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Posted on 07/24/2003 11:03:17 AM PDT by FreepForever
Remember the emblem of the Communist party? The hammer and the sickle. With China’s newly adopted sector of commerce, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is sitting on a three-legged stool -- agriculture, industry and commerce.
In today’s China, the likelihood of a guerrilla warfare or armed uprising is near zero. Even if there are some sporadic acts of terrorism, there is simply not sufficient firearms in the society to sustain any meaningful impact on China’s militia. Contrary to public belief, the most likely cause of a social uprising in China is not the quest for more democracy. Democracy is never the first priority among the majority Chinese populace. Given the low education level of the general public, the crave for democracy is not strong enough to risk their lives and ignite the necessary forest fire in China to force a government change. So, both routes are cul-de-sac.
The most realistic scenario of a social uprising in China which can threaten the CCP still lies in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Most ironically, the CCP had built their power on these two foundations but, in the end, they are the most oppressed and exploited. They have contributed their lifetime of hardship but cannot share the fruit of prosperity like the city dwellers. They are the most disillusion people in China and, together, they constitute 90 percent of China’s population. Since China’s open-door policy in 1980, these two sectors remain the most dangerous and worrisome hot spots. Numerous internal reports (classified) in China’s central government have time and again sounded this alarm. The central government knows that they are walking on a tight rope but took very little action to
When the government want to improve cost effectiveness and revamp the old and mammoth state owned enterprises,the workers livelihood are sacrificed in exchange for commercial viability. There are a huge number of redundant and laid off labor force in state owned enterprises which are still owed pension dues and are on the brink of starvation. There had been numerous public demonstration, with protesters ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand, but were relentlessly suppressed by the government, most of the time, bloodily. Obviously, this policy doesn’t serve to defuse the ticking time bomb.
With the Government controlling both their production costs (in seeds, insecticide, fertilizer, animal feed, medicine, implements, etc.) and the produce’s selling price, the farmers earnings are constantly compressed by the government to the point that their income is not enough to support their own food requirement. On top of that. farmers and rural workers are further exploited and abused by corrupt local government officials who deduct all sorts of local taxes (such as road building, water, electricity, etc.) from their meager crop sales. The farmers’ animosity are up to the boiling point and will boil over any time. With the joining of WTO and the influx of competitively priced foreign foodstuff, the farmers’ livelihood will be further threatened.
Everyone is complaining that China is importing foreign jobs and exporting deflation to the entire world. However, very few can pinpoint the question: How do they manage that? If you look close enough, the answer is quite simple. They have an enormous supply of cheap food on the expense of the rural population. And, cheap food means cheap labor -- exploitation of the labor force becomes feasible because these people are forced to work for cheap food. By continuing to exploit and enslave these two peasant classes, China can afford to produce anything cheaper than any country. Look around the world, which other nation has this kind of competitive edge?
The use of unnecessary force or a bloody crackdown on any one of these regional riots could trigger a national outbreak. Only China’s super-efficient news blackout is preventing this from escalating into a catastrophic scale nationwide social unrest. However, the internet age is making this more and more difficult for the central government. If news of the regional social unrest leaked out and caught the attention of the general public, it would be uncontrollable. Self initiated social movements will mushroom all over the country. General strike in all national industries will cripple China’s production. Mass boycott and strike in the rural population will choke China’s food supply. Very soon, the strikes and shortage of supply will take effect in the cities and commerce will eventually grind to a halt. Checkmate. The People’s Liberation Army will have to take over major utilities (electricity, water, rail, etc.) to keep the country barely functioning. The government will declare martial law. Expatriates and foreign investors will book their next flight out. There will be long lines of people in food markets, stores and depositors rushing to the banks. No government, including Communist China, can last more than four weeks under this state of emergency.
The CCP’s iron-fist control on the civilian is working against her in this instance. Since it is illegal to organize any protest and demonstration in China, most of these self-initiated social movement and civil disobedience will have no recognizable organizers. This make it more difficult for the government to douse the fire by arresting a few activists and lock up the leadership. They cannot kill the snake by cutting off its head. It is a headless snake. If they want to terminate the movement, they have to kill the crowd -- the general public. However, both of these sectors are too numerous to deal with and are China’s artery. Can the government afford to use brute force to solve the problem? No, not even in Deng XiaoPing’s time. In retrospect, if the Tiananmen students were popularly supported by these two peasant sectors, the June 4 massacre in 1989 wouldn’t have happened at all.
So, let’s get back to the basic. What I envisioned above is not a bloody revolution. The whole process can still be bloodless if both the government and the public inter-react sensibly and rationally. Short of an all out military conflict, no foreign force can more effectively bring down the Chinese Communist government than her billion- strong people. If either or both sectors act together, it will bring the CCP to its knees. In a nationwide social uprising like this, even the CCP’s largest standing army in the world will be rendered completely useless.
That wasn't a big war.
And for China to cope with its present problems with foreign conquest equals a VERY big war. Two likely targets are known nuclear powers and the third is a probable nuclear power (and also has a 100-mile wide moat--they might as well be on the other side of the Pacific). The fourth likely target is a "shake-and-bake" nuclear power (less than 60 days from "Go" decision to operational weapons).
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Many crisis's occured....which saw U.S. carrier battlegroups posture near Taiwan.
Collectively..the number of U.S. naval assets which were assigned revealed the game at hand.
China [DESIRES] political tension.
Its a game that satifies their Ego on many levels.
It makes the "Court of Heaven" in Bejing feel good about itself..and provides attention on a Global scale.
One needs ask...how much does it cost to keep one carrier parked near Taiwan per day...then add all the other ships..plus logistical support...plus regional bases.
Now make that 3 carrier battlegroups.
China is basically playing an extortion reality.
The Taiwan issue is not really..China regain her holding,
Its China bang pots and pans..and make the U.S. spend Trillions maintaining military projection.
China knows the U.S. is not going to attack them..so its a convenient game.
Like servants scurrying about the periphery of the Palace,
China makes the U.S. come and go..they really do.
When things ease off ..China sets the demand bar a little higher..and forces the U.S. to respond to their move.
This is War...on a different level.
If I can sit in my Palace in Bejing..and make you Run around and spend Trillions...I AM more the master of the region than you.
It is no strange reality that North Korea is empowered...[Just so...Just enough]..so as to force the U.S. to spend Trillions maintaining an Army in South Korea..and regional military projection.
Currently..things are very tense concerning N.K.
Senator Joe Biden was interviewed this past weekend..and to some degree..I think he let slip the line in the sand which the House is having to contend with.
Joe's comment was this.."China must bring N.K. to the table to talk....talks must begin soon..or the U.S. will have no alternative but to choose a military option...he mentioned 6 months.
We may percieve that the U.S. will just parlay the tough talk endlessly..yet I suspect the seriousness of N.K.'s Nuclear shell game to be a very real threat..one which has a time limit set.
China knows this too...so now comes the dance....how long will China stall..and how far will they push this game which basically draws all regional issues to their Palace court.
N.K. is using a few Nukes as an extortion reality ..set against the Worlds Super power.
At some point..the U.S. has to say enough.
The message is dire...as others will see that the U.S. can be extorted via WMD.
. It will not be to long before N.K. is capable of miniturizing or building low yield micro nukes...and once they do..they can refit most of the Islamist/Fascists SCUDS..and in a few months..the U.S. and Israel will face an extortion reality off the scale.
Its unlikely ..Little Israel is going to sit back and allow the Arab arsenals to convert their warheads.
Iran..Syria..Egypt..will probably see Israel pre-empt.
To some degree the U.S. presence in the Mid -east is also a stemming action to blunt this conversion path..but it is a race against time.
Israels defence leaders conceed a missile war as near certianty in the future.
Israel has at best a 7 minute window to knock down missiles fired at them from regional nations.
This is a reality where..If you get it wrong just once via Intel..it could be a cascade reality leading to a Samson option.
Syria had an incident occur at an underground missile complex near their fire command chain in HOMS...Syria claimed a chemical accident..yet intel sites such as Janes ,Stratfor and Monterry Strategic studies hint that a covert opp by Israel and the U.S. occured while Bashar Assad was away at the Beriut summit.
Many North Korean technitions were killed as the SCUD C/D facility went up...noted by the intel sites...North Korea did a quick about face..and requested the U.S. come to the negotiating table.
U.S. and Israel will not allow the game's to go on...Iran,China are playing with fire on this one..other nations know aswell..that the game is very dangerous..such as Russia.
Pre-emptive action has allready occured.
If the U.S. does not contend with China,Iran and N.K.
The mid east will be tooled up with micro nukes
It will only be a matter of time before Israel pre-empts..and this would require tunneling nukes to ensure the deep layered facilites are terminated.
This is the unspoken reality of the term.."Axis of Evil"..its a war The U.S. must win..or this planet goes into WW-3.
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