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Taiwan Goes On High Alert Against Possible Chinese Invasion
Taiwan News ^ | 2/14/03

Posted on 02/16/2003 8:58:45 AM PST by dmcg_98

Taiwan on alert against any Chinese invasion

2003-02-14 / Agence France-Presse / Defense Minister Tang Yiau-min (´öÂ`©ú) said yesterday the military had been put on a state of alert for fear China could take advantage of any war in Iraq to launch an invasion of the island.

Tang warned that Beijing's hostility towards Taipei was as strong as ever despite the unprecedented civilian flights between Taipei and Shanghai over the Lunar New Year holiday period.

"They have yet to give up their attempt to take over Taiwan by force. This was clearly stated by (President) Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) in the Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress documents," Tang told a press conference here.

China could decide to attack its arch rival when the world's attention was preoccupied with war in the Gulf.

"The Chinese communists could cash in on such an occasion," said Tang.

"They could sabotage and attack our banking systems, democracy and other social institutions which are superior to those on the mainland."

The defense ministry has also stepped up security and its monitoring of Chinese troop movements and improved its crisis management capability.

While ruling out any possibility of Taiwan's involvement in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, the minister said President Chen Shui-bian's (³¯¤ô«ó) government would provide humanitarian aid to refugees.

Tang also defended Chen's recent announcement in which he ruled out the possibility of direct cross-strait flights even after the resumption of air links with China following a half century hiatus.

Civilian planes would instead be required to fly on a detour for national security reasons even after direct cross-strait transport links are opened up, Chen insisted.

"The Taiwan Strait is a shield (for Taiwan). Wouldn't it be just what the Chinese communists wanted if the shield was removed?" Tang said.

Six Taiwan airlines operated a total of eight chartered flights to and from China for the first time during the Lunar New Year period from January 26 to February 10, but they had to transit Hong Kong or Macau.

Local business and industrial leaders have pushed for direct links between the Taiwan and China, insisting they would help lower shipping costs and facilitate economic ties across the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwanese businesses are estimated to have invested some US$70 billion in China since 1987.

Commenting on China's growing missile threat, Tang said Taiwan had been working to build its missile shield.

"Research and development efforts have got underway to build a missile defense system. Hopefully the target could be arrived at within the next 10 years," he said, without going into details.


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: antiwar; china; chinese; communist; freedom; invasion; nato; protests; taiwan; un; unitednations; weapons
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To: dmcg_98
I read an article the other day about the Chinese holding air raid drills on citys opposite of Taiwan, for the first time in 50 years.
41 posted on 02/16/2003 11:23:30 AM PST by Husker24
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To: Dog Gone
China doesn't have the amphibious capability to invade.

That is the conventional wisdom. I'm not so sure. How do they ship all those products that show up in our stores with "made in China" on them. I doubt they fly them all here. Containerships can be quickly adapted to other purposes, as shown by the Brits in the Falklands war almost 20 years ago.

42 posted on 02/16/2003 11:23:34 AM PST by El Gato
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To: Steel Wolf
As an old Navy guy, and 7th fleet sailor to boot, let me add to your comments.

Evn if the US 7th Fleet was damaged in some way by the Chinese, US submarines would be there in large numbers.

The Submarine Force is the "82nd airborne" of the US Navy, and could hold the lines for long periods of time until replacement fleet units came to help out. They are designed to do so, like they did in WWII.

The US submarine fleet would strangle the Chinese Navy, and the other surface units of the 7th Fleet wouldnt sit idly by.


Additional carriers could be sent there without even drawing from the Atlantic fleet stock by drawing upon the 20 day reserve fleet MARAD maintains. They have 2 carriers in fleet reserve in 20 day standby that could be reactivated.

The 7th Fleet is larger than the navies of some countries, and the entire Pacific fleet is even larger. Units deploy from the US to the 7th Fleet and then rotate home. The entire Pacific fleet would be mobilized to meet the Chinese threat in the Pacific. This is a major thing. The entire Pacific fleet could and would make China extinct.
43 posted on 02/16/2003 11:33:17 AM PST by judicial meanz ( socialism- its a mental disorder, not a political view.)
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To: Steel Wolf
The PRC has as many as 19 Ming-class subs to go with 38 Romeo-class subs in active service - with about two dozen Romeos in reserve (according to globalsecurity.org), but the total could be higher. I'm not sure about the total of the Kilo-class subs and Song-class subs (call it six to eight Kilos and four Song-class subs), but they also have five Han-class.

We're looking at upwards of ninety hostile subs, possibly upwards of a hundred. How many subs would be we be able to get to the theater of operations?
44 posted on 02/16/2003 11:34:17 AM PST by hchutch ("Last suckers crossed, Syndicate shot'em up" - Ice-T, "I'm Your Pusher")
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To: Steel Wolf
Trying to do over the horizon navigation at night in a fishing boat is just asking for trouble

Aren't many of the handheld GPS devices, sold in WalMarts everywhere, made in China? Of course not every junk would need one, just one for every 10 or so, which would lead the others. Still, they'd be slaughtered when the got to Taiwan, unless some really serious disruption of Command and Control, as well as the ROC Air Force and Navy. Althought the PLA Air Force has many more planes than the ROC Air Force, most are older and less capable. However they have about as many, or slightly more, of the more modern aircraft as does the ROC. I suspect ROC pilots are much better trained though.

45 posted on 02/16/2003 11:38:10 AM PST by El Gato
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To: hchutch
Of those 90 submarines, the chinese cant have the all available to service because of the material condition of the ships, crews, etc.

The US could get well over 50 submarines there if they needed to. We have a total of 129 first rate submarines, counting the SSBN fleet. We outnumber them greatly. There are also submarines in fleet reserve that can be recommissioned, that could add to our numbers currently in service.

Kilos and Romeos are pieces of junk too. They are so old and well known to the US Navy they would be extinct very quickly. Its like putting a Mig 15 up against a F-22. It wouldnt work, no matter how large their numbers are.

They could inflict losses, no doubt about that, but they would not be a long term threat. They would be eliminated very quickly.
46 posted on 02/16/2003 11:39:27 AM PST by judicial meanz ( socialism- its a mental disorder, not a political view.)
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To: elfman2
"China doesn't have the amphibious capability to invade. Yet."

They also don't have the experience to pull it off. Ever.

China doesn't need experience. It has more than enough manpower to outlast and overrun the Taiwanese.

This is a very opportune time for China. Keep in mind that North Korea doesn't say "boo" without approval from Beijing. North Korea is providing a diversion to keep the U.S. occupied.

47 posted on 02/16/2003 11:44:04 AM PST by ContraryMary
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To: judicial meanz
129? I could have sworn we had abvout 50 or 60 SSNs, the four Ohio SSGNs, and the fourteen SSBNs. The rest are in line to be scrapped, IIRC.
48 posted on 02/16/2003 11:46:33 AM PST by hchutch ("Last suckers crossed, Syndicate shot'em up" - Ice-T, "I'm Your Pusher")
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To: hchutch
Nope..we still have a large number of submarines. Decomissioned submaries are held in reserve for a period of time until they are disposed of. Some are scrapped, others placed in reserve.

I was counting fleet reserve numbers too. These numbers change often, and I may be out of date, but I know that it usually stays around 100-129.

There are also more in the building stages right now. The NSSN is currently in production.
49 posted on 02/16/2003 11:51:58 AM PST by judicial meanz ( socialism- its a mental disorder, not a political view.)
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To: judicial meanz
Second paragraph is misleading. Meant with the reserve fleet, numbers could be as high as 129.
50 posted on 02/16/2003 11:53:09 AM PST by judicial meanz ( socialism- its a mental disorder, not a political view.)
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To: Steel Wolf
Many people don't seem to grasp the complexity involved in taking Taiwan.

For comparison how hard would it be for the United States, with greater technology, skills, and firepower than China, to take this island intact?

51 posted on 02/16/2003 11:59:19 AM PST by VetoBill (Who is the actor that plays Dan Rather?)
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To: hchutch
Well, we have 50 or so Los Angeles class subs, and a couple of Seawolfs.

The Kilo / Song variants are serious submarines, but are badly outclassed by LA or Seawolf classes. The Romeo / Mings would be all but helpless, and should not be considered any more of a threat than a T-55 or T-62 tank against an M1A1.

As far as how fast could we get to Taiwan, I'd say that if most subs travel in the 20-25 kt per hour range, we could have the bulk of the fleet there within two weeks. (Figure 3,000+ miles per week. and given the locations of the subs.) I would assume that the bulk of the surface fleet, which travels faster and has ASW capabilities, could be there in similiar time.

That having been said, I'm not a squid, and I don't even know that we'd send subs into shallow water to dig out other subs. We may just use ASW helicopters and planes to drop torpedoes on them. Subs, as I understand it, are like shooting fish in a bucket when they're trapped in shallow waters.

52 posted on 02/16/2003 12:00:56 PM PST by Steel Wolf
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To: Dog Gone
China doesn't have the amphibious capability to invade. Yet.

You must assume that the Chinese military has some of their smartest people thinking about unconventional ways to invade across water, which would give little advance warning of the pre-invasion buildup. Merchant ships, inflatable speedboats, blimps, quickly modifying passenger airliners for paratrooping, whatever. Do not assume they don't have some potential surprises up their sleeves

53 posted on 02/16/2003 12:06:27 PM PST by SauronOfMordor (To see the ultimate evil, visit the Democrat Party)
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To: El Gato
Aren't many of the handheld GPS devices, sold in WalMarts everywhere, made in China? Of course not every junk would need one, just one for every 10 or so, which would lead the others

They would be unwise to rely on U.S. GPS sats, which they realize. I think that a land based system of signal towers would be a safer bet, and very inexpensive.

However they have about as many, or slightly more, of the more modern aircraft as does the ROC. I suspect ROC pilots are much better trained though.

The Russian trainers and U.S. observers are universally unimpressed with PLAAF and PLANAF fighter pilots. Even though they have been getting better in recent years, they aren't ready for prime time. Dogfighting the ROC air force wouldn't go very well for them.

54 posted on 02/16/2003 12:07:18 PM PST by Steel Wolf
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To: Congressman Billybob
I wonder if the potential PRC invasion is just a cover because they need to go on alert for North Korea?

If China is finally feeling some kind of pressure to sit on NK, then NK might be threatening Taiwan. But fear of a PRC takeover might be easier for the public to deal with than fear of NK nukes? Just a thought...

55 posted on 02/16/2003 12:13:58 PM PST by Lion's Cub
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To: Steel Wolf
The flotilla would get troops scattered and lost, landing on different points of Taiwan with no chain of command, supplies, or idea of what to do. Trying to do over the horizon navigation at night in a fishing boat is just asking for trouble.

That was before cheap GPS units. Now every small boat can successfuly navigate over the horizon, and arrive to within a few yards of where they're supposed to be. Even at night while its raining

56 posted on 02/16/2003 12:14:51 PM PST by SauronOfMordor (To see the ultimate evil, visit the Democrat Party)
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To: SauronOfMordor
China is a very patient country. I don't see them invading as long as they believe that eventually Taiwan will choose to join the mainland.

However, it's important to deter them, just in case.

57 posted on 02/16/2003 12:16:28 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Steel Wolf
The U.S. Navy would be the least tied down in a conflict with both Iraq and North Korea, so they could easily field enough power to break a PRC blockade of Taiwan within a week. (Any squids lurking, feel free to opine here)

Even the stuff we had back in my USN days in the early 60's could handle them. With all our new toys, we can do it quicker and with fewer assets.

58 posted on 02/16/2003 12:25:56 PM PST by JimRed
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To: Congressman Billybob
What if, in a few years, China accumulated enough financial assets that they could say to the US: interfere with our taking over China, and we will wreck your economy

Consider this scenario: they finance some looney named Osama into taking out the symbol of American finance, and incidently plunge the US into recession. They then quietly give aid and assistance to Sadaam, and get the US to spend $billions on taking him out. In the process, this annoys the Arab world enough to make them raise the price of oil to further damage the US economy.

Then we find ourselves having to deal with a nuke-armed North Korea, and spend more billions on that.

Meanwhile China converts all its dollars to euros, sending the value of the dollar into a tailspin

Finally, a Democrat is elected in 2004, with the US economy in a crash, and is given an offer she can't refuse: allow China to take Taiwan, and China will bail out the US economy. Refuse, and China will manipulate the US economy into a 1930's-style Depression

Checkmate

59 posted on 02/16/2003 12:26:04 PM PST by SauronOfMordor (To see the ultimate evil, visit the Democrat Party)
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To: SauronOfMordor
Lambs to the slaughter, my friend. You're still looking at light infantry washing ashore into well laid traps, modern tanks, and heavy artillery. The terrain of Taiwan does not favor the attacker in the least.

Even if the boats get them there, they will be able to take very little food or ammuntion. Once the fishing boats start congesting an area, coastal artillery, naval craft, and air power will break it up. It will be a large scale version of the Bay of Pigs.

60 posted on 02/16/2003 12:26:07 PM PST by Steel Wolf
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