Lessons of Russia's Depopulation Disaster

NewsMax.com ^ | Thursday, Feb. 6, 2003 | Carl Limbacher and NewsMax.com Staff

[friendly]

If Russia's sharply declining birth rate is any indication, depopulation, and not an overabundance of humans straining Earth's resources, is the real threat humanity faces.

Russia, writes Dr. Herbert London, president of Hudson Institute and the John M. Olin Professor of Humanities at New York University, is providing a lesson for the world of the dangers of depopulation.

And the problem of depopulation isn't merely Russia's - the whole Western world is facing a crisis of declining populations. Canada's National Post columnist Mark Steyn recently wrote that Italy's population decline matches Russia's.

"Because the state needs a birth rate of 2.1 children to maintain a stable population," Steyn revealed. "In Italy, it's now 1.2. Twenty years ago, a million babies were born there each year. Now it's half a million. And the fewer babies you have today, the fewer babies are around to have babies in 20 years.

"Once you're as far down the death spiral as Italy is, it's hard to reverse. Most European races are going to be out of business in a couple more generations."

Noting the Wall Street Journal's prediction Jan. 24 that "The world's population could decline by nearly 500 million people by 2075," London wrote in the Hudson Institute’s American Outlook, "As notable as this statistic is, it pales in comparison to the demographic condition in Russia at the moment.

"The most recent predictions indicate a decline in the Russian population of twenty million people in the next decade due to an excessively low birthrate of 1.2 children per family (well below replacement level) and a rise in the death rate because of widespread alcoholism and the spread of disease.

"According to one Professor Antonov, 'Two thirds of Russian territory is settled now as sparsely as it was in the Neolithic Age: less than one person per square kilometer. In other words, east of the Urals, a demographic wasteland is superimposed on the geographic wasteland.'"

London blames "a dramatic decline in the desire for reproduction among the younger generation," explaining that "the prevalence of one-child families, the decline in the number of recorded marriages, the increase in cohabitation, and the rise in divorce are all symptoms of this condition."

London ascribes much of the problem to "the virtual breakdown of the traditional family." Another source, he warns, is an emerging belief "virtually unchallenged in social science that divorce and 'only-children families' are actually desirable conditions that must be protected. An undeclared war is being conducted against those who identify a crisis in the family and a resulting demographic implosion."

As a result of all of this, "if nothing dramatic occurs in Russia, to encourage larger families, the retreat from childbearing will continue and accelerate. Two children in a family will certainly no longer be the norm and, as a consequence, Russia could become a nation of only one hundred million in thirty years (it is about 149 million today)."

This sharp decline, London predicts, "could decide Russia's geopolitical fate. A decline of fifty million people could undermine the territorial integrity of that vast nation." The decline could also "undermine any effort to create industrial market capitalism, which depends on mass production and mass markets."

Accompanying the collapse of the family, London said, is a social atmosphere that produces "a revision in cultural perspectives has led to an unprecedented level of prestige bestowed on homosexual behavior as well as evidence of an increased rate of suicide."

Such conditions, he warned "not only threaten the familial foundation of civilization, but human self-preservation itself."

Russia, along with much of the West, "is in the midst of an historic revolution that is weakening the family, devaluing the role of children, and threatening depopulation ... It is no exaggeration to contend that Russia's future, and perhaps the fate of other nations, depends on the restoration of family- and child- centered lives. A relentless drive for consumer gratification and self-fulfillment have taken us down a path that threatens societal well being," he wrote.

Steyn's outlook is even gloomier, and he blames abortion as on of the prime causes of depopulation. "A society whose political class elevates 'a woman's right to choose' above 'go forth and multiply' is a society with a death wish," he wrote. And "today we're the endangered species, not the spotted owl. We're the dwindling resource, not the oil."

Steyn recommends: "Next time you're in a rundown diner and the 17-year-old waitress is eight months pregnant, don't tut "What a tragedy" and point her to the nearest Planned Parenthood clinic. Leave her a large tip instead. She's doing the right thing, not just for her, but for all of us."

[friendly]

Why is it that so often that the wonderful decent, good, people of America are infertile?

[Poohbah]

Why is it that so often that the wonderful decent, good, people of America are infertile?

Because they've bought in on the notion that they can only have one kid, or they get married too late, or they are both employed (two-income families tend to find the breadwinners too stressed to boink each other--which IS a precondition for having kidlets), et cetera, and so on, and so forth, and the beat goes on...

[Servant of the Nine]

Why is depopulation a disaster?
There is absolutely no need for more than a billion people. Land is finite. Less people makes more land available for the ones left.

So9

[Poohbah]

Why is depopulation a disaster?

You planning to kill yourself before you need assistance in your old age?

There is absolutely no need for more than a billion people.

Fine. Lead by example, good sir...

[AntiGuv]

Russia's population is dropping - as the article alludes - because in the post-Soviet era men in general feel they cannot afford a family, and are also managing to kill themselves off at a faster rate. It has very little connection or relevance to why birthrates are dropping in Western Europe & America.

[SamAdams76]

Here are two interesting charts. One shows the top 15 countries by population in 2002. The other chart shows the projected top 15 countries by population in 2050 - based on today's birth/death rate trends.

Note that India passes China as the most populous country while the United States stays at number three. Meanwhile, Russia nearly drops off the chart and Germany and France are nowhere to be found.

World’s Largest Countries in 2002

Rank	Country	Population (millions)
1	China	1,281
2	India	1,050
3	United States	287
4	Indonesia	217
5	Brazil	174
6	Russia	144
7	Pakistan	144
8	Bangladesh	134
9	Nigeria	130
10	Japan	127
11	Mexico	102
12	Germany	82
13	Philippines	80
14	Vietnam	80
15	Egypt	71

World’s Largest Countries in 2050

Rank	Country	Population (millions)
1	India	1,628
2	China	1,394
3	United States	413
4	Pakistan	332
5	Indonesia	316
6	Nigeria	304
7	Brazil	247
8	Bangladesh	205
9	Congo, Dem. Rep. of	182
10	Ethiopia	173
11	Mexico	151
12	Philippines	146
13	Vietnam	117
14	Egypt	115
15	Russia	102

[GovernmentShrinker]

True, but very rapid population decline does pose some serious problems (just as rapid population increase does).

[oyez]

According to Dr Paul Erlich depopulation would be a good thing.

[friendly]

Good points. And let us not forget the contribution of the vermin lawyer industry. American divorce is a journey to hell that utterly destroys lives, and has ruined the institution of marraige.

[friendly]

I note that europeans are pretty much on the road to voluntary extinction, a unique lemming like phenomenon in response to a grotesquely evil culture and mass media.

[StockAyatollah]

Too many people in China + Declining Russian population and excess Russian land = Chinese annexing some Russian land.

[Constantine XIII]

There are few things that p!$$ me off more than the "Down With People" movement. Grrr

[friendly]

NARAL and the abortion industry are proud of their work. Blood money is lucrative I guess.

[flushed with pride]

Paul Erlich is a socialist/leftist who has made a career out of being wrong. None of the predictions that he made twenty and thirty years ago have come true, yet he is still considered an 'expert' by die-hard liberals who continue to hang on his every word.

[FreedomCalls]

Too many people in China + Declining Russian population and excess Russian land = Chinese annexing some Russian land.

= room for more factories filling my Wal-Mart with $8.00 shirts and $11.00 blue jeans.

[Centurion2000]

bump .... looks like this just might be the asian century then.

[friendly]

Big families are needed (4-8 kids+). Bring back stay at home moms!! (Wish I had one)

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

Mexico doesn't move up? They'd be number three if the US wasn't on their northern border.

[Kenny Bunk]

Can't tell you how many times I have been laughed off this site for stating that Mexico's population is over 100 Million.

Please also notice that this is what they admit to. There's a damn good chance there are far more Mexicans than this ... in Mexico, that is.

[Kenny Bunk]

Archie I forgot to add that the 126 Million increase we pick up will be more than half Mexican!