11/3 Zogby Poll Final Numbers (Some Shockers)

Meet The Press | 11/03/02 | Zogby

[Ed_in_LA]

Minn: Mondale 50% Coleman 45%

TX: Kirk 48% Cornyn 49%

NJ: Lautenberg 54% Forrester 38%

Ark: Pryor 51% 40%

SD: Johnson 52% Thune 47%

GA: Cleland 49% Chambliss 49%

CO: Strickland 53% Allard 44%

NC: Bowles 46% Dole 52%

FL Gov: McBride 42% Bush 57%

[Diddle E. Squat]

IMHO people are putting way to much weight on rain affecting turnout. Ice and heavy snow might do that, but rain is more of just an inconvenience.

[Alamo-Girl]

The Democrats are only speaking confidently about changing the balance in governor positions. IMHO, that indicates how close these Senate races are - or, that they expect to lose control.

Altogether, it makes me a tad apprehensive about what the Democrats might pull in national policy and the media to swing it their way. Like the Daschle tantrum over nothing, is there anything they can do to capture the headlines?

OTOH, I suspect the Bush White House is all over it - especially Rove - and maybe, just maybe, they have a card or two to play in the next 48 hours.

If it were my decision, I'd run as many TV ads as possible with a Republican plea to get out and vote, ending with the simple words "let's roll" because IMHO - it creates a huge mental picture of personal responsibility and patriotism that appeals to the Reagan voters. But that's just me, and I don't know how it would play to other people...

[Diddle E. Squat]

Your posts are implying that Zogby's polls this year are either wrong or the result of inside knowledge of where the Democrats are planning vote fraud, and you reference the 2000 elections as 'proof'. The Democrats have made Florida the focus of their most intense GOTV and other shenanigans. If what you allege of Zogby is true, he wouldn't be showing Florida as being a cakewalk for Jeb.

[Brices Crossroads]

Huh? Rain always depresses turnout, esecially in Democrat areas and among less committed (ie- Democrat) voters. This is not anyone's opinion. It is a given, as close to an historical fact as you will ever encounter in politics.

[eddie willers]

I'll be stunned if Cleland loses in GA.

If he does, it will be on GW's coattails.

[Lael]

I disagree. Zogby's reputation is based on how well he predicts the outcome of races.

Zogby is the messenger---don't shoot the messenger.

The ECONOMY is prooving to be a bigger factor than we realized. Even Dubya knows that, and he is set to shake up his Economic Team after the Election.

About the only good thing to come out of this is that the DemocRATS get to live with the mess they made in California...Davis won't be a "successful" governor to run against Dubya in 2004.

On a more sour note, it isn't just the "usual suspects" in voter fraud with the absentee ballots...we here in Arizona have "bulletproof" voting machines, and now, for the first time, there are reports of HUNDREDS of voters (absentee) registered to the same single family house.

If Dubya doesn't crack down HARD on voter fraud, WE MAY BE LIVING in a DemocRAT HELL for the rest of the Century!!!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Yes, but by how much, and given the dynamics of these races, does it favor one party or another?

My guess is that it will have very little impact on the actual vote percentages. Too many broken-glass conservatives versus a strong GOTV that is in place rain or shine.

[Republican Wildcat]

Is this the same Zogby? I thought I read people saying how great he was when his results showed Republicans ahead? So we blast a pollster if his results aren't what we want?

When was this?

[The Raven]

Remember everyone had GW up 2-3 pts about this time. So add two points to the Dems to account for cheating, bussing, fraud, and other hard-to-measure factors.

Decision Dems!! Big time.

[eddie willers]

Great idea!
I'll repeat it in hopes that some media guy (or gal) sees it:

I'd run as many TV ads as possible with a Republican plea to get out and vote, ending with the simple words "let's roll"...

[Don Munn]

I remeber Zogby's final poll just before the election day 2000.

Everywhere that the RATS has surprising turn arounds is where the vote fraud happened! (FL, MO, etc.)

[Diddle E. Squat]

To be clearer, rain might depress turnout a bit, but won't have much impact on the percentage of votes for Democrats vs. Republicans.

[longtermmemmory]

It not cooking the polls by showing outright lead. The adjust up to a point. Zogby can't zero any opposing votes.


Clinton did adjusting with teacher competency exams. He surveyed the public to see what percentage they expect to fail and adjusted accordingly. it was like 5%. So the curve only alloved 5% to fail.

In an election if a republican is running away, they decrease the spread to keep up the competitive nature of the candidate. (mcbride is sliding fast. That is why bill Clinton is attempting to excite a group that votes 92% democrat. Never Forget Pinelas and Clinton!!!)

Look at the Mondale pole that used a sample of 51% democrats. That was a push poll to create the desired result.

At this point, even if the democrat candidate is loosing the race must be close so as not to drag down the rest of the party. Mcbride is dragging the rest of the candidates and they are complaing to the D party.

There was a thread here about McCall being the democrat's worst nightmare.

[Nataku X]

I do think Zogby vastly overestimates minority turnout,

Yes, it does. In 2000 a lot of my black friends were ENRAGED over the dragging death in Texas & blamed Bush for it. No, it doesn't make sense, but the point is that the blacks were all railed up over it and turned out in massive numbers (fortunately, in Florida, the Cuban turnout was abnormally high enough from Elian to tip the scale).

There isn't a similar issue this year. If the sniper had been white, we'd have been in pretty serious trouble, but the sniper being black seems to have taken a lot of enthusiasm out of them.

[ForGod'sSake]

We all remember the "Portrait of America" polls in 2000 which were way off track on the presidential and senate races; where do you see POA today?

IMO, POA didn't have the divination of Dim fraud that Zogby had, and still has. POA had to be eliminated because they were in fact dead on. Remember back at what happened in the "close" states. Big numbers rolled in at the last minute in virtually every case. FRAUD! The reason he's able to get it right more often than not, he knows how much the Dims operate. Looking at it another way; the Dims know how many votes they'll need to create.

For business reasons as much as professionalism, I don't think Zogby "cooks" his polls; he may be wrong but I can't believe its intentional.

Again IMO, Zogby knows what kind of voter turnout to expect from the cesspools. He's seen it again and again, and knows exactly how much creative voting to anticipate. IOW, he's got the Rat's number; he needs to turn state's evidence.

FWIW, I'm willing to bet he hits more than he misses this time around too, UNLESS Pubbies take to the cesspool precincts as watchers, etc. Damn shame; makes my butt want to take a dip o' snuff!

FGS

[Wyatt's Torch]

I don't have any inside information or anything. Just knowledge of the total ineptness of the Georgia Republican Party. The democrats will get out thier base far better than the Pubbies will.

[Alamo-Girl]

Jeepers! Thank you oh so very much!!!

[Route66]

Jeb has far outrun his opponent in the actual vote. They can only muster up so many fraudulent votes, and it only works in relatively close elections.

Even when they fire up their machine to do this, you see them play the game of only maufacturing the number of votes they think they will need to win. To minimize the risk they keep it as close as possible.

Do you remember in the last election that it took Oregon nearly a month to report their final numbers? One of the counties in southern Oregon had a computer problem that hindered their count. Bush was ahead in Oregon at that time and that county was going to go for Bush. The city of Portland suddenly could not complete their count for a miriad of reasons including spilled coffee on ballots and other such nonsense.

I really think the county in Southern Oregon was trying to force Potland to finish before they turned in their results, but they did not win. Weeks later, Portland came up with just the right number of votes to eliminate the Bush lead and win for the Dems several other very close key races and ballot measures.

This is done all over the country - all the time - in large cities controlled by Dems, but the races have to be relatively close.

[Sal]

Exactly. The administration should note EVERY race where Zogby favors Rats and where the OTHER polls are opposite and send the Guard there because that's where Zogby knows the Rats are going to cheat and by how much IMO.

[longtermmemmory]

al sharpton is in miami at krome detention center talking to the haitian's that unloaded in miami.

How about freepers carrying signs in miami saying only citizens can vote or illegal voting is a deportation offense.