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Poll of Dem Prim Voters Shows Geph., Dean, Lie. Tied for Lead; 69% Say Bush Re-Election Likely
Zogby ^ | 7/29/03

Posted on 07/29/2003 11:11:58 AM PDT by areafiftyone

Three Democratic presidential hopefuls share the lead in nationwide polling of likely voters in a primary election, according to results released by Zogby International.  Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, and Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman each polled 12% of the 504 likely voters surveyed July 16-17.

In similar nationwide polling by Zogby in March, Lieberman lead the pack with 18%, followed by Gephardt at 11% and Kerry at 9%.  Kerry maintained his 9% in the new poll, slipping from 3rd to 4th.   Dean jumps in the new poll from a 4th place tie to a 1st place tie.  The margin of error for both polls is +/- 4.4%.  Error margins are higher for sub-groups.

Other announced contenders are civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton (4%), North Carolina Senator John Edwards (3%), former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun (2%), Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (2%), and Florida Senator Bob Graham (1%).

 

Candidate

July National Poll %

March National Poll %

Gephardt

12

11

Dean

12

4

Lieberman

12

18

Kerry

9

9

Sharpton

4

4

Edwards

3

4

Mosley Braun

2

1

Kucinich

2

1

Graham

1

1

 

Nearly two-in-five (39%) say they are unsure which candidate they’ll support, up slightly from 37% in the March polling.  The first actual ballot box event for the candidates is the Iowa caucus on January 19, 2004, followed closely by the New Hampshire primary on January 27th.

Nearly half (48%) of respondents say they wish other candidates were running, while 41% said they are satisfied with the current field of nine.

More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote.  In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.

A plurality (48%) says they dislike the President as a person, compared to 38% who say they like him, while 14% are not sure.

Two thirds (66%) think the Democratic Party should nominate a candidate who stands up for his or her beliefs, while 30% prefer a candidate who can defeat the President.

More than half (52%) of respondents say they do not favor a candidate who supports marriage for gay couples, while 35% say they would vote for a candidate who does support the concept.  A plurality (42%) says they would back a candidate who supported the war in Iraq, while 37% feel their candidate should be someone who opposed the war.  Just over one-in-five (21%) are not sure.

 Favorable/Unfavorable/Unfamiliar Ratings

Candidate

July Fav/Unfav/Unfamil

March Fav/Unfav/Unfamil

Lieberman

57/23/18

63/18/17

Gephardt

55/19/25

58/14/25

Kerry

49/9/41

49/8/41

Dean

32/6/61

16/8/75

Edwards

26/7/67

28/7/63

Sharpton

17/52/29

18/47/33

Graham

28/15/56

27/13/58

Mosley Braun

23/19/56

27/20/52

Kucinich

12/11/75

12/11/75

 

Dean shows the most significant movement since March polling, doubling his favorable rating from 16% to 32% and reducing his ‘unfamiliar’ from 75% to 61%.  Lieberman and Gephardt both suffered slight losses in favorability, coupled with 5-point increases in unfavorability.

 Geographical Favorites 

In the Eastern part of the U.S., Lieberman and Dean are tied for the top spot with 13% each, followed by Mosley Braun with 5%.  Gephardt, Kerry, and Sharpton each received 4%.

In the South, Gephardt enjoys the support of 15%, followed by Lieberman with 11%, Kerry and Sharpton at 9% each, and Dean with 5%.

Gephardt is also the leader in the Central/Great Lakes area with 15%, followed by Dean (13%), Lieberman (11%) and Kerry (8%).

Dean leads in the West with 17%, followed by Kerry (14%), Gephardt (12%), and Lieberman (11%).

Democrats vs. Independents

There is no common ground here.  Gephardt is the first choice of likely Democratic primary voters (14%), followed closely by Dean (13%), Lieberman (12%) and Kerry (8%).

Independents who intend to vote in the Democratic presidential primary favor Lieberman (10%), followed closely by Kerry (9%), Dean (8%), and Gephardt (6%).

Pollster John Zogby:  “The Democrats still do not have a national candidate.  Regional candidates continue to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but none have yet been able to capture the nation’s imagination.”

The polling is part of Zogby International’s “Road to Boston” series, which is tracking the Democratic contenders quarterly in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationally.  More information is available at www.zogby.com



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; electionpresident; polls
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To: Faraday
slatter ==> splatter
21 posted on 07/29/2003 4:39:03 PM PDT by Faraday
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To: Brett66
If Rudy runs in '06 my guess is that She-Whose-Name-Must-Never-Be-Spoken will bow out prior to the election. She is the bully who runs after their bluff is called.

If it isn't a sure thing watch for the "health reasons" excuse.

However, if I were Rudy I'd sleep with one eye open.

22 posted on 07/29/2003 4:42:54 PM PDT by rube
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To: OldFriend
Zogby was caught big time today on a poll he did about gay marriage. His poll showed that 80% of muslims support gay marriage.

When he was challenged on this number he admitted that he polled a total of EIGHT muslims and SIX thought gay marriage was okay.

Well, if it's good enough for Zogby, it's good enough for Justice Kennedy and the 4 dwarfs. More than enough evidence that the mores of America have changed and America needs the SCOTUS to lead us to the promised land by legislating from the bench.

23 posted on 07/29/2003 4:45:32 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: rube
Rudy will probably run for Governor of New York
24 posted on 07/29/2003 6:09:39 PM PDT by OldFriend ((Dems inhabit a parallel universe))
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To: OldFriend
I've always been suspicious of Zogby's polls. Mostly because of the way the questions are worded.

For example, all polls on Bush's approval rating ask "Approve/Disapprove". But Zogby asks for job approval based on "Excellent/Good" vs. "Fair/Poor". But he never quantifies "Fair" or determines if "Fair" means approval or disapproval.

This distorts his numbers when compared against straight "Approve/Disapprove" polls.
25 posted on 07/29/2003 6:15:03 PM PDT by Fledermaus (DimbulbRats have a mental disease - Arrested Brain Development.)
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To: Ed_in_NJ
With Gephardt, Dean, and Lieberman virtually in a tie for first, we no longer have to ask Kerry why the long face.
26 posted on 07/29/2003 6:19:45 PM PDT by EllaMinnow
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To: Ed_in_NJ
Snicker Snicker!
27 posted on 07/30/2003 6:05:26 AM PDT by areafiftyone (The U.N. needs a good Flush!)
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