Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[sweet_diane]

"Weathering a power outage with a toddler can be H3LL"

What helped us during one of the hurricane outages when we had toddlers were those cassette tape storybooks, I guess they still make those! Craft items, the toddlers own flashlight (you can make really cool shadows on the wall) and alot of handi wipes too!

[Ditter]

The saddest are the boat owners who haven't kept their insurance up. If you can't haul it out, forget it. Its not worth your life trying to ride it out.

[abner]

Good luck, then! I'll probably see you in BJ's and Genuardi's in Lionville tomorrow!

Sounds good. If you see a vehicle in the parking lot painted like the flag, it is probably me. LOL! I have to figure out what to do with the two cats at work. I can't imagine bringing them home with the other two I have here. .. . I also can't imagine a power outage with a toddler.

[pepsi_junkie]

OH MY GOD.......I'm in South Jersey!!!

Me too dawg. and I just bought a house, hate to see it knocked over. Grrrr.

[Gabz]

Thanks - we plan to do our best.

If the shore needs to be evacuated, I would much prefer knowing the folks coming from the islands and waterfront on either side make it to 13. It's really the only way out of here and I'm only 8 miles from the Maryland line and all those coastal folks will also be heading for 13.

There's a HS 2 miles from me and the elementary school is less than 5. We live on fairly high ground for the shore and and have no trees close enough to put the house in iminent danger. The barn is a different story, but there is nothing I can do about that.

I'm not being complacent - just pragmatic. I actually live further away from the water now, than I did when I lived in Delaware.

[oceanview]

that map is so hard to read, is this new? did the models shift north?

[sweet_diane]

"Watch the news, and if they say "evacuate," follow their advice. "

And if you choose to ride it out don't freak out, as I did, when the local law enforcement comes by to get the name of your next of kin. Should the worse happen it helps them find someone to oversee what is left of your property. It also gives them an idea of where to send search and rescue when they are able to go looking for survivors (after the storm passes).

I'm just hoping this thing blows on out to sea. Anyone who thinks a Cat 3 is a piece of cake didn't witness Fredric's fury!

[hosepipe]

As has been repeated many times over...
Hurricanes of this size and intensity do whatever they want to..(make their own course)
until they peter out over land...

[Malacoda]

Guess I better add baby wipes to the BJ's list, and crayons, too! Thanks for the suggestions.

[Howlin]

I think that's one that was issued this morning.

Dog, the next update will be at 5, then again at 11; tomorrow they will start going out there more often. (The alerts will come in emails around 4:30 -- usually!)

[Gabz]

Weathering a power outage with a toddler can be H3LL

I HEAR you loud and clear!!! Even a one hour power outage is murder.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

A hurricane is less likely to kill hundreds of people in the U.S. nowadays.

I wouldn't bet on that.

This storm might impact the most densely populated coast.

[Gabz]

Guess I better add baby wipes to the BJ's list, and crayons, too!

Glow in the dark stickers help as well.

[Dog]

I've checked it often....it seems to have changed.

[sweet_diane]

With flood conditions, many times your water supply will be contaminated. Fill your bathtub (and any other container you can) and keep Purell or something similar around, those toddlers can't keep their hands out of their mouths!

Before every hurricane season we stock our 'storm bag' with canned foods (and manual can opener!), batteries, all kinds of ready to eat food, wipes, ointments etc. I try and always have one ready to grab and go should we need to evacuate quickly. And don't forget to keep important papers and those extra special pictures close at hand.

[U S Army EOD]

Yep the Gulf Stream comes in right off the other banks and is a wide open area for it to strenghen.

[oceanview]

that's true, not everyone can be evacuated. i don't know that area very well, but I know where I live, no way the south shore of long island could be evacuated in anything less then 2+ days. so when are they going to start?

[oceanview]

but just north of hatteras, buoys show a water temp of 68 degrees all the way north up the coast.

[Dog Gone]

I distinctly remember asking you yesterday to "pick something different!"

Oh yes, I do recall that request...sorry.

Well, I'm not making a firm pick until tomorrow. This sucker needs to quit moving west, and only when it does will I really feel confident about my guess.

I have a feeling a lot of people on the eastern seaboard are going to be taking some days off work this week.

[uglybiker]

Does anyone in the Southeast remember Hurricane Hugo. It was the biggest disaster in American history until Andrew hit South Florida 3 years later. I had two friends who lost fathers in Hugo.

I know Miss Dixie does! She's in "Summahville" and, at the time, I was up in the po' end of Dorchester County (St. George). We'll hafta swap some stories.

As for Andrew, everybody talks about S. Florida. Nobody ever mentions that Andrew crossed Florida, regained strength in the Gulf, and smacked Louisianna and darn near the same strength. Nuthin' but a buncha right-wing crazies live in S. Carolina and Louisianna, so I guess the powers that be don't figure they're worth a mention. (Not enough of 'em have vacation homes there.)