like they may get more winds and rain from this thing than we will here close to the MA coast.