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Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States
National Hurricane Center ^
| 9/14/03
| NHC
Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: hurricaneisabel
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To: Dog Gone
I'm right on the left-hand edge of the forecast track, sorta where SC, GA, and NC come together.
Better stock up on beer and gasoline, just in case.
21
posted on
09/14/2003 9:05:00 AM PDT
by
snopercod
(It ain't over until I say it's over.)
To: blam
People here still talk about Agnes with awe and respect.
22
posted on
09/14/2003 9:06:08 AM PDT
by
abner
(In search of a witty tag line...)
To: I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things Does anyone know the reason their alerts are always in caps? It annoys the heck out of me.
23
posted on
09/14/2003 9:06:16 AM PDT
by
jmc813
(Check out the FR Big Brother 4 thread! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/943368/posts)
To: I_love_weather
Where was that guy telling me I lived in Connecticut and therefore shouldn't comment on hurricanes? ;-)
24
posted on
09/14/2003 9:07:04 AM PDT
by
nwctwx
To: abner
One of the local papers has a section on Agnes.
Click here if anyone's interested.
25
posted on
09/14/2003 9:08:36 AM PDT
by
mewzilla
To: SamAdams76
A widespread incidence of 5-10 inch rains in these areas (common for any tropical storm) could well end up causing more damage than the winds and ocean surf. That is exactly what Allison did two years ago. It swept through Houston dumping about 10 inches and saturating the ground, then a day later it swung back around and came to a lingering stop right on top of us then dumped another 20 inches. The ground was already saturated from the first round so the freeways all turned into lakes for the better part of a week.
To: pettifogger
Bump!
This whole weekend was rained out. Grrr.... It was great to meet you though on Thursday.
27
posted on
09/14/2003 9:09:14 AM PDT
by
abner
(In search of a witty tag line...)
To: Dog Gone; mewzilla
This is thing will be almost directly over me.....oh crap. I'm in South Jersey....going to be a wild ride I think.
28
posted on
09/14/2003 9:09:32 AM PDT
by
Dog
To: abner
"People here still talk about Agnes with awe and respect." Same with Camille and Frederic in theses parts. My parents were without electric for five weeks after Frederic hit Mobile in '79.
29
posted on
09/14/2003 9:09:44 AM PDT
by
blam
To: Romulus
ping :-p
30
posted on
09/14/2003 9:10:09 AM PDT
by
nwctwx
To: Diddle E. Squat
"What will the economic impact be?" I don't know about economic impact, but I'm more than just a bit upset that our golf tournament may be rained out!
To: Dog
Does your area do much in terms of hurricane prep?
32
posted on
09/14/2003 9:10:43 AM PDT
by
mewzilla
To: GOPcapitalist
Let me be the third to agree. There are no heroes here. THe heroes are the ones who protect their families first, and then their property. Better safe than sorry. This is going to be a nasty one. I would scoff at a cat 1, but cat 5 means there will be major damage. It doesn't matter how big and burly you are, a falling tree will hurt ya.
Stay safe everybody.
To: I_love_weather
Hopefully, it will parallel the coast for awhile and dissipate a bunch. The forecast chart shows a rapid acceleration which should help weaken the storm.
This storm is somewhat weird. It has an extremely large eye. Look at the satellite images. I don't know what effect that has on the storm's intensity but I would guess it keeps the storm from strengthening.
My sister lives west of Philadelphia. If the storm follows the forecast track, she'll be just to the east of the center. Yikes!
34
posted on
09/14/2003 9:11:30 AM PDT
by
mikegi
To: mewzilla
Thanks for the link. I'm not looking forward to this at all. My house is on a big hill, but my office is at the bottom of a big hill.
35
posted on
09/14/2003 9:11:33 AM PDT
by
abner
(In search of a witty tag line...)
To: mewzilla
No.
36
posted on
09/14/2003 9:11:42 AM PDT
by
Dog
To: July 4th
I see why the folks on the Weather Channel were worried...
37
posted on
09/14/2003 9:13:07 AM PDT
by
meg70
To: snopercod
beer will get you thru times of no gasoline,,better than vice versa... urrr.. but I guess you would need gas to keep the generator going to keep the beer fridge cold. Darn. ;-)
Good luck to all the East Coasters and wishes for minimal damage at the worst , but either way, Be Prepared!
38
posted on
09/14/2003 9:13:20 AM PDT
by
NormsRevenge
(Semper Fi .. <<<<<<< Elect Arnold And The Yolk's on You! >>>>>>>)
To: mikegi
My sister lives west of Philadelphia. If the storm follows the forecast track, she'll be just to the east of the center. Yikes! That is where we are.
39
posted on
09/14/2003 9:13:28 AM PDT
by
abner
(In search of a witty tag line...)
To: I_love_weather
The 200MB and 500MB charts are showing movement of the central trough and winds close to 100MPH; the high pressure remains strong just off the coast and this is still too early to bet the rent money on.
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