High-risk dash - Baghdad by Wednesday?

Asia Times ^ | 3.24.03 | Marc Erikson

[Enemy Of The State]

High-risk dash - Baghdad by Wednesday? By Marc Erikson

"We have not seen on the battlefield a single coherent [Iraqi] military move ... We will be in the vicinity of Baghdad shortly," said US Centcom briefer and deputy commander of allied forces Lt Gen John Abizaid in Doha, Qatar, headquarters on Sunday. "We will lure them into a deadly quagmire around Baghdad and extinguish them," retorted an Iraqi spokesman.

Nothing surprising in either statement. The ambush of a US army rearguard supply unit near Naziriyah notwithstanding (with gruesome film footage of US dead and captured later displayed on Iraqi and al-Jazeera TV), US forces' high-speed advance on Baghdad is on target. Iraqi plans of mounting principal defenses around and in Baghdad are well known. The question is how exactly this will play out. On this, some bits of ancient as well as more recent history might serve as a useful guide.

In the battle of Cannae (216 BC), invader Hannibal faced numerically superior Roman forces. Both sides lined up in traditional fashion, infantry at the center, cavalry on the flanks. As the superior Roman legionnaires advanced in the center, Hannibal's infantry deliberately fell back while his cavalry, supported by flanking infantry, enveloped the Romans and attacked them from the rear. The battle turned into a rout. During the first Gulf War, Tommy Franks, now Centcom chief in charge of the Iraq campaign, was assistant divisional commander of the US 1st Cavalry, the officer responsible for division maneuvering. He confronted two Republican Guard divisions (Nebuchadnezzar and Tawakalna) and - along with the US 24th Infantry - enveloped and defeated them Cannae style. Franks later called it a tough battle - but it was over in less than 48 hours.

We have been treated to a TV spectacle of the advance of the US 3rd Infantry from Kuwait to the environs of Baghdad at record speed. Nowhere and at no time in history has mechanized infantry with major tank elements covered 300 miles in less than 48 hours or anywhere near that time. Brigades of the 3rd Infantry will likely start engaging Republican Guard brigades near Karbala in the course of Monday local time and expect tough going. But will that be the major battle ahead? It will likely make headlines. Meanwhile, however, it's of greater interest what happens elsewhere. If it occurs at all, frontal assault at Karbala, one of Shia Muslims' holiest cities, will be accompanied by flanking actions to the west and east and a possible polar opposite drive from the north by US and British units we have not seen on TV for 48 hours, but have hardly been sitting still. These include the main force of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force (with about 180 Abrams tanks), the British 1st Armored Division (116 Challenger 2 tanks), the US 101st Airborne Division, a brigade of the 82nd Airborne, and possibly the 173rd Airborne Brigade from Italy. Nor is it likely that the US 4th Infantry is still sitting patiently on vessels in the eastern Mediterranean waiting on the Turkish parliament.

The US/UK campaign to date has demonstrated an extraordinary degree of flexibility, making use of each and every element afforded by the "revolution in military affairs" (RMA) due to integration into US armed forces of advanced technological means in intelligence, reconnaissance, precision targeting, and individual and unit mobility and fire power. New as well is the extensive use of Special Operations and CIA paramilitary forces, which adds punch, precision, and the ability of force multiplication through enlistment of local allies and irregulars. Norman Schwarzkopf, allied commander during the Gulf War, had a strong aversion to the "snake-eaters" and made little use of them. Tommy Franks saw them operate successfully in Afghanistan and relies on them for execution of key tasks. Overall, the campaign so far has deviated markedly from the Powell doctrine of methodical employment of overwhelming force and cautiously sequenced use of air power and ground forces. G-day (commencement of ground operations) preceded A-day (beginning of air strikes). Total ground forces deployed number less than half of Gulf War troops. This makes "Operation Iraqi Freedom" a much higher-risk undertaking, but calculated and calibrated to be concluded in closer to two weeks than the six weeks of the Gulf War campaign.

After a weekend of some headline grabbing events marking US-led forces' setbacks, but routine developments on the military front, Monday will see further positioning for the battle for Baghdad. That battle could be joined as early as 48 hours from now. Certain only is that it won't shape up as merely or even mainly the old-fashioned armored-units collision at the "Karbala gap" the talking TV heads tell us to expect.

[samtheman]

There has been more resistance than expected, but I think it can be explained by the presence of Baath elements throughout the society, elements who stand everything to lose when Sadam is gone.

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #1

Yes, there will be a huge blow coming down from the north. As I said in another thread, it could be like the break-out of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan campaign. Kurds, Americans, and Brits all advancing together.

[em2vn]

Pick a better source next time. I don't think the Chinese Communists can be relied on for objective reporting. Here's the run down on your source.


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[Kevin Curry]

There has been more resistance than expected

Nonsense. Overall, the war planners planned for and expected more, and better organized, resistance than they have experienced so far.

[smiley]

Like Custer's last stand....

[Jumper]

The battle lines are being shaped by rapid penetration and deployment of US forces; follow on forces are still pouring into Iraq in Combat formations. Those presently on the ground are drawing Iraqi fire and the sources of fire are being eliminated.... Once enough firepower is deployed adjacent to the Iraqi's, the cat and mouse frents to draw fire for softening up purposes will gradually give way to increased break throughs. The calculated break throughs will cause the Iraqi lines to capitulate at some future point; whether one week or one month, they will lack the sustainability to remain in continuous combat.

[Coop]

There has been more resistance than expected

Huh? Less resistance than expected, in my view. Or were you one of those thinking we'd just roll into this country and win in 3-5 days? The Iraqis have made it pretty clear they're not willing to really defend anything except Baghdad. The surrender talks and efforts have unfortunately not accomplished that much, and given the terrorist activities of some cowards supposedly surrendering, future talks and efforts will mean even less. I'm afraid it's gonna get ugly around Baghdad, but I just pray the air campaign decimates their will and effectiveness. And I pray WMD is not deployed.

[riversarewet]

In the battle of Cannae (216 BC), invader Hannibal faced numerically superior Roman forces. Both sides lined up in traditional fashion, infantry at the center, cavalry on the flanks.

As they say, the Romans were still fighting the last war (using the same tactics they had used in the past.) This was their failure. Hannibal came up with a solution to their tactics (which is why you don't want to keep doing the same thing over and over.

Having said that, I don't think we are seeing the Coalition Forces "fighting" the last war. Going in before the Air War started for one.

The United States made a decision to keep the civilian casualties low, we can do this only at a price. I will wait until the war is over to decide if the price was worth it. But, having made that decision, we can not do what we need to do to keep our casualities low (bomb the hell out of everything).

There is more to war then being able to kill, you need organization, command, and supplies. Iraq will fight this war with whatever supplies they have on hand. No matter how much that is, it is not enough.

We are only seeing what the "embedded" reporters are seeing. What is the 82nd Airborne doing, what about the 101st and the 173rd? We are not getting much news from the north, or the west. I have a feeling we have not really seen the "shock and awe" campaign yet.

Anyway, that is my opinion.

[Jimmy Valentine's brother]

This is the typical Russian Strategy. Let the harsh land defeat the invading Army. In Russia you try to delay the army until the winter can destroy the enemy. In Iraq you delay until the heat becomes unbearable. Extend the enemy's supply lines and attack his logistics.

What the Russians seemed to forgotten was the Power of America's air arm. Think back or read about the Berlin Airlift and remember UPS delivers World Wide.

[CholeraJoe]

Nor is it likely that the US 4th Infantry is still sitting patiently on vessels in the eastern Mediterranean waiting on the Turkish parliament.

Interesting observation.

[Monty22]

I'm beginning to this this whole war is a farce. It's based on 'we have to destroy this village to save it' philosophy. It is also based a bit on 'if we dangle freedom in their face, what idiot won't take it?'

Well, a lot of idiots out there do NOT want it. The iraqis aren't worshiping US ass now because we've bombed them. Any notion that they would was folly.

I'm sorry to be so harsh, but we have to face it. You can't get blood from a turnip, as my grandmother used to say.

We aren't going to fix iraq. We *can't*.

That said, the option I support it depopulation. There's simply no other answer at this point. Either we give up and die, or fight and win.

Right now we're trying to play the middle and we're gonna lose, badly.

[thisiskubrick]

Pick a better source next time. I don't think the Chinese Communists can be relied on for objective reporting. Here's the run down on your source.

It's Hong Kong. "Technically" communist china. In practice, as unbridled a capitalist haven as ever. (I was just there a few months ago). Also, I wouldn't be surprised if that article was written by a westerner - lots of expats live there. Go visit someday, it's fun.

[catpuppy]

... we're gonna lose, badly.

Gee, if only the we Americans had a crystal ball like yours.

[teledude]

...Right now we're trying to play the middle and we're gonna lose, badly...

Monty, I hope you have the balls to come back on here and eat some crow when you are proven wrong... you are watching too much T.V. This is going so much better than the talking heads would lead you to believe. Just wait...you will see.

[Enemy Of The State]

FYI,
Im fully aware of the political stand of the sources which I read and post and Im not one to believe even half of what I read but rather put various pieces together from various sources and then compare them to each other to gain a better perspective of the issues.

Im especially very skeptical when I read anything which comes out of China or has anything to do with China.

Thanks trying to look out for me though.

Best Regards!

[Monty22]

If the arabs/islamics are happy and iraq is somehow free and pro-USA, I'll gladly admit I was wrong..

Right now I don't see that happening ever..

[Starboard]

Good analysis. IMO we have only seen our vanguard so far; a lot more of our forces will soon flow into Iraq and will be involved in a massive assault on Bagdad.

[Goodman26]

I agree.

I just don't understand why we are sending any ground troops in. Ground troops aren't going to help find WMD secreted away in some canisters in Saddam's third cousin's secretary's basement. And they are not going to help kill Saddam, who can be more efficiently killed by a massive bombing campaign, which is what we started with, and what will finally get him.

What good is taking over Basra or Baghdad going to do us but expose our troops to danger and cause us to get involved in expensive, ultimately failed efforts at nation-building.

We are after Saddam specifically. Forgetting all the past Bush blunders on Iraq, what do we do now? Bomb the living crap out of all the presidential palaces AND bomb all the mosques, hospitals and apartment complexes, includng the Rashid Hotel, where Saddam and his cronies might be.

It just kills me that we are pussy-footing around, not wanting to hit mosques and the like because of some misguided political sensitivities, while our troops are being exposed to incredible danger (fake surrenders, ambushes and the like.) We should accomplish the mission with the maximum aggression. When we bombed Dresden we just let the bombs fall almost indiscrimately, and we should do the same or more here.

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

If the arabs/islamics are happy

Since when did this become one of our strategic goals? Nobody expects this.

and iraq is somehow free and pro-USA

I would be satisfied with "uninterested in what's going on outside its borders".