Replies

Thank you for you excellent comment which has shed some new light and angle on the subject. I am humbled.

If I haven’t misread you, China’s aggressive and bullying stance is just a charade to keep the necessary political tension aiming to drains US’ s defense expenditure. But on the other hand, don’t they want the US to stay out of Asian business at the same time?
It would be their dream come true. China’s future aggression against her Asian neighbors will be unchecked without US military presence. Which scenario do you think is more beneficial to China?

Would China make a military move against Taiwan any time soon? What is the best time table for them? Would US consider the option to nuclear arm Taiwan rather than the moe expensive option of stationing the carrier battlegroups around the strait?

I totally agree with your analysis regarding North Korea and Israel. Yes, this is the game they are playing. If diplomatic option is exhausted, a military option is inevitable. the world cannot tolerate micro-nuke armed rogue nations and terrorists states. If this had to be the choice, it is better earlier than later, considering the risk. Since 9/11, I think the situation now is in a sense already WW3, fought in extended and covert actions.

This brinkmanship has been sort of co-opted to some degree in the past.
U.S. allows China "Face" in most issues...allows them to win the Public image war..ie the P3C Orion..where China crashed the U.S. plane and scoffed the Technology..and did it all right out in the open..while making demands on the U.S. to answer the great Insult they recieved.

The Corporation crowd desires China too..but they also have a limited patience for games...here China may find big money being spent to strir rebellion in their land..and make them squeal Uncle.
If the U.S. so wishes.they can play N.K. as uncooperative...move for U.N. sanctions.
China would be isolated..and view as compliant to terror and wmd production.
Soon China would be under sanctions..with U.S. encouraging business other alternatives..such as South Korea..Taiwan and other Pacific rim nations.
China's game could backfire....it could also lead to direct military action by the U.S. in North Korea.

China got clobbered good by SARS..they cannot afford business to become unsure of their market stabilty.
I think the U.S. will call the cards on them soon..its give up Chubby Boy in N.K.....or watch your oil/gas supply and market options shrivel.