Washington/Batimore Heavy Snow Forecast...

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington ^ | February 14, 2003

[John H K]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 445 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SAT...

ROUND ONE OF THIS WEEKEND'S TWO PART WINTER STORM HITS TONIGHT THRU LATE SAT. ACROSS THE FAR N ZONES AND MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THRU THE PERIOD THAT ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE N SHEN VALLEY...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND DC AND S BALT AREAS...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN DAWN AND 8 AM. MID MORNING SAT...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...PRIMARILY RAIN IN EXPECTED WITH A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW SOMETIME SAT AFT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE N WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LOWEST IN THE S WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF MIX WILL OCCUR. RANGE FOR BOTH PERIODS...2 TO 6 INCHES.

MMARGRAF

LONG TERM (SAT NITE-FRI)

ETA/GFS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATL STATES. ETA CLOSES OFF A MID-LVL CENTER BY 06Z MON NEAR PITTSBURG WHILE GFS DOES NOT. PER QPFHSD WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA GIVEN IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM UKMET AND CANADIAN.

OCASSIONAL -SN EARLY SAT NITE WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WAA PATTERN STRENGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROF/HEIGHT FALLS. 12Z ETA SHOWING IMPRESSIVE WAA PATTERN ON SUN WITH STG H85 EASTERLY JET OF 50 KTS FEEDING ATL MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY JUICY AIR MASS. FCST PW FIELDS ARE OVR 0.8 INS OVR MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 1.0 IN OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ATMOS FROM TOP TO BOTTOM SUPPORTS MOSTLY SNOW ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SLEET COULD GET MIXED IN WITH THE SN BETWEEN 00Z SUN-06Z SUN OVR FAR SRN MD/SPOTSYLVANIA/CHO. ADDED IP TO THOSE AREAS TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

TEMPS ON SUN WILL HOVER AROUND 20 DEGS MOST OF THE DAY WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. GIVEN STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT (H85 50-KT JET)...STRONG 700-500 OMEGAS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND FVRBL LFQ JET DYNAMICS OF A 100-KT JET SUGGEST HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUN. EXTENDED PRECIP A LITTLE BIT LONGER INTO MIDDAY MON AS PER SLOWER TREND IN THE MODELS. ETA GIVING ALMOST 2.0 INS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH GFS ALMOST HALF OF THAT. BY THE TIME EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE MOST SIG SNOW EVENT IN THE WASHINGTON AREA SINCE EARLY JAN 1996. 10 INS OF SNOW WILL BE A VERY...VERY CONSERVATIVE SNOW TOTAL FOR THE AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...TRENDED TEMPS COLDER GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWPACK. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE NEXT FRI. LONG WAYS OUT FROM NOW KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.

ROSA

[backhoe]

Some places to go for weather, maps, etc.:

http://weather.iwon.com/index_static.html

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

http://www.weather.com/

[Adder]

Its a challenge to read the forecast discussions but also very enlightening because you get more of a sense of the meteorologists's thinking and not the weather babes with their perky pointing.
In any event, looks like DC-NY will get pretty well hammered. Stay warm, drink lots of buttered rum and be careful!
Wish we were getting some snow...we are just getting that stupid ice. Watta mess.

[jimtorr]

What kind of show depths is everyone seeing?

I went outside a short time ago, and it appeared that there was 5 - 6 inches of new snow, with heavy snow continuing.

[jimtorr]

Oh, I should have said that I'm in Columbia, MD, midway between Baltimore and D.C.

[Textide]

About mid-calf here (30mi NW of DC).

[muggs]

Wish we were getting some snow...we are just getting that stupid ice. Watta mess.

Same here in the Cincinnati area, 1/2" of ice and up to 6" of snow by Monday noon. Snow isn't to bad but this ice is the pits.

I hear my neighbor outside scraping ice off his car windows so he can go out. I'm getting cabin fever already but I think the neighbor is nutty for trying to go out now.

[leadpenny]

Here is a list of February Mid-Atlantic Snowstorms from Intellicast. The 1979 storm was called the President's Day Snowstorm. I had forgotten that, but we had 24 inches in Lake Ridge.

February in the Midatlantic

[muggs]

Now I feel guilty. I just heard another car outside in the apartment complex parking lot. A tenant called at 6AM this morning to let me know water was coming through her bathroom ceiling. I called the tenant above her apartment to see if he had any idea why. He overflowed the toilet. I was kind of annoyed because I had been awakened by the call so early. I asked if he had a plunger, when he said no, I told him not to flush the toilet again until he got a plunger. I asked him to come to the office during business hours today and we would supply him with a new plunger. I just saw him taking a plunger out of his jeep so I guess he went to the store.

[Elkiejg]

Hubby just told me all the airports in D.C. and Balto. are closed.

[tomkat]

we're inside the north edge of that dark blue spot in PA.
looks like it's gonna get deep, but the doggies love playin' in it ...

[mware]

I just checked the weather for my area. Hammonton, NJ is suppose to get 16.4 inches of snow. They predicted it to start at 1:00 PM this afternoon.

They got that one wrong, it is snowing like the dickens right now.

[Ligeia]

Thanks for the link. In thinking about it, that snowstorm must be the one where we and what seemed like half of northern Virginia took refuge in a restaurant in McLean then know as the Joshua Tree. Suburbanites leaving the district couldn't drive any further. We had to stay there for hours until VDOT had plowed the streets and we could get home. A man who worked for the "agency" as he called it joined us at our table. That was a storm!

[plinker's2sense]

Here in Southern MD (Solomons) we have about 2" ...but it keeps changing from freezing rain to snow.

[GopherIt]

And 8-9" in Silver Spring, and heavy. The kids are under strict orders not to have fun today, as my wife just cleaned the kitchen floor Friday.

[tomkat]

The kids are under strict orders not to have fun today ...

fofl !

[palmer]

9" today on top of the 6" from yesterday (75 miles W of DC)

[Unknown Freeper]

It's there already? I thought it wasn't supposed to start here (central Jersey) until tonight. That means it'll be coming up the turnpike. I thought I had a couple hours to get some errands done.

[jimtorr]

At 8:30 a.m. I went outside with a ruler and measured 6 - 7 inches of new snow since last night, and 10 - 11 inches of snow accumulation. It's about 12 degrees F., with a 10 mph N wind, making the chill factor around 0 F.

The heavy snow continues.

I was always told that it never snowed heavily when it was this cold, but I guess I was told wrong.

[Jimmy Valentine's brother]

Thought I'd take Jimmy Valentine's sister-in-law's 4 wheeler to get the paper about 0730 EST. Forget about it!. Bumper was ploughing snow.

[Semper911]

Bump for more reports from the MidAtlantic...