What A New War in Korea Might Look Like

Globalsecurity ^ | John Pike

[Sabertooth]

[HumanaeVitae]

If the U.S. backs down on North Korea, every tin-pot dictator in the world will put the objective of obtaining a nuke on the front burner. 'That's the way you intimidate the Americans', they will rightly think.

We are entering some dangerous waters...thank God we've got competent people in command.

[headsonpikes]

DPRK, ROK, DMZ, SOF, ...I don't know

I'd say the North Koreans are about to be SOL.

[harpseal]

Clearly any use of weapons of mass destruction by the DPRK must be answered by the most devastating use of weapons of mass destruction possible in short tactical nukes to eliminate their army. We as a nation can not allow the Republic of Korea to be overrun by the insane regime of the DPRK.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

[Centurion2000]

Whatever part of the Rainbow plan covers Korea we need to have that option number 7 right at the top of the list. Anything less invites massive chaos in Western and civilized lands.

[Riley]

Bump.

[Dog Gone]

Let's lock and load. The UN reports that NK is moving prohibitted machine guns into the DMZ.

[gcruse]

There is nothing in the article pertaining to the nuclear mines that have been said to be deployed against a NK offensive. I wonder if that was all BS...?

[johnny7]

... might also try to conquer the entire peninsula...

They could do it in a week! ROK forces will fold and our people, 36,000... those who are left will be hostages.

They say we have 46,000 troops in Japan. Cannon fodder. They'll go in deaf, dumb and blind.

1950 all over again! Pusan perimeter at best.

The Chinee will back up her little buddy with whatever it needs.

Bush needs to strike and strike now. Send them a message... GET OUT OF DODGE!

[Uncle Miltie]

Amazing post, for which I thank you.

Does a casualty estimate come with this? It sounds like 2M casualties, 500K+ dead to me. And that before considering a nuke exchange.

JHFC. This is nasty stuff.

[Uncle Miltie]

From the same web-site:
---------------
Korea Crisis Countdown Timeline

The timing of possible military action by the United States against North Korea is highly uncertain. The most obvious forcing function would be a decision by North Korea to begin reprocessing spent fuel to extract more plutonium to fabricate additional nuclear weapons. If the North began reproccessing in January 2003, the United States would be faced with the possibility of military action against North Korean nuclear facilities prior to mid-year.

[arielb]

this time the chinese aren't so crazy about north korea and rememember that the soviets were flying their planes for them during the korean war.

[cpdiii]

Bush does not need to strike now. He needs to keep our forces on a hair trigger and use tactical nukes just over the DMZ when and if they cross it. In addition he would need to hit all areas in North Korea with tactical or strategic nukes that hold weapons of mass destruction.

Once air superiority is established (about 10 minutes after their bases glow in the dark) puff the magic dragon will kill all those whom do not surrender.

If we are not prepared to answer them with "what ever it takes" we may see the slaughter of many Americans and South Koreans. Our president will not let this happen.

[mhking]

Bump for later study.

[Outlaw76]

Interesting post but I think this analysis might be a little dated.

The proposition of moving large numbers of troops and artillery over any stretch of ground without overwhelming air power is no longer a feasible approach. Defense in this day and time will be far less costly than offense in terms of resources and numbers. Unlike the last war in Korea, South Korean troops and a very large contingent of US troops are all ready present. Air power from within South Korea and externally in Japan and Okinawa is ready and mobile.

Without the heavy use of WMD's North Korea would stand no chance at all of success and the field of battle would be little more than a place to relive some of the population stress in North Korea.

If they use WMD's North Korea would be destroyed and China would turn her back completely. Pyongyang (sp?), Nampo, Sunchon, and Wonson and others in that region would be smoldering ruins in the first 48 hours we would begin to drive the peasants north and cut off what meager supplies there military has. Within three weeks there would be mass starvation in the southern part North Korea and the number of white flags will make you think we were fighting the French.

China will call for the peace treaty quickly due to an extreme refugee problem.

It’s not even our amazing technology that would bring it about, but darn near 50 years of planning, digging in learning the turf. Last time we didn’t know the terrain, we didn’t understand the tactics, we didn’t have time to prepare and we didn’t have the resources at hand. Last time we played games with who what and where we could attack, what hills we could hold etc… to appease the politicians of the day. A lot has changed in that time period. Still, lets hope it doesn’t come to it, many lives will be lost if it does - on both sides of the border.

[KevinDavis]

Also we find those people who defected to North Korea and give them the proper treatment.

[ASOC]

Hummmm, or not.
I dare say the US Marines from OKI would not be the cannon fodder.
The (first) use of nukes would most certainly raise the stakes in the US V China game. Maybe some of those "baby" neutron devices employed would make the difference.
But only after the FAE worked over the N Koreans. Limited access routes favor air power, and that we have in spades.
China may be as nervous about Kim and crew with atomic bombs as we are...they now have a lot more to lose.

Hoo-ah

[Steel Wolf]

Does a casualty estimate come with this? It sounds like 2M casualties, 500K+ dead to me. And that before considering a nuke exchange.

That is not unreasonable. Many of the casualties would be from civilians, as the infrastructure of both contries would collapse, causing massive humanitarian problems.

Informally, the U.S. military units there refer to themselves as 'speedbumps'. Sitting within range of the biggest line of artillery in history, many expect to be totally wiped out, cut off, or captured within the first 24-36 hours. This isn't to say that we or the ROKs are pussycats, but that the initial shock of 10,000 tubes firing several times a minute for hours on end will shock the South badly, clogging the roads with literally millions of refugees. That puts a hurting on logistics, which is our soft underbelly.