Posted on 02/03/2003 8:19:13 AM PST by Howlin
NASA press conference today........in 15 minutes!
I will refute that type of post, as it is counterproductive.
Dittmore starts by making changes from yesterday on the timeline: 7:52 am. identified that 3 mainline temperature gauges showed a change in wheelwell in left side.
7:53...strut actuator temperature rose significantly. 30 - 40 degrees rise
7;59 west texas, there was evidence of drag on left side. The yaw jets on right side were firing to compensate for drag on left side right yaw jets had to kick in, and it did, but they couldn't keep up with drag.
32 seconds worth of data is still missing. retrieval of data is still a problem, we are still trying to retrieve it. To help with this, we will send engineers to The White Sands Terminal is where data is downloaded before it is forwarded to NASA. we are going there to try and retrieve additional data.
A temperature of 30- 40 degree rise in wheel area is not necessarily an indication of something going wrong with structure. A rise of 60 degrees in 5 minutes does not represent a major structural event. It's interesting information, but we are still trying to find out what caused it. Think about it, the outside temp was 2000 degrees, so a 60 degree change in temperature, by comparison, is not significant. I don't think this temperature rise necessacerily reflects the exact location of breach. If that were the case, the temperature would be much higher than that. He urges everyone to be cautious of speculation.
Tile analysis:
Time line, events, study, and we finally concurred it was not a problem.
17 Jan Meeting to review launch film.
First meetings occured on 20th.
Reported on 21st to the engineering teams, and trying to reflect on what the debris was...
debris assessment completed on 22
reported to mission management team on 24th and on 27th. Both conclusions were debris that impacted the vehicle, did not represent danger to the crew or equipment.
size of debris used in our assumptions was 2.67 pounds .Size was determined by 2 ways, estimate using film analysis. and utilized information from other launches. Crew photographs determined size and location, we determined size to be 20 by 16 by 6. Debris is coming toward the tank at a slight incident angle, not 90 degrees, so when it comes into the wing, we calculate how much energy it has. That depends on the size and mass. We varied weight, plus other factors, utilizing a program we have. The program is designed to predict penetration of any tile. This is a pecial program we've used many times to predict damage. We based our findings, compared it to actual events after other landings. The program over-predicts (worst cases), damage.
Completed analysis, understanding the worst case, we looked at two worst cases were, a single loss of a single tile near door, and loss of multiple tiles in a larger area.
Our model was predicting we could have damage to bottom of the wing, near the left wing door, (outboard from left door)
Loss of a single tile at the main landing door, our analysis predicted even if there was localized structural damage, it would not cause catastropohic event.
Dittmore made that so clear to understand, even for me...that they carefully studied the launch event, studied the film, and determined there was no danger. He seemed truely cognizant of the fact that the conclusion might eventually prove to be wrong.
Dittmore stops for questions:
CBSNEWS question: I didn't understand it. Answer: it doesn't seem logical that the wheelwell is the source of the problem. There is some other event, something we don't have, that caused the temperature increase.
Question:
Is there a re-entry technique to yaw and protect damaged wing?
Answer:
We have not seen any increase in skin temperature of the craft. (I think he meant none of the data they now have, shows anything but the wheelwell temperature rose.) I am not aware of any other technique that would have allowed more yaw on right side to compensate for drag on left side. I'm doubtful because, remember the temperature on the unused wing would become excessive.
Orlando sentinel: what are the two or three items most crucial to find?
Answer: Any debris upstream of primary impact area. We will be very interested to find any debris upstream of the primary impact area.
wing debris structure, tile, upstream of Fort Worth, (he specified) New mexico Ariz,..if that debris exist, it is extremely important to us.... it would provide a real key to the puzzle.
KINews Austin: Have you reviewed telemitry ? do you have way to measure or estimate of mass?
Answer: This is hilarious reading...but I did the best I could) 2.67 pounds plus velocity, is going to be converted to the energy that hit the wing, disentegrated into energy, in a cloud of dust, and what we are trying to understand is, What impact that energy, had on the tile. That's what our analysts tried to do during the flight.
There may have been local penetration (of the wing structure), but not to the degree that it would violate the structural integrity of the wing:
CNN : You're not comfortable with the notion that the event began in the wheel well, with the rise in temperature there. What are some of the other operating ideas that might explain what could have caused this event?
Answer; it's a mystery...conflicting information.... "some kind of thermal event going on"...but from where, we don't know. Just not plausible that it began in the wheelwell. So there must be something else, but we don't know what it is....here we re 48 hours from the event, and we are still struggling with the event.
If we can get our hands on the debris that holds the key, we will know exactly where each tile came from on the wing, each one is marked. we can map it and make it fit the scenario.. That missing link is out there.
AP: all those meetings between 20 and 27, how many engineers involved, did any of them express reservations to the conclusion that the mission was not in danger? Answer:
At the time, I was not aware of any reservations of anyone on our team. It's not uncommon for people to say, "but what if that's not right?" or something in their gut forces them to speak out. we encourage them to come forward and talk about it"....but I was not aware of anyone expressing that opinion. We have a system, a safety reporting system, mission wide...a person can identify their concerns, their thoughts, anonymously, and we react to it immediately.....we received no such information." I can't say there weren't people with reservations, among 17,000 people, that just doesn't happen, but if they had em, at least they wren't brought to my attention.
"But I am aware now that there have been some reservations expressed...we're reviewing...but they weren't part of our playbook at the time...they didn't come forward, even as "what ifs"....we are reviewing them now." HOuston Chronicle:
how did you eliminate the possibility that this was larger mass of ice that hit wing?
Dittomore says , "I don't know". We are completely redoing analysis from scratch. if we weren't conservative enough..if we made any mistakes...We have a team of engineers and managers who are working to understand the shedding of material from the tank.
We are making the assumption that the material from the tank caused the loss of the vehicle. A fairly drastic assumption, but we've asked everyone including contractors to ask that be our starting place.
USNews Where will reassembly take place? Barksdale?
Answer: I hope we find enough debris to reconstruct. Barksdale for the immediate future.
five questions from FL to follow, but I didn't capture them.
Hear Hear! The bickering has scarred the threads. Signal to noise ratio has plummeted. I chalk much of it to stress of the moment, but also sense that there was a great deal of latent tension. Hopefully the place will regain most, if not all, of the quality it had.
You know men are much better off when they can, in the face of setbacks and disasters, bash things. Since it's pretty hard to go down to Cape Canaveral and bash the launch pad, we'll settle for bashing management at NASA and the White House. Of course it is Congress that desperately needs bashing in this case and maybe we'll get around to that after we're done bashing the most convenient targets.
< /bash >
I'm all confused here; if we disagree with that, are we bickering? Are we just suppose to let them SAY that without it being refuted?
Howlin: I'm all confused here; if we disagree with that, are we bickering? Are we just suppose to let them SAY that without it being refuted?
I'll speak for myself (not that any of you have tried to put words in my mouth, I am just offering my opinion). I don't have an answer, but it is my sense that many of these threads contain exchanges that are hostile and repetitive. I suppose, given the subject, that is inevitable.
After a time, the facts (regarding the tragic loss of the crew of the Columbia, and the vessel too) will speak for themselves, and put a good number of "conclusion jumpers" in a bad light.
I totally agree with your sentiment regarding NASA bashing. I am impressed with Dittemore's and NASA's response so far. I believe NASA was careful with this. Even though their gut told them the orbitor tiles were okay, they studied the potential effect of liftoff strikes against the tiles. Then, after the loss, they admitted that perhaps their study was flawed, and that they were reviewing that. When a big organization like NASA is open with facts like that, I develop trust in their statements.
I have to admit, I have expressed difference of opinion with a few who were claiming NASA had been negligent (that is, I haven't followed my own advice to keep my mouth shut), then I figured it was a waste of my energy, and in many cases, only served to encourage the other side to post a response.
They *should* have known the craft was damaged, and they should have had means to find that out and done it quickly.
Now reflect upon the following information from the Press Conference today and give us what you think should have been done after they reached the conclusion that nothing was damaged and no danger to crew or equipment existed. Any answer you can provide would be appreciated.
Tile analysis:
Time line, events, study, and we finally concurred it was not a problem.17 Jan Meeting to review launch film.
First meetings occured on 20th.
Reported on 21st to the engineering teams, and trying to reflect on what the debris was...
debris assessment completed on 22
reported to mission management team on 24th and on 27th. Both conclusions were debris that impacted the vehicle, did not represent danger to the crew or equipment.
Hopefully, they will located the piece of the left wing that appeared to be struck by the object in the video image, just after launch. If this portion of the wing is found where the object struck the wing or at the point of impact, it may very well reveal evidence of substantial damage to that wing, and be directly attributed to the cause of the shuttle break up.
They need to find most of the pieces to the left wing. This may never happen, but if they do find most of the pieces to the left wing, this puzzle and the investigation into the cause may be solved.
It is my speculation that the left wing, if it was the cause, will be found further west than most of the debris field. The more pieces they find on the west side of the debris field will be much more revealing.
This is a very incomplete statement, but would take many pages to depict the situation.
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