Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Howlin]

The storm is certainly further north than it was yesterday, but the more it moves due west, the greater the danger to the Carolinas, IMO.

I distinctly remember asking you yesterday to "pick something different!"

[oceanview]

that is true. and the faster it goes, the less the trough in the central US will have a chance to move south and east and pick it up and move it more to the north. so the faster it goes, the further south it makes landfall. I think, I am hardly a professional at this. but someone please back up or refute this: the faster it begins to move, the further south it strikes.

[Miss Marple]

I don't like seeing that number 19 again. I keep expecting Rod Serling to pop out from around a corner.

[Howlin]

Stay safe.

[Centurion2000]

I'll see your bet a raise you a dropping millibar. They designed this one to hit DC on the 19th.

This one has fist of God all over it. Guess we'll see.

[alnick]

They stay behind to protect against looters.

Yes. I have friends who live on Grand Isle, a seven-mile island south of New Orleans. They evacuate, but there are always those who stay behind. They do their best to get back as early as possible to protect against looters, but it's insane to stay behind with the idea to protect against looters, especially right on the coast.

[per loin]

I'd reckon it to be the same folks that fired that one through Exmouth a few years back, whoever that was.

[Malacoda]

We're not far from you, in Downingtown. In '99, when Floyd hit, we were stuck in our house until the Brandywine went down....Business Route 30 and Pennsylvania Ave. were under water at Kerr Park, as was Manor Ave. We couldn't go ANYWHERE.

Guess tomorrow's trip to the store will have to be a big one.

[djf]

Yup. And even though I was beat like a Canadian seal pup yesterday, I still think water temperature gradient could effect the path, and trend it southward.

[sweet_diane]

"Most permanent structures can withstand Category 3 winds, although flying debris can break windows and crack brick."

People tend to overlook items in their yard and their neighbors yards. Now might be a good time to check with neighbors who may need some assitance with preparations.. elderly, those with spouses overseas, widows etc.

Following some tropical storm, don't remember the name, we had large sheets of metal signage from an amusement park two blocks away blowing thru our yard. Had the house not been on pilings and the windows not boarded up, we definately would have had a mess on our hands.

Hope everyone stays safe!

[abner]

My house is in East Fallowfield, and my office is in Chester Springs. I think we should really stock up this week because I take business route 30 to work everyday...

[MEG33]

Gig em.

[Dog]

I just looked at the computer modeals again linked at Drudge ....it looks the models are predicting a landfall near Southern Delaware...

[Malacoda]

Good luck, then! I'll probably see you in BJ's and Genuardi's in Lionville tomorrow! I plan to make sure we have plenty of TP, diapers, candles and batteries. Oh, and canned fruit -- plus I may have to pick up a few new storybooks. Weathering a power outage with a toddler can be H3LL

[MizSterious]

From experience, I'd say: don't panic, but keep a bag packed with some essentials in case you do have to evacuate--traffic is often a major factor, and it's better to leave early and then come back if it doesn't strike your area head-on, than it is to wait until the last minute and discovere you can't get out in time.

Watch the news, and if they say "evacuate," follow their advice. You can always return later if nothing comes of it. If it draws closer and it looks like it's definitely going to hit your area, go ahead and do whatever you need to do for protecting your property--boarding up glass, etc. Don't leave lawn furntiure, etc. outside--these can become lethal.

If you evacuate, be prepared for it: have the vehicles gassed up, the bag packed, some cash on hand, and if possible a bag of sandwiches, etc. to take with you--often hotels and motels are booked solid and you might have to rough it for awhile. Sometimes food and water become inexplicabley expensive in the wake of a bad storm like this one as folks seek to make a few more dollars.

Consider carrying important papers, etc., with you. Some of these will be irreplaceable. Others will make the insurance filing process easier if it comes to that.

Take care, all you folks who might be in the path of this thing. If it hits with the force it now has (let's hope it loses a lot of its strength), this is a lot bigger than a nor'easter. Stay safe, please!

[OldFriend]

supposedly the high waves and rough seas this week have been from the remnant of a previous tropical storm.

[MEG33]

Prayers for all in the path of the storm.

[Malacoda]

Good luck, then! I'll probably see you in BJ's and Genuardi's in Lionville tomorrow! I plan to make sure we have plenty of TP, diapers, candles and batteries. Oh, and canned fruit -- plus I may have to pick up a few new storybooks. Weathering a power outage with a toddler can be H3LL

[CobaltBlue]

Thanks for the link to the info on the 1938 hurricane. I had no idea that hurricanes could be so deadly in the Northeast. 2 billion trees knocked down. Wow! Glad we live on top of a hill, but now am worried about the humongous oak trees in the back yard.

All you hurricane newbies better read up on hurricanes.

Here is some advice you may not get elsewhere - even if you are nowhere near the ocean or a river, before the hurricane hits drive your cars onto higher ground, as the streets can flood - do NOT attempt to drive on a flooded street unless you KNOW how deep the water is. There WILL be flash floods and flash floods kill.

[OldFriend]

In 99 Floyd dropped so much rain that the flooding in NJ was shown on TV around the world.

Another Jan