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CNN has Allard up....barely.

COLORADO

1. If the elections for Senator were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Tom Strickland, the Democrat (or) Wayne Allard, the Republican?

Strickland (Dem) Allard (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 45 47 8

Next,

2. If the elections for governor were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Rollie Heath, the Democrat (or) Bill Owens, the Republican?

Heath (Dem) Owens (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 32 62 6

^ Based on 807 registered voters, maximum margin of error ±4 percentage points

CNN has Allard up....barely.

I guess everyone is so upset about Allard over that 1 poll were he was down like 11. People don't understand polls and the margin of error.

Lets say the poll is 46% for Allard, + or - 4%. That does not mean that Allard is betwwen 42 and 50. It means that there is a 95% chance that he is between 42 and 50.

Trendline polls tell a lot. One abberation does not. Sure, when you look at one poll you think "Gee, well there is only a 5% chance that it is wrong." However, There are probably 100 polls taken every single day. The statistics say that 5 every day are so wrong that they are not even within the margin or error.