Posted on 11/18/2002 6:23:24 PM PST by Mark Felton
November 18, 2002
Target: Tom Tancredo
Some Say GOPPrimary Challenge Likely
By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.
Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.
The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.
Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.
Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."
Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.
Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.
"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.
Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.
While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.
"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.
Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.
Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.
Armstrong, meanwhile, has offered some kind words about Coffman.
"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."
Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.
Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.
Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.
"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."
Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.
Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.
"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."
Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.
"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.
It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.
But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.
With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.
The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.
After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.
Everything George Bush has proposed allows all illegal aliens to remain in this country and eventually become citizens.
It doesn't matter what the RINOs call it, it's still AMNESTY!!!
Show me one line of Bush-bull where he says anything about deportation.
Give us a link.
Show me one instance where he warns illegal aliens to stop crossing the borders.
Give us a link.
Look who's talking. Go re-read some of your memoirs. You lie and brag about it.
But hey, they were just Costa Ricans you were lying to. No big deal.
Like lying to a room full of people about having a wife and kids that you just can't wait to have see their beautiful country?
You're really full of the 'holier than thou' bullcrap today, aren't you?
How about...Hillary, Luis Gonzalez?
How about...Bill Clinton, Luis Gonzalez? Bill would probably go in for a little of that 'Flamboyan' action you're into, too.
How about...Castro, Luis Gonzalez?
Luis, you don't even live in a glass house, it's more like Saran wrap.
Our military is being used to protect the border in Korea and Saudi Arabia. It is being used, with NATO, to keep Kosovo "safe" for Muslim terrorists at the expense of the rightful owners, the Serbs.
The job of the military is to kill people and break things, not to be policemen or humanitarian workers. Which branch do you consider appropriate? Army - Air Force - Navy - Marines?
The job of the military is to protect our country. What part of invasion don't you understand?
The treatment of Representative Tancredo is just outrageous. At least the voices of sanity (save the nation, stabilize the population) are getting good publicity on talk TV. Maybe there's finally enough awareness for a third party to put it together.
Go visit the TSA website. They brag about their hiring quotas.
Sorry, my friend... redefining words doesn't make it. This is not an "invasion" anymore than being pro-abortion is pro-choice. There is no "enemy" here for our tanks/planes/ships to oppose. The situation is simply people being attracted to our way of life, and to the goodies they can achieve here. This is NOT a job for the Army/Navy/AirForce/Marines and no amount of saying so will make it so.
By the way, I do NOT support the use of our troops as policemen in Bosnia, etc. That, too, ought not be their job... but that is a 'Toon-ism... which he said (lied) would have been long ago complete.
As I said, I would support a Border Patrol with teeth and a solid mandate to protect us from illegal immigration along with deporting those illegals here, but using the present miitary forces is the wrong approach, no matter what Bill Reilly thinks.
Especially, a lying, Cuban, used car salesman. Just ask the Costa Ricans.
LOL!
If they won't support Tancredo we will, and we should do it by witholding the funds earmarked for the general party.
They'd better get out and meet the people, and soon.
Spare me your womanish hysteria. You stated that President Bush was personally for the destruction of the American way of life and our culture and I said that was utter and complete nonsense, so you rant and rave the above in response.
We have military who are well-trained and effective at defending borders. Let them come home and do what they're trained to do. It would be the most expedient way to deal with the situation.
Why shouldn't the border patrol be part of the military? Homeland Security and all that.
Have you looked at the new USEPA "Stormwater" fee (tax) on your property tax bill?
The government and Presidente Bush both know there is more than one way to skin the dumbdown public.
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