Paul Begala called his book "It is still the economy stupid" and now John Zogby appears and says the same thing. I wonder if Carville thought this plan up? Mind you this poll was taken before the Wellstone mess that the democrats did the other night.
The new zogby poll is out and John says its the economy that is on voters minds and that America is at a tie again.
I hate to shatter zogbys dream but from what I see the defense of this nation is number one and we are about to see a republican landslide next week in the 2002 election. Just like the profilers were way off with the sniper, so is Zogby with the 2002 election.
You're dreaming.
The GOP will retain the House but the Senate will likely remain exactly the way it is, or even two Dem seats up.
One thing about Zogby, he has all the inside info on the Democratic Party dirty tricks when it comes to vote fraud and stealing elections. Never dismiss this guy out of hand.
The poll was conducted between 10/26-29. The Democrat campaign rally in Minnesota didn't take place till the evening of 10/29. I think the rally would qualify as a "late calamity" for the Dems.
Interesting that Zogby won't be doing another poll before the election ("quit while you're ahead" mentality?).
Is the RNC really going to let the rats get away with their failure to pass a security bill?
If the situation was reversed, do you really think the rats wouldn't be continuously crucifying the GOP as soft on defense?.
The GOP's inability to exploit major propagada opportunities is going to cost it in the long run.
I only hope that the younger generation of Republicans gain control soon and annihilate the rats once and for all.
It's not like it would be hard to do.
But I do know that the parties are doing lots of tracking polls. They tend to be very accurate.
There is no way the Repubicans can lose the House. You don't need polls to tell you that. The house is more gerrymandered than it was in 2000. If we did not lose the house in 2000 we are not going to lose it in 2002. The Democrats will have to do better than they did with Gore. There is far more Republican effort his year than their was in 2000. There is far less democratic effort. That can't be good for Democrats.
I can not imagine the economy being the big issue this year. The people who took baths in the stock market are mostly Republicans. The typical Democratic voter doesn't even have a checking account much less a broker. If the rich stock holders lost big bucks, the typical rank and file Democrat is happy not sad.
The high tech bubble burst on the left and right coasts... that is in Democrat territory. But that bubble has little effect in other areas of the US. The typical republican voter has not seen any bad economy that really effects him. In my own family my sons business has never been better. He is adding 7,000 square feet of space to his store. One of my step sons is a doctor. Business is great. My other step son is a chemist with a major manufacturing firm. He just got promoted to management. His company is expanding. He and my daughter just bought a new house. No one in the 'tator family is hurting.
Danger trumps overtime and job layoffs. I can tell you females were frightened by the sniper.They still are. I think the Walter Cronkite veiw of Saddam has zero traction. After the Gulf war no one over 25 believes that we would lose if go after Saddam alone. And trying to sell Americans that we are too weak or that we should subvert our national goals to the UN is just crazy. That is not where Americans go. Americans think we are in danger. When there is danger Americans want the danger removed. Living with danger because it is dangerous to remove it is not the way go get American support.
Lately I have been hearing lots of too close to call. We are not getting a lot of Demoratic party tracking polls released. But if they were good it would be much to the Democrats advantage to release them. The Media would really use them to help Democrats. Republicans have little reason to release good polls. The media will not play them well for Republicans. For republicans the generic too close to call is superior to releasing good news only to have the media spin it into bad.
I am also encouraged by Bush's efforts. No president can put his prestige on the line if he is apt or certain to lose. For 2 straight years all we would hear is bush is popular but that doesn't translate in to votes. That is why the Bush schedule is fluid. Presidents put their prestige on the line to increase the victory not to try to lessen a disaster.
There are also calls for McAuliffe to be replaced. Coaches about to win national championships do not have to face press rumors that they are going to be replaced.
Democrats have been trying to to change the agenda to domestic issues with not much luck. There were calls to fight bush on Iraq. Then there were calls to support him on Iraq but hedge. There have been strategy change after strategy change in this race. And all the changing had been Democratic changing.
People who are winning a race rarely change strategy. No one says...what we are doing is working so lets do something else. People do say what we are doing is not working lets try something else.
It is the Democrats who keep trying to change the topic ... to try to do something different. That usually means they are losing.
I think there is no way to lose the house. There is a good shot to take the senate. This is going to be a good Republican year.
Just try to find a painter, plumber, or mason who isn't booked for the next three months.
Just because this isn't a perfect job market for liberal guys in the northeast or on the west coast who decided to be computer jocks doesn't mean other people aren't working. Especially...the anti-smoking, anti-obesity trial lawyers.