Posted on 02/16/2003 9:26:11 AM PST by ranair34
There already is a split in the West. If the Jihadists blow up half of London, this may reinforce France and Germany's stance on the sidelines but it wont put them there; that's where they already are.
If the US and UK have to go this alone they will. And if the UK is attacked in such a way, not only will peaceful Muslims in the UK suffer but you can be sure that no country harboring Jihadists will be safe from the forces of the US and the UK. As far as I'm concerned, that includes France and Germany! Well, we wont bomb them but when we succeed, there'll be hell to pay even when they come back groveling.
You're track record of predictions outside the Balkans is abysmal, nothing against you Fusion but I certainly hope the trend continues.
It's like coming home! Seriously though, there is one major flaw in the above scenario's... decimation of Britain's curry base. No longer will a patriotic englishman be able to go to a curry house in Bradford and have a bloody good meal for a measly few squid. Curry will become an exclusive dish, only served at the table of the Prime Minister and those who are rich enough. Mr. Noon, chief supplier of pre-made curries to the nations' supermarkets will be forced to flee the country before someone realizes that he is a hindu. Great Britain will slip underneath the waves, never to be seen again....Scotland will rule forever!
;) No point taking this thread seriously...
VRN
Then this will be the death of Britian.
The Thursday/Sunday night drink and then off to the curry shop is a tradition for all us married men.
Its are only time we get to brag to each other who rules the roost at home. Wifes are not invited.
So how is the FR Balkan front going.
Cheers Tony
Regs,
VRN
Oh how fickle the public.
I am in the mood for a curry now, and its not even Thursday.
Is Kate22, CrazyKat still posting, I know Pericles left quite a while ago.
Cheers Tony
I don't claim to be all that well-read, but I know old spooks like the spooky tales of Coventry. There's considerable debate in the fog, however. I won't type it all out from my books, but found this link to a Chuchill defender's treatise on the matter.
I've no idea what "dark" thing Tony may have seen, but it may well have been the devil waiting for him at the end of The Third Way. Blair prudently (the more cynical would say "cunningly") changed his course. That devil is going to roast Shroeder, who is locked on course, any day now. Shroeder's political demise is now on the horizon. He's always been a foolish fellow.
as General Giap did in 1968
Call me naive if you will, but my question on that matter is still: If the post-Renaissance Islamic world is capable of producing a brilliant strategist the likes of Giap, then why haven't they done so by now? From the Muslim point of view, past times (especially during this last century) have certainly called for one. China, Japan and Viet Nam have always been able to produce more-or-less brilliant strategists when the times called for them. Why would the Muslims suddenly become capable of producing a Giap now after such a long, long dry spell?
The Islamic entente plan is very sound and -- if I may be so bold -- a brilliant triumph of non-linear thinking.
Well, if I may be so bold, if this plan is indeed as you describe, it is not an elegant plan, merely a sophisticated one. Therefore, it cannot ultimately succeed. When you step back from details, it is clear that Giap was an elegant thinker -- these "jihad" planners are not. Elegance runs the universe. Always has, always will. Sophistication attempts to imimate elegance but is never a match for it.
By the way, you describe this plan you call "a triumph of non-linear thinking" in terms of a linear chain of cause and effect. Perhaps I'm just too dense to get it, or perhaps you believe readers here can't follow brilliant non-linear thinking, so you put it in linear terms for us?
A WMD strike on London sends a clear and chilling signal to France and Germany and the others sitting on the fence: If you get involved you get burned -- stay home and count your euros and be assured your oil import quotas will be maintained.
Are you contradicting yourself here? I thought you wrote your predicted attack on London would be limited to conventional terrorist weapons?
But on to the rest. The present leaders of France and Germany are merely sitting on the fence in a vain attempt to cover their dirty behinds, but the fence is crumbling even now and Shroeder's britches are burning. Germany remains relevant to the current "equation" as you put it, and shrewd Germans in positions of economic power (the only real worldly power there is, of course) realise that if they come round the Americans will not make too much fuss over the tell-tale brown stuff on their behinds (as the Americans pretend they have none on their own). No one gives a rat's tail what French derrieres look like. The French continue to be irrelevant and outwitted by the Germans.
These same shrewd Germans in positions of economic power also realise that whatever they do now will not guarantee their needed oil supply in the near short term (Shroeder counted his chickens before they hatched), but that throwing in with the US will be advantageous in the mid-term. They're perhaps still hoping those chickens will hatch in the long run, although the wisest among them must doubt that and realise their little oil game is up. Their American counterparts must soon realise the dangers of divided loyalties and that certain monopoloy is preferable to hoped-for expansion during this transition period. They'll all see they'd been trying to get ahead of themselves, were heading into uncertain territory, and need to pull back.
alienating their support in the peace movement
The so-called "peace movement" is even more irrelevant than France. Blair knows it, you know it, I know it, anyone who's not a complete idiot knows it. The present-day peaceniks are merely the brainwashed masses who don't realise the devil is waiting at the Third Way's destination. They believe they're oh-so-clever and progressive, but then "pride goeth before a fall" and their impractical ideology is more than five generations old and destined to die out in another one or two. So it has always and ever been.
The strike on the UK is designed to split the Western coalition along its most fragile fault lines.
The only true "Western coalition" is between US and UK, with Holland and Italy as junior sidekicks. Any "fault lines" are not fragile. They are cemented by money greased with oil. Best cement there is right now.
The images of London burning and Islamic entente gunmen fighting pitched battles block by block in the heart of London will send much of the Islamic world into beserker status. Not only will the UK be paralysed by an Islamic fifth column uprising -- but Muslim radicals around the world will feel empowered to launch rogue attacks against soft Western targets resulting in a self-sustaining escalation of the fight.
Should an attack such as you describe actually occur, then I concur with your prediction of its unfortunate result in the Islamic world.
The pressure on the US to stand down following this attack will be extraordinary -- this is the only hope the Islamic entente has of halting the US strike on Iraq.
A vain hope. Pressure exerted by the irrelevant is itself irrelevant. Although it may produce some irritation, it will not, in the end, play a decisive role.
Forces of Muslim dupes on the move down the Third Way toward h*ll. European Third Way idiots should tremble, but are too stupid to see where they're headed. They've all been sold to the devil. The oil barons and the captains of industry are finally beginning to see the light.
I've got 4 curries in the fridge. Home made ones are so much better but take too long to prepare (pluz the risk of leaving a bit of finger in there)...
Yup, Kate22 and CrazyKatz are still around:
You can always ping them a private mail of course!
Regs,
VRN
So the Americans have curry included in there latest MRE.
Cheers Tony
The prime Minister knows what is about to happen and I suspect that has given him his recent fire and ice demeanour...
Concerning Genaral Giap you ask an excellent question but I believe have based it on a faulty premise. I'm not sure the post-Islamic world is capable of creating a strategist of the calibre of Giap -- or even desires to. Giap was a prolific writer, something of a poet -- and fought in World War II and at senior levels in the First and Second Vietnam Wars. I'm not certain, but it is also my understanding he devised operational planning to launch a guerilla style fight across the border into Cambodia in 1978 but was subsequently overruled by the Politboro.
He was a professional soldier willing to sustain heavy losses factored by impeccable logistical planning. The Islamic entente has not the long history of warfare to have such a man/woman developed at this stage of their kampf. Their General Giap is probably 25-30 years old now -- having previously fought in Chechnya or the Balkans -- and perhaps commanding a hundred or so fighters in the coming battle...
It is unfortunate more Western leaders are unable to discern between elegance and sophistication as you have done -- no doubt some Far Eastern harmony helping you make that distinction. However as mentioned your thesis has one startling flaw:
What makes you think this coup de main has been developed by an Islamic entente strategist? The "jihad planners" you refer to have long recognised this weakness in their command structure. Like a modern day Western corporation on the ropes they have gone outside the organisation for this one. Look at the Giap-like sophistication of the logistical planning and the willingness of the Islamic entente high command to see their veteran stosstruppen wiped out if necessary in Hue and Saigon-like urban strikes...
This is no traditional Muslim attack sequence...
If you don't think a WMD strike can be conventional while still doing a lot of damage look at the South Korean subway attack. One man sparked quite the conflagration -- now think of a pair of Oklahoma City style explosions bolstered by incendiary boosters. This could be interpreted as "elegance" -- I guess -- although the results are almost too chilling to contemplate.
The fact remains that the Islamic entente now has the capability in place to launch a Tet style attack across the width and breadth of the UK. Such a simultaneous uprising, combined with the WMD strike on London, will win World War III for the Islamic entente if opposition forces can exploit this breach.
President Bush must move up the American attack on Iraq or the 21st century Chamberlains of "Old Europe" will have opened the door for the modern day Dark Ages the Muslim holy man has prophesied.
Going back to a chess analogy -- if you can visualise the Western armies (US and Britain) as the two Knights on the board at the start of the game and the Islamic entente (Iraq and al Qaeda) as the two Bishops...
The Knights are important attack elements that are critical in controlling the centre -- a key objective in chess -- with Bishops more suited for wing attack. However when paired, two Bishops offer more strength than two Knights and are a mating force -- unlike the pair of Knights.
Thus when two Knights match up against two Bishops the experienced player will always seek to exchange his Knight for one of the opponent's Bishops. That is because -- voila! -- one Knight is far stronger in the end game than one Bishop when the two are matched up.
The inherant strength of paired Bishops is their long range attack capability while commanding parallel diagonals. The Islamic entente has the UK in their sights with the Western King always in danger of being checkmated while both Iraq and al Qaeda still survive. However when Iraq is destroyed -- the remaining Islamic entente Bishop (al Qaeda) becomes weaker by much more than half -- then the surviving Western Knight (America) is the heavy favourite to ultimately triumph.
If it takes sacrificing London to defeat Iraq and save all mankind from the modern day Dark Ages then so be it. Tony Blair has made this agonising decision just as Churchill did in 1940 with Coventry. The exchange will be brutal -- with hundreds of thousands killed...
But lacking the elegance you mention, the West must rely on its "sophistication" to triumph. However should the West wait too long to exchange pieces then the Islamic entente may indeed checkmate the castled Western King...
May the Christian god have mercy on the UK...
The forces of freedom on the move. Europe trembles.
Vini, vidi, risi.
In the battle of Tetevo, the Albanian Muslims, led by Chechens and other al-Qaeda took to the high ground forcing the Slavs to fight uphill with small arms. The Bosnian Muslims also advised by Afghan Arabs including al-Qaeda would also take the high ground and defend the mountain tops but Serbian tactics defeated them each time. FYROM military leadership lacked the tactical abilities of the great Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic who would leave the Muslims on the mountain top and drive pincer movements around the base of the mountain cutting off the Muslims. This classic Prussian Kesselslacht doctrine is designed to encircle the defenders and forces the defense to go on the offensive to break free. The tactical superiority of the defense is then transferred on the attackers. Bosnian Muslim ranks broke on the superior Serbian defense composed of some of the best artillery in Europe.
Thus the Giap doctrine is in effect in the Balkans, though modified for a guerilla army using infantry weapons rather than artillery for its besieging.
Already the Kacanik Valley has been denied to NATO's Kosovo force forcing KFOR to rely on air supply mainly and has abandon the supply route from FYROM.
Prepare for urban warfare in Iraq. It is in the urban sprawls of central Iraq where we will see if what the Chechens have learned in Grozny has been taught to the Sunni Arabs. Will Baghdad become another Manila or Hue?
Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic was great enough to know not to send in his forces into the urban concrete jungle of Sarajevo. Attacks into defended cities wastes men.
Yeh, they might get trampled by celebrating crowds.
I guess it was inevitable.
What else is there to say?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.