Posted on 02/16/2003 8:58:45 AM PST by dmcg_98
Taiwan on alert against any Chinese invasion
2003-02-14 / Agence France-Presse / Defense Minister Tang Yiau-min (´öÂ`©ú) said yesterday the military had been put on a state of alert for fear China could take advantage of any war in Iraq to launch an invasion of the island.
Tang warned that Beijing's hostility towards Taipei was as strong as ever despite the unprecedented civilian flights between Taipei and Shanghai over the Lunar New Year holiday period.
"They have yet to give up their attempt to take over Taiwan by force. This was clearly stated by (President) Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) in the Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress documents," Tang told a press conference here.
China could decide to attack its arch rival when the world's attention was preoccupied with war in the Gulf.
"The Chinese communists could cash in on such an occasion," said Tang.
"They could sabotage and attack our banking systems, democracy and other social institutions which are superior to those on the mainland."
The defense ministry has also stepped up security and its monitoring of Chinese troop movements and improved its crisis management capability.
While ruling out any possibility of Taiwan's involvement in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, the minister said President Chen Shui-bian's (³¯¤ô«ó) government would provide humanitarian aid to refugees.
Tang also defended Chen's recent announcement in which he ruled out the possibility of direct cross-strait flights even after the resumption of air links with China following a half century hiatus.
Civilian planes would instead be required to fly on a detour for national security reasons even after direct cross-strait transport links are opened up, Chen insisted.
"The Taiwan Strait is a shield (for Taiwan). Wouldn't it be just what the Chinese communists wanted if the shield was removed?" Tang said.
Six Taiwan airlines operated a total of eight chartered flights to and from China for the first time during the Lunar New Year period from January 26 to February 10, but they had to transit Hong Kong or Macau.
Local business and industrial leaders have pushed for direct links between the Taiwan and China, insisting they would help lower shipping costs and facilitate economic ties across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese businesses are estimated to have invested some US$70 billion in China since 1987.
Commenting on China's growing missile threat, Tang said Taiwan had been working to build its missile shield.
"Research and development efforts have got underway to build a missile defense system. Hopefully the target could be arrived at within the next 10 years," he said, without going into details.
That is the conventional wisdom. I'm not so sure. How do they ship all those products that show up in our stores with "made in China" on them. I doubt they fly them all here. Containerships can be quickly adapted to other purposes, as shown by the Brits in the Falklands war almost 20 years ago.
Aren't many of the handheld GPS devices, sold in WalMarts everywhere, made in China? Of course not every junk would need one, just one for every 10 or so, which would lead the others. Still, they'd be slaughtered when the got to Taiwan, unless some really serious disruption of Command and Control, as well as the ROC Air Force and Navy. Althought the PLA Air Force has many more planes than the ROC Air Force, most are older and less capable. However they have about as many, or slightly more, of the more modern aircraft as does the ROC. I suspect ROC pilots are much better trained though.
They also don't have the experience to pull it off. Ever.
China doesn't need experience. It has more than enough manpower to outlast and overrun the Taiwanese.
This is a very opportune time for China. Keep in mind that North Korea doesn't say "boo" without approval from Beijing. North Korea is providing a diversion to keep the U.S. occupied.
For comparison how hard would it be for the United States, with greater technology, skills, and firepower than China, to take this island intact?
The Kilo / Song variants are serious submarines, but are badly outclassed by LA or Seawolf classes. The Romeo / Mings would be all but helpless, and should not be considered any more of a threat than a T-55 or T-62 tank against an M1A1.
As far as how fast could we get to Taiwan, I'd say that if most subs travel in the 20-25 kt per hour range, we could have the bulk of the fleet there within two weeks. (Figure 3,000+ miles per week. and given the locations of the subs.) I would assume that the bulk of the surface fleet, which travels faster and has ASW capabilities, could be there in similiar time.
That having been said, I'm not a squid, and I don't even know that we'd send subs into shallow water to dig out other subs. We may just use ASW helicopters and planes to drop torpedoes on them. Subs, as I understand it, are like shooting fish in a bucket when they're trapped in shallow waters.
You must assume that the Chinese military has some of their smartest people thinking about unconventional ways to invade across water, which would give little advance warning of the pre-invasion buildup. Merchant ships, inflatable speedboats, blimps, quickly modifying passenger airliners for paratrooping, whatever. Do not assume they don't have some potential surprises up their sleeves
They would be unwise to rely on U.S. GPS sats, which they realize. I think that a land based system of signal towers would be a safer bet, and very inexpensive.
However they have about as many, or slightly more, of the more modern aircraft as does the ROC. I suspect ROC pilots are much better trained though.
The Russian trainers and U.S. observers are universally unimpressed with PLAAF and PLANAF fighter pilots. Even though they have been getting better in recent years, they aren't ready for prime time. Dogfighting the ROC air force wouldn't go very well for them.
If China is finally feeling some kind of pressure to sit on NK, then NK might be threatening Taiwan. But fear of a PRC takeover might be easier for the public to deal with than fear of NK nukes? Just a thought...
That was before cheap GPS units. Now every small boat can successfuly navigate over the horizon, and arrive to within a few yards of where they're supposed to be. Even at night while its raining
However, it's important to deter them, just in case.
Even the stuff we had back in my USN days in the early 60's could handle them. With all our new toys, we can do it quicker and with fewer assets.
Consider this scenario: they finance some looney named Osama into taking out the symbol of American finance, and incidently plunge the US into recession. They then quietly give aid and assistance to Sadaam, and get the US to spend $billions on taking him out. In the process, this annoys the Arab world enough to make them raise the price of oil to further damage the US economy.
Then we find ourselves having to deal with a nuke-armed North Korea, and spend more billions on that.
Meanwhile China converts all its dollars to euros, sending the value of the dollar into a tailspin
Finally, a Democrat is elected in 2004, with the US economy in a crash, and is given an offer she can't refuse: allow China to take Taiwan, and China will bail out the US economy. Refuse, and China will manipulate the US economy into a 1930's-style Depression
Checkmate
Even if the boats get them there, they will be able to take very little food or ammuntion. Once the fishing boats start congesting an area, coastal artillery, naval craft, and air power will break it up. It will be a large scale version of the Bay of Pigs.
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