TO PARAPHRASE THAT SAYING ABOUT REAL ESTATE...THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE TROPICS CURRENTLY ARE ISABEL..ISABEL...AND ISABEL. VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS PERSISTED FOR DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM. DAY 4 TO 5 HURRICANE GUIDANCE FROM NHC NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A CATEGORY III HURRICANE. THE IMPACT WHERE IT COMES ASHORE IS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS FOR BUOY 44009 SE OF CAPE MAY HAS HAD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS VARIED FROM 36 TO 52(!) FEET WITH HURRICANE PASSAGE. HIGHEST OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHT EVER AT THIS BUOY HAS BEEN 25 FEET WITH THE DECEMBER 1992 STORM.
HISTORICAL PARALLELS INCLUDE THE 1933 CHESAPEAKE-POTOMAC HURRICANE. THIS STORM MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES AND MOVED UP WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...YET PRODUCED HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS NORTHWARD UP INTO NEW JERSEY...SWEPT FISHING PIERS AWAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND CUT THE INLET WHICH NOW FORMS THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OCEAN CITY MD. STORM SURGE FROM THIS HURRICANE PUSHED UP THE DELAWARE BAY...RESULTING IN A 5 TO 6 FT SURGE AT PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON.
CURRENT HYDROLOGY SITUATION IS ALSO CAUSE FOR CONCERN. AS OPPOSED TO HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY TO HOLD RAINFALL RUNOFF IS RATHER SMALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ISABEL PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INLAND WIND DAMAGE...DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK AND ITS STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
GOOD NEWS IS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS. STORM IS APPROACHING AFTER LABOR DAY...SO COASTAL POPULATION IS REDUCED. AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER AS WE MOVE TOWARD 3RD QUARTER MOON. AND THATS ABOUT IT.
USERS OF EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST GRIDS...BE AWARE THAT POLICY LIMITS MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH TO 33 KTS OUT PAST THE 72 HOUR FORECAST. THIS IS TO REFLECT THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE HURRICANE FORECAST TRACK AT GREATER TIME RANGES. REFER TO NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM.
POP QUIZ...WHEN WAS THE LAST OFFICIAL LANDFALLING HURRICANE IN NEW JERSEY? SEPTEMBER 16TH IN 1903. THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY IS IN TWO DAYS.
NOW IS THE TIME WHERE BEING PREPARED PAYS OFF. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. CHECK OUR WEB SITE...WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AS WELL AS PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IF THE HURRICANE THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
FINAL GRIDS/PRODUCT ISSUANCE WILL BE HELD UNTIL AFTER 415 PM. .AVIATION...POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET NJ TONIGHT FOR PERSISTENT SWELL. NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS NOW HIGHLIGHTED AS POSSIBLE IN CWF FOR THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.
SZATKOWSKI