Posted on 11/18/2002 6:23:24 PM PST by Mark Felton
November 18, 2002
Target: Tom Tancredo
Some Say GOPPrimary Challenge Likely
By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.
Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.
The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.
Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.
Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."
Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.
Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.
"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.
Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.
While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.
"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.
Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.
Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.
Armstrong, meanwhile, has offered some kind words about Coffman.
"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."
Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.
Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.
Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.
"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."
Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.
Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.
"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."
Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.
"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.
It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.
But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.
With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.
The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.
After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.
It's really hard to come out with the truth nowadays.
One of these days, the President is going to realize that he succeeds despite Rove, not because of him; and then there will be nothing left for Karl but to join Dick Morris on the talk show circuit. That should also be amuising.
William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site
When Tancredo says illegals, he's really saying Mexicans. I know it, you know it, and they know it.
Theres no sense in lying about it to yourself.
Tom wouldn't be calling the INS on the Swedish Bikini team now, would he?
Bush and the GOP will solve the border and illegal problem in a way that allows us to maintain our percentage of the legal hispanic vote.
Guys like Tancredo, unless reigned in, will have the legal hispanics in this country voting 95% Democrat like the blacks in no time.
[President Bush is not for illegal immigration. I am not for illegal immigration.]
Sorry we disagree on this. How can he not be either he is in favor or if he is not - he is totally helpless and someone else is pulling the strings - I don't feel good about either scenario.
[ You confuse the issue when you interchange, as you do above, the term immigrant and illegal immigrant. When one does that it does lead one to suspect an element of racism.]
Now you may see a hair's difference between saying someone's post 'leads one to suspect an element of RACISM and calling someone a RACIST - frankly I don't and do not believe you intended it otherwise.
Now we can go on forever with this and pick it apart word for word - but if so, we need to take it to email because we are taking up space saying the same thing, over and over.
Some freepers consider that a compliment, not an insult.
But I shan't waste my time discussing this with the likes of you.
I had a feeling you had no answer for my questions...
The only way of getting anything done is to speak out on it. When ANY politician tries to do that, they're immediately branded a racist. It's a no win situation.
Tancredo has decided to take the hits because saying nothing means nothing will be done for sure. I applaud his courage.
...pollster Ciruli said 'Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
Maybe that's because the vast majority of illegals are from Mexico. If we had 10 million illegal aliens from Ireland, then when we talked about illegal immigration we'd be talking about the Irish wouldn't we?
You can start by passing a federal law that requires all persons prove citizenship to obtain a drivers license.
Thats the law now in Florida and it should be so in all of the states.
Persons caught without valid licenses must be reported to INS for possible deportation
Next you do the same with public school, medical care and social services.
Then you up the penalty for hiring an illegal to a felony punishble by a $10,000 fine and jail time.
All this can and will be done over time, and all without screaming out about how the dirty Mexicans should be kicked out of the country.
We simply disagree that it is the duty of the federal government to protect the borders from invasion. No need for insults.
Then allow me. Anyone who does not see that it is the duty of the federal government to protect our borders, is in fact no better than a Bolshevik when it comes to this issue. Any president who does not uphold his Constitutional duty to defend this country and its borders, either actively (by legalizing illegal invaders) or by inaction (by not enforcing our immigration laws and by not guarding our borders), is in fact no better than a Bolshevik when it comes to this issue.
By the time most people wake up to the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose con game which is being played on them by the two establishment parties, it will be too late for "calm, reasonable" solutions to the problem.
That's the whole point of why Tancredo is speaking out. It just looks to me like the same thing that was done to Buchanan is now being attempted on him. How will the problem ever get solved like this?
Those 2 years were time enough for him and Ziglar to make the illegal immigration problem worse.
You're asking us to cut Bush too much slack.
125 years ago people were talking about the Irish, who seem to have assimilated rather nicely.
To talk about illegals and to solve the problem is absolutely necessary.
It will be done by the GOP in a fashion which doesn't allow the leftist democrats and communist La Raza types to demogouge the issue with cries of "racist".
Tancredo is the last guy we need as poster child for immigration reform.
Certainly the Republicans don't care what we think about illegal immigration. It goes on and on, and on.
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