Posted on 07/29/2003 11:11:58 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Three Democratic presidential hopefuls share the lead in nationwide polling of likely voters in a primary election, according to results released by Zogby International. Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, and Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman each polled 12% of the 504 likely voters surveyed July 16-17.
In similar nationwide polling by Zogby in March, Lieberman lead the pack with 18%, followed by Gephardt at 11% and Kerry at 9%. Kerry maintained his 9% in the new poll, slipping from 3rd to 4th. Dean jumps in the new poll from a 4th place tie to a 1st place tie. The margin of error for both polls is +/- 4.4%. Error margins are higher for sub-groups.
Other announced contenders are civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton (4%), North Carolina Senator John Edwards (3%), former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun (2%), Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (2%), and Florida Senator Bob Graham (1%).
Candidate |
July National Poll % |
March National Poll % |
Gephardt |
12 |
11 |
Dean |
12 |
4 |
Lieberman |
12 |
18 |
Kerry |
9 |
9 |
Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
Edwards |
3 |
4 |
Mosley Braun |
2 |
1 |
Kucinich |
2 |
1 |
Graham |
1 |
1 |
Nearly two-in-five (39%) say they are unsure which candidate theyll support, up slightly from 37% in the March polling. The first actual ballot box event for the candidates is the Iowa caucus on January 19, 2004, followed closely by the New Hampshire primary on January 27th.
Nearly half (48%) of respondents say they wish other candidates were running, while 41% said they are satisfied with the current field of nine.
More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.
A plurality (48%) says they dislike the President as a person, compared to 38% who say they like him, while 14% are not sure.
Two thirds (66%) think the Democratic Party should nominate a candidate who stands up for his or her beliefs, while 30% prefer a candidate who can defeat the President.
More than half (52%) of respondents say they do not favor a candidate who supports marriage for gay couples, while 35% say they would vote for a candidate who does support the concept. A plurality (42%) says they would back a candidate who supported the war in Iraq, while 37% feel their candidate should be someone who opposed the war. Just over one-in-five (21%) are not sure.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Unfamiliar Ratings
Candidate |
July Fav/Unfav/Unfamil |
March Fav/Unfav/Unfamil |
Lieberman |
57/23/18 |
63/18/17 |
Gephardt |
55/19/25 |
58/14/25 |
Kerry |
49/9/41 |
49/8/41 |
Dean |
32/6/61 |
16/8/75 |
Edwards |
26/7/67 |
28/7/63 |
Sharpton |
17/52/29 |
18/47/33 |
Graham |
28/15/56 |
27/13/58 |
Mosley Braun |
23/19/56 |
27/20/52 |
Kucinich |
12/11/75 |
12/11/75 |
Dean shows the most significant movement since March polling, doubling his favorable rating from 16% to 32% and reducing his unfamiliar from 75% to 61%. Lieberman and Gephardt both suffered slight losses in favorability, coupled with 5-point increases in unfavorability.
Geographical Favorites
In the Eastern part of the U.S., Lieberman and Dean are tied for the top spot with 13% each, followed by Mosley Braun with 5%. Gephardt, Kerry, and Sharpton each received 4%.
In the South, Gephardt enjoys the support of 15%, followed by Lieberman with 11%, Kerry and Sharpton at 9% each, and Dean with 5%.
Gephardt is also the leader in the Central/Great Lakes area with 15%, followed by Dean (13%), Lieberman (11%) and Kerry (8%).
Dean leads in the West with 17%, followed by Kerry (14%), Gephardt (12%), and Lieberman (11%).
Democrats vs. Independents
There is no common ground here. Gephardt is the first choice of likely Democratic primary voters (14%), followed closely by Dean (13%), Lieberman (12%) and Kerry (8%).
Independents who intend to vote in the Democratic presidential primary favor Lieberman (10%), followed closely by Kerry (9%), Dean (8%), and Gephardt (6%).
Pollster John Zogby: The Democrats still do not have a national candidate. Regional candidates continue to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but none have yet been able to capture the nations imagination.
The polling is part of Zogby Internationals Road to Boston series, which is tracking the Democratic contenders quarterly in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationally. More information is available at www.zogby.com
If it isn't a sure thing watch for the "health reasons" excuse.
However, if I were Rudy I'd sleep with one eye open.
When he was challenged on this number he admitted that he polled a total of EIGHT muslims and SIX thought gay marriage was okay.
Well, if it's good enough for Zogby, it's good enough for Justice Kennedy and the 4 dwarfs. More than enough evidence that the mores of America have changed and America needs the SCOTUS to lead us to the promised land by legislating from the bench.
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