Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

World Health Organization ^ | June 15, 2003 | StACase

[StACase]

The important statistic with regard to diseases such as SARS is, in my opinion, the number of active cases. WHO and News organizations don't report this stat. However, WHO since April 10th has reported total number of cases, deaths and recoveries from which the number active cases can easily be derived. So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

[_Jim]

an educated guess, it's an educated guess by Dr. Henry Niman.

The simple association of a few 'factoids' that Dr. Henry Niman coupled together to come to this 'conclusion' (his best guess I assume) bears no more weight with me than if you did the same in this case ...

[TomB]

It looks like SARS should go to zero by the end of the month.

This is going to upset a few of the professional worriers around here.

The SARS scare reminds me of the Planet X silliness, we're always being told, "next month things are REALLY going to get bad."

[per loin]

The flu season in hong kong is a bit of an oddity. It has dual peaks, one in March, the other in July/August. Here, the flu peaks during the colder months.

[_Jim]

I've had some of my most devastating strep throats and even a case of pneumonia - in summer!

I think that the winter aspect is a bit over-blown; it's not entirely without basis, but, contagion has obvious advantages in a warmer, moister climate than a dry, cold one. The winter and even summer 'factors' also differ from say, Michigan to Texas given that winter in Texas doesn't compare to that experienced in The Winter Water Wonderland state ...

[per loin]

Anecdotes are but mumbles in statistical discussion. Are you often the victim of strep throat and pneumonia?

[_Jim]

Anecdotes often serve as 'leading indicators' and a starting point for discussion ... besides, I wouldn't be so quick to brush off another's personal experience as retold factually simply as 'anecdotal' ... I have in the last five or so years found a 'cure' - a preventative cure - for that once re-occuring malady ...

[Fishing-guy]

The important thing now is to locate the animal reservior of the virus to prevent future animal-to-human transmission of the disease.

[_Jim]

locate the animal reservior of the virus to prevent future animal-to-human transmission

From the handy reference here:

-Strange new disease outbreaks--

we can conclude this is/must be an on-going effort worldwide ...

[per loin]

An anecdote offered in contradistinction to established statistical reality does not qualify as a leading indicator, and your injection of your personal woes into a discussion of when the flu season peaks (a statistical reality) certainly qualifies as anecdotal. That said, glad to hear that you no longer suffer that recurring malady. Stay well. It's better for you.

[_Jim]

your injection of your personal woes into a discussion

You are concentrating an inordinate amount of time and energy on one very innocent opening sentence to the exclusion of the remainder of that particular post ...

Was my relating a personal story that big a sin?

Must all discussions remain sanguine and devoid of personal experience to the contrary of established 'norms'?

[Old Professer]

In a few years SARS will be remembered as "the disease that never was" because of the hysterical response to an outbreak in a few locales that on further examination will likely be concluded to be simple but significant failures in prophylaxis.

Nothing else explains the fact that the overwhelming majority of area hospitals were unaffected.

However, every new strain of a known or suspected infectious pathogen deserves study and I am sure this one will be scrutinized quite carefully.

[FITZ]

No ---we're supposed to worry about monkey pox now. SARS is over.

[Betty Jo]

I dont think SARS is over.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3507534&thesection=news&thesubsection=world

Mums the word.

[KellyAdmirer]

Oh, sorry, missed the memo.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/42238/1/.html

Taiwan On Sunday Reports Five More SARS Cases,No Deaths

[per loin]

If you find your own comments unworthy of being commented upon, don't make them. As for time and energy, a few seconds is not much out of my day, and I've lots of energy.

[per loin]

I wonder if they called in the experts from Yahoo again to help suppress this nasty tendency of people to attempt free speech?

[StACase]

I dont think SARS is over.

What are you going to say in a week or two when there are no more active SARS cases?

[Betty Jo]

I will say, "that is freepin wonderful!"