Freepers: Post opinion on war starting (esp. ex-military freepers, please participate)

3/15/03 | ARCADIA

[ARCADIA]

Without revealing any confidential information, but simply by reviewing published sources and making gut-feel prediction, when do you think the war will start? Do you even think it will start?

[Peach]

Your analysis of when it starts sounds right. A new thread titled "Troops Move to Battle Positions" was just posted. Article in the UK's The Sunday Telegraph quotes senior military officials as saying it will start in the early morning hours of Wednesday or Thursday.

[prisoner6]

You do realize what you are saying is absolutly true!

It's a sorta central location but with lotsa hi tech stuff and lotsa security.

Some have said the war wouldn't start (I'm talking shock and awe stuff not the B1's hitting the no fly zone in the south with JDAMS) with the president out of the country. I think the Azores are so well equipped it's the same as him being on the US mainland.

At least in this kind of conflict.

prisoner6

[cmsgop]

[Jhoffa_]

The WMD angle is a scary one.

From a political standpoint, I don't know how quickly we would resort to using WMD's to be honest about it. We use them as a threat now, and to be sure if Saddam has them he will use them.

I just don't kow what our response would be. Make the ground radioactive for 10,000 years and kill scores of civilians? Doesn't seem like that's a very attractive option when you think about it.

[Wolverine]

Saddams life expectancy:

Current Market Price <<<< constantly updated; click on the links inside.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Friday night the 21st (after dark Baghdad time). Given the possibility of terror or disruption from internal leftists protesting -- it makes sense to start this on the weekend, when economic centers (business cores in cities) will not be as packed with people, and freeways and such will be less crowded (no rush hours). By starting it on a weekend, you give local civil defense and law enforcement extra time to prepare for Monday AM rush. And if it goes as hoped, much of it could be over early the next week.

[MoscowMike]

Howdy

Not to put too fine a point on it, we have been at war with saddam's regime for twelve years.

We only have a conditional cease fire operating in that conflict, but saddam's regime has not observed one single condition of that cease fire.

Additionally, saddam's regime is the planet's premiere state sponsor of terror. Therefore, post September 11th, we are technically at war with Iraq two times over, explicitly, as a matter of international law and American foreign and domestic policy.

Heretofore, we have prosecuted that war diplomatically, except for combat air patrols over the no fly zones, and the cruise missile bombing of Baghdad in 1998.

This diplomatic exercise has borne no fruit, saddam has only increased the magnitude and potency of his weapons of mass destruction arsenal. Only marginal gains have been made, and those only as a consequence of a quarter million man army on saddam's border.

So, your question is really, when will a shooting phase of the ongoing conflict mark the beginning of the end of this twelve year nightmare?

Hard question, I predicted mid January originally. But we had a long, humiliating, brutal awakening to the fact that france is our enemy in the war on terrorism and its state sponsors in a surreal, seemingly endless UN debate.

The realization that our ally in france is actually not an ally, not even a friend, but rather, an enemy dedicated to American death, destruction, and diminishment, came as a shock.

Now that this has passed, we are left with a UN endgame and the timetable on which the coalition of the willing will proceed, and the domestic landscape is one of resolute determination, even some domestic partners of terror on our political left have begun to call for the Commander in Chief to "get it over with".

The military landscape is different and the same. Our troops are at peak readiness, with every passing day degrading that level of readiness to prosecute this conflcit to its conclusion, they are also calling out to the CinC to proceed. Every passing day also worsens the environmental conditions, with sand storms and rising temperatures.

Finally, each passing day provides saddam with more time to prepare his defenses and maneuver his military.

Given the diplomatic, domestic opinion, and military readiness conditions, and the Iraqi military maneuvering for early advantage, and given that President Bush is a profoundly moral man, mindful of the untoward consequences tht will flow from any further dilly dallying about, I think that troops will move within 48 hours with 70% probability.

90+ percentile probability of MOAB falling to start the show is Thursday/Friday in my opinion.

God speed, American fighting men and President George W. Bush.

And dear Lord look over my nephew, deployed in the theater of operations, and over all of our brave men and women confronting evil, that the American People, and the US Constitution, may survive.

[Jhoffa_]

I would knock them down and eat every one of those hamburgers right now.. Like a stray dog at a picnic.

..and the entire US military couldn't stop me.

(Then I would run off into the woods, taunting them about their gay headwear as I went..)

[ARCADIA]

The Sunday Telegraph quotes senior military officials as saying it will start in the early morning hours of Wednesday or Thursday.

Great. These are British sources, and they seem to speakly earlier than US sources. Also, I wonder when the Israeli's will start leaking to the press. You figure they'll find relatively quickly of a go-time.

[Kay]

Hmmmm. The week ends in the Arab world are Thursdays and Fridays. Might want to reconsider. How 'bout Wednesday night, the 19th?

[peteram]

I heard speculation that it will be later next week. It makes sense to me, what with last minute diplomatic efforts winding up about then.

[oceanview]

Yes, I agree with you, its the big wildcard in this one. Very big. In my opinion, countries with WMDs can't be "defeated" in the traditional military sense. That's why I pray something else happens, some type of internal collapse, something.

[ARCADIA]

I guess I don't understand your concerns about
WMD?

[FlyingA]

It has already started, Quitely goin on since 3/13/03
General Franks gave the order.

[Hank Kerchief]

On 03/06/2003 Live free or die posted:

March 17 between midnight and 0400 Baghdad time, Here.

That is the correct prediction, and I told him so. It was a guess on his part, he explained. Nevertheless, Monday is the day, and has been set for some time.

Hank

[Peach]

Prayers for the safety of your nephew and for the sacrifice he is making. My step-son is in the middle of things as well and he was ready and willing to go. Our soldiers make us proud.

[verity]

Without revealing any confidential information...

My aunt has trimmed her mustache and my uncle has shaved his armpits. Pass it on.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

It's because it is in the middle of nowhere, with no easy way to get to it. Simplifies security dramatically. It is "neutral" ground (no lead host). Makes it impossible for the millions and millions of anarchist/commie/socialists in Western Europe to descend upon it with violent protests.

[cmsgop]

LOL!!!!

You mean like a Terrorist Pixie ?

[ARCADIA]

Increased CAP and ADA interdiction over the past week

What's that and why is it significant?