Schwarznegger Gets 34% of Uberroth Votes..McClintock 21% (New Afternoon CA. Poll Number-Crunching)

Sacremento Bee Political Insider ^ | September 9, 2003 | Dan Weintraub

[meg70]

In a long and very interesting poll pubished today by the California Chamber of Commerce, (which has endorsed Arnold, and bits have been excerpted to the media) Uberroth backers were asked who they would support if he withdrew.

This is what they said: Schwarzenegger 34%, McClintock 21%, Bustamante 23%.

[meg70]

Probably not enough to close the gap and secure victory factoring in margin for error, but we will see.

[DoctorZIn]

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[finnman69]

Uberroth was polling at 5% in the field poll....splitting his vote will not take the elad from bustamente.

[meg70]

Gotta hope that Cruz takes a major PR hit now and his numbers go down.

[Texas_Dawg]

The poll has lots of other stuff to chew on including these head to head matchups: Schwarzenegger 49% Bustamante 42%.

and McClintock 41% Bustamante 47% head to head

It cannot be more clearly demonstrated than that. Arnold or Cruz. It's one or the other. Arnold would win. McClintock would not. There are two choices: Arnold or Cruz.

[Carry_Okie]

McClintock can close that 6% gap.

[meg70]

I think the CA. Field Poll is notoriously unreliable, I'd wait for more solid numbers before planning strategery.

[Texas_Dawg]

McClintock can close that 6% gap.

He can get Arnold to drop out AND close the 6% gap? Please tell us how.

[CheneyChick]

Are you series?

[cyncooper]

The poll has lots of other stuff to chew on including these head to head matchups: Schwarzenegger 49% Bustamante 42%.

and McClintock 41% Bustamante 47% head to head

Here is a poll that did head to head match ups. It's as we surmised.

This is not the survey poll you mentioned, so the numbers in that really should be very interesting.

[Carry_Okie]

When more Republicans find out that Schwarzenegger won't support Prop 54, and doesn't support a referendum against drivers' licenses for illegals, are you really so callow as to think he is going to hold on to that margin?

[Carry_Okie]

Please tell us how.

I did.

[Texas_Dawg]

When more Republicans find out that Schwarzenegger won't support Prop 54, and doesn't support a referendum against drivers' licenses for illegals, are you really so callow as to think he is going to hold on to that margin?

Oh, I don't doubt that he might lose the election. But you are actually saying McClintock can win? Are you crazy? That poll wasn't saying McClintock was 6 points behind? It was saying he would still be 6 points behind even IF Arnold completely dropped out. That says a lot about how politically ineffective McClintock is. He's on the DNC payroll I think.

[ambrose]

Guess it shows that Arnold supporters would rather have Cruz than Tom. Now we see your true colors.

[Russell Scott]

People only take polls seriously when they agree with them. Too many factors for any poll in this election to mean anything. Who shows up at the polls will decide it.

[Texas_Dawg]

Guess it shows that Arnold supporters would rather have Cruz than Tom.

I'm sure some Schwarzenegger supporters would vote for Bustamante over McClintock. Just as it's been clearly demonstrated that many, many McClintock supporters would rather Cruz be governor than Schwarzenegger.

Enjoy Cruz. You'll have no one to blame but yourself. Oh, and please don't whine once Cruz is governor... because the rest of us will be too busy laughing at what you've done.

[Carry_Okie]

That poll wasn't saying McClintock was 6 points behind? It was saying he would still be 6 points behind even IF Arnold completely dropped out. That says a lot about how politically ineffective McClintock is. He's on the DNC payroll I think.

No, it says how politically effective McClintock has been. Without Party support, and with far less money and name recognition, he is only doing 8% less than Schwarzenegger against Bustamante after only 4 weeks of the campaign.

With the way Arnold is performing and a couple of more debates, that gap will likely close. It was only a week ago when you were saying that the LAT poll numbers showing McClintock at 12% were bogus. No we all know that they weren't.

Just keep explaining away Arnold's performance. There is a logical explanation you know.

[Russell Scott]

After the debate, and the real nasty dirt is revealed by the Dems, Hasta La Viesta, Arnold won't be back. Go Tom go!!!! Yes!!!

[Carry_Okie]

Guess it shows that Arnold supporters would rather have Cruz than Tom.

That was the case since the beginning.

[Bob]

This is what they said: Schwarzenegger 34%, McClintock 21%, Bustamante 23%.

I wonder what the split will be after Ueberroth endorses someone. His endorsement could have some effect although I wouldn't hazard a guess as to how much.