Posted on 02/16/2003 8:58:45 AM PST by dmcg_98
Taiwan on alert against any Chinese invasion
2003-02-14 / Agence France-Presse / Defense Minister Tang Yiau-min (´öÂ`©ú) said yesterday the military had been put on a state of alert for fear China could take advantage of any war in Iraq to launch an invasion of the island.
Tang warned that Beijing's hostility towards Taipei was as strong as ever despite the unprecedented civilian flights between Taipei and Shanghai over the Lunar New Year holiday period.
"They have yet to give up their attempt to take over Taiwan by force. This was clearly stated by (President) Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) in the Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress documents," Tang told a press conference here.
China could decide to attack its arch rival when the world's attention was preoccupied with war in the Gulf.
"The Chinese communists could cash in on such an occasion," said Tang.
"They could sabotage and attack our banking systems, democracy and other social institutions which are superior to those on the mainland."
The defense ministry has also stepped up security and its monitoring of Chinese troop movements and improved its crisis management capability.
While ruling out any possibility of Taiwan's involvement in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, the minister said President Chen Shui-bian's (³¯¤ô«ó) government would provide humanitarian aid to refugees.
Tang also defended Chen's recent announcement in which he ruled out the possibility of direct cross-strait flights even after the resumption of air links with China following a half century hiatus.
Civilian planes would instead be required to fly on a detour for national security reasons even after direct cross-strait transport links are opened up, Chen insisted.
"The Taiwan Strait is a shield (for Taiwan). Wouldn't it be just what the Chinese communists wanted if the shield was removed?" Tang said.
Six Taiwan airlines operated a total of eight chartered flights to and from China for the first time during the Lunar New Year period from January 26 to February 10, but they had to transit Hong Kong or Macau.
Local business and industrial leaders have pushed for direct links between the Taiwan and China, insisting they would help lower shipping costs and facilitate economic ties across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese businesses are estimated to have invested some US$70 billion in China since 1987.
Commenting on China's growing missile threat, Tang said Taiwan had been working to build its missile shield.
"Research and development efforts have got underway to build a missile defense system. Hopefully the target could be arrived at within the next 10 years," he said, without going into details.
The flotilla would get troops scattered and lost, landing on different points of Taiwan with no chain of command, supplies, or idea of what to do. Trying to do over the horizon navigation at night in a fishing boat is just asking for trouble. They could possibly dump tens of thousands of troops ashore at different places, but that won't save them from the rapid, concerted counter attacks that they'll face from the Taiwanese army.
An amphibious attack of Taiwan would several times more complicated than Operation Overlord. If the best the PLA can come up with is the 'aquatic bum rush', they won't come at all.
The question is -- if the US fleet is neutralized - say by us being tied up in Iraq, and then having to respond to a N. Korean invasion - then can the PRC take out the ROC Air Force and Navy by themselves? I don't know the answer...and maybe that is not even the question. Maybe the real question is...does the PRC think they can do it?
The limited and total blockades are their best bets, but also their most vulnerable options. If they could choke out Taiwan for a month, wearing down their air and sea power, and hitting precisely with their medium range missiles, they could soften Taiwan up greatly. If they fail in either air or sea superiority, they'd be in trouble, and an invasion would likely fail.
The real problem with waiting that long is that the entire U.S. Navy could be parked off the coast of Taiwan by then. Even a handful of USN subs and surface ships could turn the tide decisively against the PLA. We are the wildcard in their planning.
I think their most likely course of action is a submarine blockade, backed by surface forces and air cover. Isolate Taiwan, and starve it into submission.
They want to take Taiwan intact if at all possible. The technology, expertise and wealth of Taiwan is exactly what Beijing wants for all of China. (They think they can do it without letting go of Party control, but that's another issue).
They would also rather blow Taiwan off the map than let them declare total independence. They still dance around this issue, but they fear that separatists in other parts of China would be emboldened by Taiwan's example. Taiwan has been baby stepping its way to independence for years, but the line has yet to be crossed.
Wouldn't we respond with a trade blockade against China? How weaked would China become from such an economic blockade?
Throwing the PLAN against the ROC Navy is a risky proposition. Asuming that their odds are 60 / 40, that's still a 40% chance that the government in Beijing will be embarassed and shamed. I can't stress to you enough how invincible the PLA is portrayed to be to the average Chinese on the street. The propaganda is impressive, and they are very proud of their military. The government would be devastated if they were defeated on the open seas by Taiwan. They won't risk looking foolish until the odds are much better, or they have no choice.
The bulk of China's sub fleet are their 50 odd Ming / Romea class subs. Ask a U.S. sumbariner how long it would take to clear them out, and the response would be on the order of 'all afternoon'. They also have a few Han / Kilo variants kicking around, also not much of a threat to the USN.
The way I see it developing would involve mining the ports. That is shortly followed by the announcement of the blockade. Very limited air strikes, but the PRC declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan.
They'd like to mine the ports, but that would require them being able to get up close. This won't happen until after a series of naval engagements that will be front page stuff all over the world. The air strikes will be mostly missile strikes at first, depending on how active Taiwan's missile defense system is at the time. The no-fly zone isn't going to fly until they suppress the Taiwanese air force, which the PLAAF can't do yet.
We'd have to convoy ships and start sweeping the ports. How many subs could we surge to the Taiwan Theater of Operations?
I'm not a Navy guy, so I don't know this one off the top of my head. The general consensus from Navy people I know is that the PLAN would be so much target practice, and that while they have a few neat toys, they are decades behind us in most categories. The U.S. Navy would be the least tied down in a conflict with both Iraq and North Korea, so they could easily field enough power to break a PRC blockade of Taiwan within a week. (Any squids lurking, feel free to opine here)
China has around 65 subs, if memory serves, and less than ten of them are 'modern'. They could do immense damage to Taiwanese shipping and naval traffic. They could also break apart and sink as soon as the USN shows up. The littoral areas around China are very shallow, which isn't good for playing submarine / destroyer cat and mouse if you're the mouse.
China needs a more serious plan than sending in the boat parade.
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