But I do know that the parties are doing lots of tracking polls. They tend to be very accurate.
There is no way the Repubicans can lose the House. You don't need polls to tell you that. The house is more gerrymandered than it was in 2000. If we did not lose the house in 2000 we are not going to lose it in 2002. The Democrats will have to do better than they did with Gore. There is far more Republican effort his year than their was in 2000. There is far less democratic effort. That can't be good for Democrats.
I can not imagine the economy being the big issue this year. The people who took baths in the stock market are mostly Republicans. The typical Democratic voter doesn't even have a checking account much less a broker. If the rich stock holders lost big bucks, the typical rank and file Democrat is happy not sad.
The high tech bubble burst on the left and right coasts... that is in Democrat territory. But that bubble has little effect in other areas of the US. The typical republican voter has not seen any bad economy that really effects him. In my own family my sons business has never been better. He is adding 7,000 square feet of space to his store. One of my step sons is a doctor. Business is great. My other step son is a chemist with a major manufacturing firm. He just got promoted to management. His company is expanding. He and my daughter just bought a new house. No one in the 'tator family is hurting.
Danger trumps overtime and job layoffs. I can tell you females were frightened by the sniper.They still are. I think the Walter Cronkite veiw of Saddam has zero traction. After the Gulf war no one over 25 believes that we would lose if go after Saddam alone. And trying to sell Americans that we are too weak or that we should subvert our national goals to the UN is just crazy. That is not where Americans go. Americans think we are in danger. When there is danger Americans want the danger removed. Living with danger because it is dangerous to remove it is not the way go get American support.
Lately I have been hearing lots of too close to call. We are not getting a lot of Demoratic party tracking polls released. But if they were good it would be much to the Democrats advantage to release them. The Media would really use them to help Democrats. Republicans have little reason to release good polls. The media will not play them well for Republicans. For republicans the generic too close to call is superior to releasing good news only to have the media spin it into bad.
I am also encouraged by Bush's efforts. No president can put his prestige on the line if he is apt or certain to lose. For 2 straight years all we would hear is bush is popular but that doesn't translate in to votes. That is why the Bush schedule is fluid. Presidents put their prestige on the line to increase the victory not to try to lessen a disaster.
There are also calls for McAuliffe to be replaced. Coaches about to win national championships do not have to face press rumors that they are going to be replaced.
Democrats have been trying to to change the agenda to domestic issues with not much luck. There were calls to fight bush on Iraq. Then there were calls to support him on Iraq but hedge. There have been strategy change after strategy change in this race. And all the changing had been Democratic changing.
People who are winning a race rarely change strategy. No one says...what we are doing is working so lets do something else. People do say what we are doing is not working lets try something else.
It is the Democrats who keep trying to change the topic ... to try to do something different. That usually means they are losing.
I think there is no way to lose the house. There is a good shot to take the senate. This is going to be a good Republican year.