Posted on 11/07/2002 4:19:30 PM PST by Coleus
WHY FORRESTER LOST - AND LOST BADLY…
Rick Shaftan
Liberal “experts” attempt to alibi Doug Forrester’s humiliating defeat saying it was because he was “too” conservative even though across the nation, conservatives like Norm Coleman, Jim Talent, Saxby Chambliss, Wayne Allard and of course Scott Garrett won unexpected or larger than expected victories.
Forrester lost badly because he never connected with New Jersey’s largest group of swing voters - “Reagan Democrats” - conservative Catholics who live along Routes 3, 17, 46 and the Parkway. And Republicans will continue to lose as long as they believe that being pro-abortion is the only way to win these voters.
Instead, judging by the campaigns and candidates Republicans have nominated over the past decade, one would think that the “swing” voter in New Jersey is a liberal woman whose can trace her ancestry to the Mayflower. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
No Republican has won a vote majority in this state since George Bush got 55 percent against Michael Dukakis in 1988. And in that time, conservative Catholic towns like Secaucus, Bloomfield, Lyndhurst and Clifton have gone from producing 3-2 Republican majorities in statewide elections to 3-2 Democratic majorities.
Now if you listen to the “experts” who have blown election after election in this state, you would think that the way to bring back Republican victories in these towns is for Republicans to move even farther to the left. To the contrary, for Republicans to win in politically marginal areas like New Jersey, they must move back to the conservative base, embrace conservative issues - not run from them - and energize the base. Consider this.
1. While Republicans around the country were making the case for GOP Senate control by attacking liberal judges, Doug Forrester actually said he would vote against conservative judges supported by President Bush - and never once attacked Lautenberg for supporting a host of leftist jurists, including those who took “under God” out of the Pledge of Allegiance.
2. Republican Party bosses and academic “experts” like David Rebovich say that conservative pro-Life voters “have no place to go” and therefore can be ignored by Republicans. But many pro-Life voters are Democrats (ditto for gun owners). Forrester, ignoring reality, got into a well-publicized spat with New Jersey Right to Life and saw his lead among pro-Life voters drop from 56-32 to 46-38 in two weeks, without any increase among pro-abortion voters. No Republican should win less than 80 percent of the pro-Life vote. If Forrester had won 80 percent of the pro-Life vote, he would be Senator-Elect today.
3. No one has yet explained how “right-wing extremist” Scott Garrett won a higher percentage than Forrester in the allegedly “socially moderate” 5th Congressional District. And don’t look for the answer in the press or from Dr. Rebovich, who always seems to be wrong - they’re still in shock.
4. Inexplicably, Forrester not once referred to Lautenberg as a liberal (neither did Haytaian in 1994 - another losing race in spite of a massive national GOP trend), even though the former and future Senator had among the highest liberal ratings in the Senate - always in the 95-100 percent range. Polling indicates that conservatives outnumber liberals in New Jersey by 2-1. But the Forrester campaign seems to have foolishly believed those numbers were reversed and that they, in fact, were really running in Greenwich Village.
5. Our polling in a variety of towns indicated a carefully targeted Democratic campaign to identify Forrester as a “right-wing conservative” among liberals. Forrester’s defensive response was to tell conservatives that he was in fact a liberal, rather than to tell conservatives that Lautenberg was one. If you’re going to be attacked as a conservative, you might as well get the upside. And that didn’t happen because Forrester was more afraid of being attacked than energizing the conservative Republican base that, outside of the 5th CD, stayed home.
6. Forrester was the only Senate candidate targeted for defeat by Sarah Brady who lost - coincidentally also the only one who never filled out an NRA questionnaire and therefore was not on the little orange postcard that the NRA sent out in other states (or the one sent promoting Scott Garrett).
7. Forrester focused his message on “integrity” (whatever that means - we are dealing with politicians here) and the “debate on debates.” By highlighting Lautenberg’s supposedly being afraid to debate they only lowered expectations. When Lautenberg held his own (all he had to do was not drool on TV) Forrester lost any remaining rationale for his candidacy.
8. The centerpiece of the post-Torricelli campaign was an endorsement by “Uncle Tom” Kean, who has not endorsed a winning candidate in a competitive race since 1985 (unless you count Bill Clinton in 1996 or Rush Holt in 1998). The Forrester campaign should have looked at Kean’s record back in 1987 at the height of his “popularity” when he endorsed 10 GOP State Senate candidates in tight races and all 10 lost (he also “un-endorsed” 3 GOP Senators, all of whom won).
Republicans continue to lose because of the leftward drift, not in spite of it. And an even bigger problem is the perception that the party is anti-Catholic. Running “Republicans” who continue to emphasize how pro-abortion they are doesn’t help. Even non-pro-Life Catholics perceive “pro-choice” Republicans as having latent anti-Catholic prejudices. The election returns back that up.
It’s been 30 years since Republicans ran a Roman Catholic in a state that is majority Catholic - that’s just dumb. And the drop in GOP percentages is not just a New Jersey problem - with “pro-choice Republicans” at the helm, Republicans have taken a major nosedive in Catholic suburbs from Boston to St. Paul in the last decade. And this will continue as long as the party is controlled by a small group of elitist rich (and of course non-Catholic) liberals who fit the stereotype of what Democrats say Republicans are.
With another great Republican election night passing New Jersey by, maybe it is time for New Jersey Republicans to follow the rest of the nation’s lead rather than defy it and move back to the right. Again and again we are told that some liberal “Republican” is the new Golden Boy, only to see them lose on Election Day. It’s time for a change and the first step should be a total housecleaning at the Republican State Committee, starting with Joe Kyrillos.
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Rick Shaftan (who is not Catholic) is a political consultant for “conservatives with the guts to win.” The president of Neighborhood Research, a polling company and Mountaintop Media, which produces TV, radio and direct mail, his clients were 12-0 on Tuesday, with one race still in doubt. Among his successful clients this year were conservative Democrat Russ Pitman, who defeated 20-year liberal Republican incumbent Len Kaiser for North Arlington Mayor, conservative freshman Virginia Republican State Senator Ken Cuccinelli, and the Coalition Against the Tax Referendum which defeated a proposed Northern Virginia Sales Tax increase by a 55-45 margin.
That would cut off at the knees all possible efforts to get state courts to do that in the future. Unfortunately, the remedy that the US SC can apply after the election is only to declare that Lautenberg was an illegal candidate. Under Article I, only the Senate has the power not to seat Lautenberg.
Congressman Billybob
November 11, 2002
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Rep. Tom Davis deserves plaudits as the superb congressional campaign chairman who led Republicans to midterm gains, but he might ponder one serious mistake. Davis advised candidates to avoid Social Security. In fact, Republicans who ignored him prospered last Tuesday.
Victories by candidates who vigorously endorsed individual private retirement accounts shattered a tenet of American political folklore: Social Security is the third rail for Republicans; touch it, and you will die. This year, almost all brave enough to touch it survived. Some who did not were losers, raising suspicion that they should have taken the risk.
The issue did not herd panicky Social Security recipients into the Democratic pen. A Public Opinion Strategies study shows a 12-percentage point Republican advantage among senior citizens Tuesday. But will a Republican White House inclined toward caution about radical domestic proposals truly embrace the issue? Conservative activists attending a closed-door meeting Wednesday morning were stunned to hear Bush policy aide Barry Jackson spend 15 minutes extolling Social Security reform, and this is not a White House whose staffers free-lance.
The third rail's failure to work did not result from lack of Democratic trying. Cookie-cutter campaigns were waged coast-to-coast, accusing Republicans of threatening elders with reckless schemes. Nobody was more aggressive than Jack Conway, a telegenic young hope of Kentucky Democrats seeking to unseat three-term Republican Rep. Anne Northup in Louisville's traditionally Democratic 3rd District (carried comfortably by Al Gore against George W. Bush). Northup was made a prime Democratic target nationally.
At one senior citizens rally, Conway displayed a chart showing slumping stock prices and asked: ''Would you like your privatized Social Security investment account to look this?'' Northup did not take Tom Davis' advice and retreat, while Conway betrayed the inexperience of a 33-year-old by admitting the alternative to private accounts. ''We're going to have to look at the retirement age,'' Conway said. ''We're going to have to look at benefit levels.'' He later took those options off the table, but it was too late.
Rep. Pat Toomey, a leader in pressing for private accounts, increased his victory margin in his Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania district. Representatives Clay Shaw of Florida and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, who in 2000 narrowly won districts containing lots of pensioners, each reached 60 percent Tuesday after campaigning for private accounts. That was the position of 40-year-old corporate CEO Chris Chocola, who upset a seasoned Democratic campaigner attacking him on Social Security, former Rep. Jill Long Thompson, in traditionally Democratic South Bend, Ind. Another reformer, John Kline, defeated Democratic Rep. Bill Luther on his third try in Minnesota.
Bush's private investment plan was backed by winners of key races that recaptured the Senate for Republicans: Lindsey Graham in South Carolina; Norm Coleman in Minnesota; Saxby Chambliss in Georgia; John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, and, especially, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. Erskine Bowles, Bill Clinton's White House chief of staff, hammered Dole on Social Security. She responded by exhibiting a blank piece of paper labeled: ''Bowles Social Security Plan.'' The only losing Republican reformist was Sen. Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas, and he suffered from family values rather than retirement issues.
Not all Republicans were steadfast. Jim Talent backed away in Missouri and barely won his Senate seat. South Dakota's Republican candidates in close races--Gov. Bill Janklow for the House and Rep. John Thune for the Senate--retreated. Janklow won handily while Thune lost narrowly. Ten-term Rep. George Gekas of Pennsylvania came out against private accounts and was the only Republican loser in the four Republican vs. Democrat pairings of two incumbents caused by redistricting.
The object lesson came in New Jersey, where neophyte Republican Senate candidate Doug Forrester was pounded for wanting to ''privatize'' Social Security. He responded by pledging never to touch the system, and then lost badly to old-fashioned liberal Frank Lautenberg.
House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt and his House campaign chairman, Rep. Nita Lowey, had publicly declared the 2002 election a ''referendum on Social Security.'' The verdict was delivered Wednesday by the moderate Democratic Leadership Council, which pointed out the futility of ''attacking Republicans on Social Security'' as a ''silver bullet'' and losing four straight elections.
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE-PAC
For Immediate Release November 11, 2002
Contact: Marie Tasy, Director of Public & Legislative Affairs
(732) 846-2000
WAKE-UP CALL FOR NJ GOP: TIME FOR A CHANGE
NJ GOP bucks national trend: Pro-abortion U. S. Senate candidate Doug Forrester loses by 10 points while NJ voters overwhelmingly elect 5 out of 6 Republican Pro-Life Congressional Representatives
Once again, the NJ GOP is out of step with the rest of the nation. While many states picked up Republican U.S. Senate seats and gubernatorial victories, NJ's Republican Party once again failed to ride a national GOP wave to victory when former Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg soundly defeated NJ’s Republican U. S. Senate candidate Doug Forrester.
“How many more elections are NJ Republican leaders willing to lose with their failed strategy of alienating the GOP's huge Pro-Life base?” asked NJRTL-PAC Public & Legislative Affairs Director Marie Tasy.
Tasy noted that since the election, Forrester has been roundly criticized by the same pro-abortion Republicans who proudly ‘stood by their man’ until the polls closed and the votes were counted.” “Before the disastrous loss, not one word of dissent was uttered by any Republican pro-abortion group or individual indicating displeasure with Forrester’s abortion position.” “Since November 5th, pro-abortion Republicans including Christie Whitman, Hazel Gluck, Roger Bodman, and the fringe pro-abortion group who endorsed Forrester (the Republican Pro-Choice Coalition) have all done a complete about-face and are now whining that Forrester lost because he was not pro-abortion enough. That’s just intellectually dishonest,” said Tasy. “It’s obvious that this faction is in damage control mode and will go to any length to perpetuate their self-serving agenda, even if it means continued losses for the NJ GOP.” Tasy said that some have even gone so far as to erroneously imply that pro-abortion Republicans fare better in statewide races than conservative Republicans. “If the assertion that only pro-abortion republicans can win statewide were correct, Forrester would have beaten Frank Lautenberg, Bob Franks would have beaten Jon Corzine in 2000, and Dick Zimmer would have beaten Bob Torricelli in 1996. The last time I checked, none of these men held a seat in the U. S. Senate,” noted Tasy.
In fact, an analysis of the last 3 NJ U. S. Senate races show the following: In 1996, pro-abortion Democrat Bob Torricelli beat pro-abortion Republican Dick Zimmer by 291,803 votes; in 2000, pro-abortion Democrat Jon Corzine beat pro-abortion Republican Bob Franks by approximately 90,000 votes; and in 2002, pro-abortion Republican Frank Lautenberg beat pro-abortion Republican Doug Forrester by 201,914 votes.
An interesting footnote not to be overlooked is that during the 2001 gubernatorial race, Pro-Life Republican Bret Schundler actually garnered several thousand more total votes than U. S. Senate Candidate Doug Forrester one year later.
“NJRTL-PAC is deeply gratified that of the 6 Republicans in the NJ congressional delegation, 5 are supported by NJRTL-PAC and can be counted on to support President Bush’s agenda,” said Tasy. “They are Frank LoBiondo, Jim Saxton, Chris Smith, Mike Ferguson and Congressman-elect Scott Garrett, the only Pro-Life Republican running in Bergen County and the only Republican to win a race in Bergen County.”
“Additionally, 4 of the 5 Republican U.S. Senate candidates who received financial support from NJRTL-PAC won on November 5th. They are Wayne Allard (R-CO), Norm Coleman (R-MN), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Jim Talent (R-MO). NJRTL-PAC also financially supported John Thune from South Dakota, who is now facing a recount because of the closeness of the final election results.”
Along with Forrester, the Republican Pro-Choice Coalition supported other big losers in NJ on November 5th. While Pro-Life Republican Assemblyman Scott Garrett easily won a landslide victory in the 5th Congressional district, pro-abortion Republican Buster Soaries lost by 20 points in what some say should have been a GOP pick-up. Also, pro-abortion Republican activist Candace Straight lost by an embarrassing margin in the Essex County Executive race.
“As the NJ legislative races draw closer and GOP leaders focus on retaking the State Senate majority, it is important for the NJ GOP to abandon the failed formulas and bad advice of the past,” contended Tasy. “The NJ GOP must give Pro-Life voters a reason to pull the lever for Republicans,” she said. “The Pro-Life vote can no longer be taken for granted; just ask Senators Zimmer, Franks, and Forrester.” “Hopefully, the NJ Republican Party will learn its lesson. If not, there will be even more disastrous election nights in the future for the NJ GOP.”
Anti-Gun Agenda Cost Candidates their Seats in the House and Senate
A Key Factor on Election Day
Socialsecurity.org
Who Won?
That's what Democrats WANT Republicans to be: A little coterie of inneffectual WASPish liberals that no one votes for.
That's becuase it was Northern Sussex. Union, Morris, Essex Hudson, and Bergen counties are filled with wishy-washy soccer moms who vote for whom they think looks better on TV. Hudson and Essex counties are also replete with stupid Democrats who vote for whomever the nasty union man with no neck tells them to vote for.
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