RCP Predictions: Republicans will take the Senate +2

RCP ^

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

Current RCP Predictions on Key 2002 Senate Races

Arkansas	Pryor (D) 53% - Hutchinson (R) 47%.	DEM +1
Colorado	Allard (R) 49% - Strickland (R) 48%	GOP Hold
Georgia	Chambliss (R) 49% - Cleland (D) 49%	GOP +1
Iowa	Harkin (D) 54% - Ganske (R) 46%	DEM Hold
Louisiana	Landrieu (D) 46%	Runoff
Minnesota	Coleman (R) 51% - Mondale (D) 47%	GOP +1
Missouri	Talent (R) 51% - Carnahan (D) 48%	GOP +1
New Hampshire	Shaheen (D) 49% - Sununu (R) 48%	DEM +1
New Jersey	Lautenberg (D) 51% - Forrester (R) 47%	DEM Hold
North Carolina	Dole (R) 51% - Bowles(D) 47%	GOP Hold
South Carolina	Graham (R) 56% - Sanders 43%	GOP Hold
South Dakota	Thune (R) 50% - Johnson (D) 50%	GOP +1
Texas	Cornyn (R) 50% - Kirk (D) 48%	GOP Hold
	Total Net Gain (Not Counting Louisiana Runoff)	GOP +2

[Tennessean4Bush]

Why the freak are they undecided?!! Give me a break! The stakes are so freaking high!

[JZoback]

Why the freak are they undecided?!!

Either they think their vote does not count or they choose their candidates by which anti-depressant drug they take in the morning

[PhiKapMom]

I opt for the media is lying based on what I have seen and heard!

[Tennessean4Bush]

I read the NH race just a bit differently than others. Sununu is more like the challenger. Shaheen is a sitting governor unable to get over 50%. She is like an incumbent. I really think this one is one that breaks for the Republicans. Of course, Shaheen has been making up ground in a big way recently and one has to wonder if she is really ahead by 3-5% and has cracked the 50% mark.

I hope and pray we can pull this one out. I am almost certain that we will lose Arkansas and Colorado. If we lose this one too, it is just too much to overcome, IMHO.

[Cookie123]

Glad to hear that all those other commentators say Bush is having a positive effect for Republican candidates. Tonight that Dick Morris was on FOX talking with Rita Cosby, and he rambled on and on about all the damage Bush has done to Republicans, how (in Morris' view, of course) he should have been staying in the White House looking Presidential instead of being out on the hustings etc.

[finnman69]

CNN has Allard up....barely.

COLORADO

1. If the elections for Senator were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Tom Strickland, the Democrat (or) Wayne Allard, the Republican?

Strickland (Dem) Allard (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 45 47 8

Next,

2. If the elections for governor were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Rollie Heath, the Democrat (or) Bill Owens, the Republican?

Heath (Dem) Owens (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 32 62 6

^ Based on 807 registered voters, maximum margin of error ±4 percentage points

[MasonGal]

I know - I saw him on Rita's show, too. He kept talking about how Bush's numbers are falling - and are lower than Clinton's were during the Lewinski mess.

[Tennessean4Bush]

This president knows his domestic agenda and legacy are at stake. If Daschle controls the Senate for the next two years Bush will limp into the 2004 race and get virtually no judges appointed between now and then.

[pgkdan]

If they were to close before Dubya started campaigning and and they are still too close to call, is Bush only making them closer so they are even more too close to call?

Good point. For at least two weeks all of these TCTC races have been TCTC and we've been hearing that Bush is delivering a 2-6 point Bush Bump wherever he goes. I believe there is a Bush bump...the media wouldn't be giving him the credit for one if there wasn't something there.

Did you see Fox News this morning when they were discussing the NYT Generic Ballot poll? That poll always understates GOP strength by several % and today it had the GOP at 47% and the 'Rats at 40% and everyone seemed to fall all over themselves trying to discredit the poll and I've not heard it mentioned again. If these numbers are even close to being correct we're going to see a huge night for the GOP on Tuesday! I wonder what's up?

[Tennessean4Bush]

and are lower than Clinton's were during the Lewinski mess.

What?!! Last I checked Bush was in the low to mid 60s.

[MasonGal]

Hey - I'm just the messenger! :))

That's what he said, though - I know someone else on another thread heard Morris say the same thing on Rita's show.

[Tennessean4Bush]

No other poll is showing this, so it is probably an anomoly. It could, however, be out-front and we will know in about 48 hours what it was.

[pgkdan]

Either they think their vote does not count or they choose their candidates by which anti-depressant drug they take in the morning

Or they're just ornery Republicans and don't think it's anybody's dadburned business that they're gonna vote for Coleman, or Hutchinson or Sununu or Thune or Chambliss or...you get the idea.

[Pushi]

Dick Morris has changed recently. The Rats must have got sick and tired of him being pro-Republican and either threatened Arkancide or offered money to STFU.

[Rodney King]

CNN has Allard up....barely.

I guess everyone is so upset about Allard over that 1 poll were he was down like 11. People don't understand polls and the margin of error.

Lets say the poll is 46% for Allard, + or - 4%. That does not mean that Allard is betwwen 42 and 50. It means that there is a 95% chance that he is between 42 and 50.

Trendline polls tell a lot. One abberation does not. Sure, when you look at one poll you think "Gee, well there is only a 5% chance that it is wrong." However, There are probably 100 polls taken every single day. The statistics say that 5 every day are so wrong that they are not even within the margin or error.

[Rodm]

The current polls can not be acturate in the post 9-11 period, weighting ratios for r/d/i have changed. Give the Reps. a + 2.5% weighting shift and + 2% for energization. Tuesday will make the dems and the pollsters cry.

[JZoback]

I have never been polled. I sure would like too, though.

Every answer would be the exact oppsite of what I really think.

Just to screw up their numbers.

[rb22982]

No other poll is showing this, so it is probably an anomoly. It could, however, be out-front and we will know in about 48 hours what it was.

Actually, CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP have Repubs up +6 in their generic poll also. See more here and Here

[Otta B Sleepin]

Why the freak are they undecided?!!

Maybe it gives them a feeling of power when they keep hearing how the undecideds will decide the races.

[Txslady]

rofl!