Losing in Louisiana -- Mary Landrieu's Last Stand

[No dems 2002]

Senator Landrieu is making her last stand in the Louisiana. She’s as ornery as ever, fraught with claims that Terrell and the GOP are picking on her, and even guilty of “bold-faced lies”. “You’ve hurt me and my family,” she whines. Yeah, well, I guess the truth hurts sometimes, doesn’t it? Terrell calls you pro-abortion, and so you are by voting against attempts to restrict it in the military and in other ways. Just by voting in favour of the partial birth abortion ban doesn’t make you pro-life, as is often argued at the national level. Mrs. Terrell says that you voted against the Boy Scouts and so you did, along will all of your other pro-homosexual votes.

Senator Landrieu has found herself fighting the prevailing winds, and in the very undesirable position of being on the defensive against a very organised and vocal conservative campaign. But she set herself up for this. Why didn’t she think twice before voting like a liberal on most social issues? Why didn’t she follow the wiser, more seasoned approach of her colleague John Breaux? Increasingly, Landrieu is finding herself looking like a near Xerox copy of the now-ousted Max Cleland of Georgia. Consider the comparisons: both have liberal voting records in the Senate, both are first-term senators, both were elected in 1996 by very narrow margins (depending on big black turnout, and both received 46% of the vote on election day. For Cleland, that meant immediate defeat. For Landrieu, it meant defeat in the first round, and her second round isn’t looking too pretty. Have a look at the statistics.

The Democratic Party is heading south in the South. No doubt about it, though some states have gone Republican quicker than others, the trend is there in the whole region. Superficially, though, Louisiana has appeared to remain more democratic-leaning. I mean, after all, the state legislature is overwhelmingly democratic-controlled, and democrats far outnumber the GOP in party registration. What’s more, as democrats giddily point out, the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the US Senate since Reconstruction.

“Historical trends” like these are easily changed, however, as we saw in Georgia’s gubernatorial race a month ago. Loath as they are to admit it, the democrats have been experiencing the gradual decline in Louisiana that they have in other states. The trend is unmistakable. For instance: a Republican governor (re-elected in 1999 with 62% of the vote), a GOP Secretary of State, and, very significantly a Republican majority of 5-2 in the state’s congressional delegation. In fact, in this past election, Republican candidates collectively received 61.4% of Louisiana’s US Congressional vote (and 51% of the US Senate vote to Landrieu’s 46%). Add the fact that President Bush won the state 53%-45% in 2000, and you get my picture even more clearly.

Though this won’t surprise you, democrats experience the exact same problem that they have in other Deep Southern states: a conservative white electorate (which constitutes a clear majority) and a sizable black electorate which will generally vote for anybody with a “D” in front of their name. The only problem is that the blacks have to turn out in sufficient numbers or the democrats can’t have a good chance of winning. But they also need enough white votes, too, who are deeply suspicious of the democrats’ pandering to minorities for votes.

And now we all wait for the final round in Louisiana. I’ll put my neck out on this one and predict a Terrell victory. She makes so much more sense. She really tells us what she stands for. It’s so refreshing to hear someone who’s so vocal in their conservative views on abortion. In short, she stands for something.

Isn’t it ironic that this is Mary Landrieu’s last stand, and she doesn’t seem to stand for anything?

[Fred Mertz]

Bump!

[No dems 2002]

"Sounds like Terrell is running as a solid social conservative. Makes me realize what a rare thing that is these days (in politics)."

Maybe it will get a trend going in the right direction, as more and more Republicans in the South and other areas realise they don't need to suppress their conservative views to get elected.

[Theodore R.]

I think Craig Crawford is a FL native and has run for office in FL -- as a Democrat. The LA native that you are thinking about is Charles Cook, who was born and/or grew up in Shreveport.

[Theodore R.]

Probably Terrell has not raised the confirmation of Judge Shedd because hardly anyone in LA knows about his case.