Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
I know this might sound dumb, but if the authorities know a hurricane of this magnitude is headed their way, wouldn't/couldn't they make a decision to shut down the power in the area to help protect against potential electrocutions in flood waters, etc.? Seems logical to me, but what do I know?
The power companies are pretty good about turning off downed power lines pretty quickly. And anyone who is out wandering in the middle of the storm when this is likely to be a problem already has a death wish.
Or Calypso Louie.
Heck I had a pair of flip-flops when I was a kid in the 60's.
We had friends and family in Wilmington tell us that Bertha ended up being a huge blessing to SE NC. She was a much weaker storm but took out a lot of the weakened trees, etc. People had time to clean up before Fran came along. Without Bertha's preliminary sweep through the area, the damage from Fran would have much worse because so many more trees would have all come down at once.
We had only been gone from eastern NC three years when Fran came through. We talked to the people who had been our next door neighbors in a small town north of Wilmington. Our old neighborhood didn't get power back for a week. "Our" lot, which had been full of pine trees, ended up with not a single one left standing. Three fell on the house.
..... Some of them actually survived the hurricane itself but were leaning. The ground was so soggy that throughout the week, they continued to fall until they were all down. I went through there a month later and you could still smell all the pine sap from the number of trees that had come down or snapped off during Fran.
And then when Floyd came through, a friend, whose home was not flooded, told us that they were fine ...... they only had 3 trees down on their house but thankfully they weren't flooded out so they considered themselves lucky!
Bet THAT was one wild ride!
Since you are a sailor, I will take that as tongue in cheek but if you are telling the truth, that is an amazing story! Actually, either way it's an amazing story. ;^)
New Orleans Meteorologist Nash Roberts gives his papers to Loyola
Long before Weather forecasters got to be television celebrities, Nash Roberts was forecasting weather conditions for areas as far away as the Gulf of Tonkin for his clients. It was said that no banana boat left South America without Nash's blessing, or rather, his forecast. Oil companies contracted Nash's company to get information about taking their crews off of their oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons.
The Nash Roberts forecasting accuracy was introduced to the TV screens of New Orleans soon after Ch 6 signed on the air and continued on WDSU-TV for over a quarter of a century in the 5PM, 6PM aand 10PM news programs as well as the "Midday" program. On the rare days when Nash was not available to do his weather program, his brother, Ep Roberts, also a professional meteorologist filled in. Another expert in the weather forecasting business, John Cordero, a member of the Roberts weather forecasting organization, filled in when neither of the Roberts brothers were available.
When the Edgar Stern sold WDSU AM-FM-TV Nash continued his weathercasts first on WVUE Channel 8 and later on WWL-TV Channel 4.
The people in New Orleans and the surrounding areas never said: "I wonder what the weather will be like." Instead, they asked: "What does Nash say?" When Nash finally retired from the broadcasting scene, he left several TV weathermen and their fancy radar and electronic presentations battling to assume his title and position as THE weather authority for the Gulf South. Nash Roberts was inducted into the GNOBA Hall of Fame in 1994.
Wish I could...but, if you find one, let me know. It might be a good place to ride out the storm ;^)
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