New Zogby Poll (zogby poll is wrong its not a tie or the economy stupid)

zogby ^ | 10/31/2002 | John Zogby

[TLBSHOW]

Released: October 31, 2002 Congressional Generic: Democrat 51% - GOP 49%; Most Influential Voter Issue: The Economy; Bush Job Performance Still Strong at 64%; Democrats Now Best Suited to Handle Economy, Latest Zogby America Poll Reveals

The race for control of Congress is neck and neck and too close to call, latest Zogby America Poll results show.

In the final Zogby America Poll before the November 5th elections, 51% of likely voters nationwide say they will vote Democratic in the upcoming Congressional elections, and 49% say they will vote for a Republican candidate. The poll, conducted of 1,006 likely voters nationwide between Oct. 26-29 has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%.

President George W. Bush continues to receive a strong job performance endorsement from likely voters, with a 64% positive, 35% negative job performance rating. In September, Bush received a 63% positive, 36% negative job performance rating, compared to the 64% positive, 36% negative rating he received in August.

Results also show that 49% say Bush deserves re-election, compared to 35% who say it is time for someone new.

Other Zogby America Poll results show that economy/jobs is again the clear number one issue that will be most influential in the way voters vote November 5th. Economy/jobs is the most influential issue by 20% of likely voters, followed by education at 12%, taxes at 10%, terrorism/safety and healthcare (both at 7%), and Social Security and the war, both at 5%. In September, economy/jobs was the number one issue most influential for 22% of those polled, followed by terrorism/safety (10%), taxes (10%) and the war (10%).

Latest Zogby America Poll results also show that Democrats are now judged the party best suited to handle the economy (43% - 41%). In June, Republicans were judged best suited to handle the economy (44%-38%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Barring a late calamity or anything else unforeseen, neither party goes into this election with the upper hand. The economy is the issue, as we have been saying for months, but the Democrats do not seem to be poised to take advantage. The last few Congressional elections have been virtually tied. Add another tie."

[Gophack]

Right, and this is good news for us because even when we're down three on the generic ballot, Republicans are winning because of the oversample in urban areas.

We'll keep the Congress and gain some seats. I don't know about the Senate. The Wellstone thing really screwed us ... I think we could have beaten him. But Carnahan looks very vulnerable. ...

[Eva]

The only thing that Zogby has been accurate on if the amount of voter fraud that the democrats have planned. Zogby was the only pollster to predict the Florida debacle, as well as Missouri and Wisconsin. The only way that he could have predicted that was to know how many dead people that the Democrats had registered.

Zogby polls the grave yards.

[deport]

Take all these Generic polls with several grains of salt..... Looks like the neither/other/don't know would win most of the time... LOL.

---

From Polling report
http://www.pollingreport.com/cong2002.htm

Zogby America Poll. Latest: July 19-21, 2002. N=1,003 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.
.
"In the congressional race in 2002, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither/ Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	7/19-21/02	34	35	31
	7/12-15/02	34	34	32
	5/28-30/02	34	34	32
	4/19-22/02 *	30	36	34
	3/25-27/02 *	33	31	36
	3/8-10/02 *	32	33	36
	3/1-3/02 *	29	33	38
	1/29-31/02	32	32	36
	1/21-23/02	29	32	39
	1/2-4/02	31	31	38
	12/17-19/01	32	29	40
	8/28-30/01	25	31	44
	6/24-26/01	28	38	34
	4/23-25/01	27	32	42
	3/27-28/01	28	30	42
	2/27-28/01	25	30	45
.
	* Among registered voters

[Phantom Lord]

Zogby was flamed on a minute by minute basis leading up to the election in 2000. He was using his special sauce, or he was partial to the dems, or this or that. Many here denounced his polls as unreliable when just days before the election he had it "too close to call".

Well, Zogby, and no other pollster in America had called the race right.

Zogby, wether you like him or hate him is without dobut the best in the business.

[KQQL]

If the GOP is tied with RATS in a generic poll, then the GOP will gain Seats in the house ......

[DrDeb]

According to the lead pollster for "Battleground", the Republicans will gain 1 or 2 seats in the House and will break even in the Senate. He also indicated that Republican voters seem MORE motivated this election than the Democrat voters!! [NOTE: He underscored that these gains should be viewed as an incredible accomplishment considering the historical precedent against such an outcome!]

Bottomline: REPUBLICANS MUST GET OUT THE VOTE!!! Are all of you scheduled to make your calls and/or walk your precincts?!

[TLBSHOW]

This new poll is pure demorat propaganda from the DNC mouth piece Zogby.

No matter what #1 thing to do is get everyone out to the polls and to vote. Vote out the rats. I want to hear a giant flushing sound next week as we flush the democrats down the toilet.

[VRWC_minion]

How is the man wrong by reporting the results of his poll ?

[princess leah]

Zogby has no way of including the power of prayer into his polling data and we have many freepers and others praying daily for this election! I prefer NOT to listen to polls but rather be on my knees praying for next Tuesday!

[TLBSHOW]

the poll is wrong, the issue is the safety of Americans and not the economy in fact the economy is improving right now and up. As he said in his story unless there is a calamity or anything else unforeseen, well that happened today right here. It has been reported the economy has gone up the last quarter.

[ambrose]

The GOP will retain the House but the Senate will likely remain exactly the way it is, or even two Dem seats up.

What's your problem, dude? We're not here to give our reasoned analysis based on hard facts. It is time to put on the poms poms !

[Otta B Sleepin]

Pollster John Zogby: "Barring a late calamity or anything else unforeseen, neither party goes into this election with the upper hand...

The poll was conducted between 10/26-29. The Democrat campaign rally in Minnesota didn't take place till the evening of 10/29. I think the rally would qualify as a "late calamity" for the Dems.

Interesting that Zogby won't be doing another poll before the election ("quit while you're ahead" mentality?).

[sinkspur]

We're not here to give our reasoned analysis based on hard facts.

Other than Missouri, I just don't see where we pick up a seat. OTOH, the GOP could easily lose ARK, CO, and NH. That's where the two seats for the Dem come from.

[Aria]

I'm voting straight Republican, I'll never vote for a Democrat after the impeachment debacle. But I seem to recall that Zogby was the only pollster who called the Presidental race correctly, since all the others thought it would be a wipeout of Gore.

[ambrose]

The chance for an upset in Georgia is quite real. I'd even give good odds on an upset in New Jersey. There has been a history of sharp and very late moves in public opinion in that state.

[SPRINK]

Sinkspur is right: We will be lucky to hold the house and will lose 2 in the Senate.

[jmaroneps37]

Zomby knows very well that at this point in a cycle the rats are usually plus 3 or more. Two more honest rat polls ABC and New week have us up which is amazing for this point in an election cycle.

[bradactor]

Zogby is a democrat. He tried to pull a stunt in 2000 to keep voters from voting and it worked to some degree but Bush still got elected. These push polls that are going on and I think Zogby is doing the same thing now are absolutely bogus.

Get out and vote. I voted today and was again glad for another time to vote straight Republican. The E slate machine is a lot easier to use and I am baffled that people cannot figure it out. The little old ladies where I was can help you. If they could figure out, anyone can.

Anyway, thes polls are ridiculous and to me have little credibility except for the way the media is using them.

[Doctor Stochastic]

He also predicted the GOP takeover in 1994 and correctly called the effect of the drunk driving citation for Bush.

Most other pollsters (especially the one popular on FR in 2000) have been very wrong.

The big guys do seem to do things better: Harris, Gallup, Roper, Mason-Dixon, Zobgy, and a few regional poll.

[Eva]

Zogby changed alot after 1994. I think that Clinton began to use him for some of his personal polling and Zogby developed a relatinship with the DNC.

Like I said, Zogby was the only one of the big pollsters to correctly predict the voter fraud in several states in the past election.